Occam's Retard

"Retarditas certa est."

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@FusionptCapital I 💕 market manipulation because if you can read a chart then it's right there. only an excuse for people who can't read price action. the biggest manipulation is that number have to go up.

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

😂

[EgotisticBaldie @EgotisticBaldie]

@lord_fed @AndyPippertond Is the pain trade up or down bro?

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@ResearchPulse1 @MarktEnjoyer And also yes, every BP not named Lilly has a weak obesity pipeline. The comparison to Lilly is the only one that matters.

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@ResearchPulse1 @MarktEnjoyer yeah I wouldn't compare the ubt vs reta numbers. too different populations and all China data comes with big asterisk. additionally, it will reach the market years late (assuming it does at all). Amycretin is 💩. big waste of time and $ to arrive late with an intolerable molecule

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

did your furu call 7/30 a bear market rally, anon?

[Fed @lord_fed]

Solid bear market rally today

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@P3rditions @lord_fed 😂 that's quite a skill!

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@MarktEnjoyer @ResearchPulse1 given how weak their internal programs are, making a good acquisition is the best thing they can do for shareholders. that's probably the only thing that saves them.

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@A_May_MD @AAMortazavi it looks like the pill has already hit a ceiling at a 1 million scripts per month run rate. that's roughly $2 billion USD annualized revenue. not going to move the needle.

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@jzrdan they don't have a next generation of drugs. they need to go buy them from someone.

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@ResearchPulse1 Oral literally doesn't matter.

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@ZachShurtleff @JCanNuSH same thing when they accused hims of pushing unsafe drugs and all this noise and then turn around and partner with them.

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@JCanNuSH I posted about this before, if they want to lean into oral wegovy they would need to scale manufacturing by an unfeasible amount if using the current processes. so I guess this would be the sol'n? I'll be honest I don't know enough about the manufacturing to say how it compares.

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@JCanNuSH @rn_flex they need any positive news they can get. if it was good they would say something now.

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

If you're ever looking at smth thinking "the market is just misunderstanding XYZ", you better think long and hard. Bc market is right most of the time. ofc I've made money also recognizing when it was wrong before it adjusted, but typically, that's a dangerous way of thinking.

[ResearchPulse @ResearchPulse1]

Market completely misreads $NVO Q2 ER

Huge upgrade of both revenue and profit.

Gross margin is reported 78.2%. Down from 82.7% last year.

This could easily be miscalculated as low margin on wegovy pill.

BUT in Q2 NVO did another smaller re-org in supply chain and stoped a new capacity expansion fill finish project in Denmark. In Odense.

They took a non cash 3B dkk writ down on capacity. They don’t mention specifically the project in Odense. But it fits with timing and an amount there around.

If we deduct that 3B then gross profit would have been 82% vs 82.7% last year.

During Q2 NVO had said to analyst that wegovy pill margin would be the same as gross margin reported earlier.

Wegovy revenue hit exactly analysts concensus at 22.7B. But it was actually wegovy injections in IO (all markets except US) that surprised.

Seems as IQVIA has overstated wegovy injections in US.

But the main surprise Ozempic was up. Some adjustments on previous rebates in US. So it landed 3B dkk or 20% higher than my estimate.

But Ozempic also did better in IO. Higher volumes.

Overall the numbers are a bit “muddy”. Ozempic US does move things. But even excluding that, ER was much better than anyone had expected.

IO sales up by 10%!

One very interesting information is FDa has accepted filing of MASH indication with wegovy pill. FDA decision in Q1 2027

If wegovy pill gets MASH indication, that’s a way for many to get insurance coverage for wegovy pill. That could potentially be a boost for 2027

With this Q2 ER SP should be UP and not down.

I expect less negative reactions tomorrow morning when stock exchange in Denmark opens. And then it’s up to management to shed more light on what ever concerns investor might have.

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

good post for $nvo bag holders today who can't understand why their stock is down on raised guidance

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

People who cry because they can't understand why their XYZ shitco is down make me think of the saying: "If you're sitting at a poker table and after 10 minutes you can't figure out who the sucker is, get up and walk away; it's you."

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@ResearchPulse1 nobody cares about gm% or writedowns. reading the price action vs script growth and recognizing they didn't jive told you what to expect:

https://t.co/RbJvyMh6di

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

$NVO buying 45p going into earnings as they've run up on nonsensical pill volume story and i think earnings will force reconciliation when they fail to guide as price action implies. An aside, I've never look at yearly open prices before but someone mentioned it so added to chart

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@rn_flex 🤘

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@flippyfloppy52 @ResearchPulse1 To follow up on this. Today they said pill scripts reached 5M cumulative, which is a 1M/mo rate since June when they said they reached 3M. From may to june it was also 1M/mo. So no net growth on a per mo. basis. It looks like mkt is saturated and new adds are just offsetting DCs

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@flippyfloppy52 @ResearchPulse1 the problem is not mgns (variable cogs is v small). the problem is that the oral mkt has already saturated at current prices, and even if grwth reacc's, they can't mfr enough API to replace a meaningful portion of injectable rev. https://t.co/SqegkkeMoQ

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

$NVO oral wegovy numbers still support the market being saturated and this is now with >3 weeks of medicare GLP-1 bridge. Just barely challenging the modeled plateau, which is frozen w/ data from wk1-22 only. Though note the recent print is also not the largest absolute deviation

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@rn_flex Noninferior just means the lower band of 95CI excludes the prespec'd difference. We already know cagrisema delivers worse weight loss than tzp, so stating it's noninferior here is a formality of the statistics, not a meaningful statement. Esp when it's still numerically worse

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

$NVO in early may they said cumulative pill scripts= 2M. June 7 they say "surpassed 3M". that's 1M/mo. Now today they say 5M. Still 1M per month. That confirms my "zero growth" conclusion, they've saturated at a 1M/mo run rate (~$2B ann rev or ~5% of total at current ASP)

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

$NVO oral wegovy numbers still support the market being saturated and this is now with >3 weeks of medicare GLP-1 bridge. Just barely challenging the modeled plateau, which is frozen w/ data from wk1-22 only. Though note the recent print is also not the largest absolute deviation