Occam's Retard

"Retarditas certa est."

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

$NVO $HIMS symmetry here. A common heuristic is a >=candle in the opposite direction breaks a trend. NVO needs a 16-20% + gap up day (HIMS already had back in feb). Both have declining 200 dma, HIMS below, NVO testing. I'm long HIMS puts, looking to buy back longer-dated NVO puts

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

These are fully closed out +200% gain $NVO

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

If you're ever looking at smth thinking "the market is just misunderstanding XYZ", you better think long and hard. Bc market is right most of the time. ofc I've made money also recognizing when it was wrong before it adjusted, but typically, that's a dangerous way of thinking.

[ResearchPulse @ResearchPulse1]

Market completely misreads $NVO Q2 ER

Huge upgrade of both revenue and profit.

Gross margin is reported 78.2%. Down from 82.7% last year.

This could easily be miscalculated as low margin on wegovy pill.

BUT in Q2 NVO did another smaller re-org in supply chain and stoped a new capacity expansion fill finish project in Denmark. In Odense.

They took a non cash 3B dkk writ down on capacity. They don’t mention specifically the project in Odense. But it fits with timing and an amount there around.

If we deduct that 3B then gross profit would have been 82% vs 82.7% last year.

During Q2 NVO had said to analyst that wegovy pill margin would be the same as gross margin reported earlier.

Wegovy revenue hit exactly analysts concensus at 22.7B. But it was actually wegovy injections in IO (all markets except US) that surprised.

Seems as IQVIA has overstated wegovy injections in US.

But the main surprise Ozempic was up. Some adjustments on previous rebates in US. So it landed 3B dkk or 20% higher than my estimate.

But Ozempic also did better in IO. Higher volumes.

Overall the numbers are a bit “muddy”. Ozempic US does move things. But even excluding that, ER was much better than anyone had expected.

IO sales up by 10%!

One very interesting information is FDa has accepted filing of MASH indication with wegovy pill. FDA decision in Q1 2027

If wegovy pill gets MASH indication, that’s a way for many to get insurance coverage for wegovy pill. That could potentially be a boost for 2027

With this Q2 ER SP should be UP and not down.

I expect less negative reactions tomorrow morning when stock exchange in Denmark opens. And then it’s up to management to shed more light on what ever concerns investor might have.

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

good post for $nvo bag holders today who can't understand why their stock is down on raised guidance

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

People who cry because they can't understand why their XYZ shitco is down make me think of the saying: "If you're sitting at a poker table and after 10 minutes you can't figure out who the sucker is, get up and walk away; it's you."

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@ResearchPulse1 nobody cares about gm% or writedowns. reading the price action vs script growth and recognizing they didn't jive told you what to expect:

https://t.co/RbJvyMh6di

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

$NVO buying 45p going into earnings as they've run up on nonsensical pill volume story and i think earnings will force reconciliation when they fail to guide as price action implies. An aside, I've never look at yearly open prices before but someone mentioned it so added to chart

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@rn_flex 🤘

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@flippyfloppy52 @ResearchPulse1 To follow up on this. Today they said pill scripts reached 5M cumulative, which is a 1M/mo rate since June when they said they reached 3M. From may to june it was also 1M/mo. So no net growth on a per mo. basis. It looks like mkt is saturated and new adds are just offsetting DCs

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@flippyfloppy52 @ResearchPulse1 the problem is not mgns (variable cogs is v small). the problem is that the oral mkt has already saturated at current prices, and even if grwth reacc's, they can't mfr enough API to replace a meaningful portion of injectable rev. https://t.co/SqegkkeMoQ

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

$NVO oral wegovy numbers still support the market being saturated and this is now with >3 weeks of medicare GLP-1 bridge. Just barely challenging the modeled plateau, which is frozen w/ data from wk1-22 only. Though note the recent print is also not the largest absolute deviation

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@rn_flex Noninferior just means the lower band of 95CI excludes the prespec'd difference. We already know cagrisema delivers worse weight loss than tzp, so stating it's noninferior here is a formality of the statistics, not a meaningful statement. Esp when it's still numerically worse

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

$NVO in early may they said cumulative pill scripts= 2M. June 7 they say "surpassed 3M". that's 1M/mo. Now today they say 5M. Still 1M per month. That confirms my "zero growth" conclusion, they've saturated at a 1M/mo run rate (~$2B ann rev or ~5% of total at current ASP)

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

$NVO oral wegovy numbers still support the market being saturated and this is now with >3 weeks of medicare GLP-1 bridge. Just barely challenging the modeled plateau, which is frozen w/ data from wk1-22 only. Though note the recent print is also not the largest absolute deviation

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@flippyfloppy52 those are all your trades on it? holy shit that's a lot 😂

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@flippyfloppy52 I worked it out before the fact though. And shared it quite vocally. So I can talk about it 😂

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@flippyfloppy52 😂

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@flippyfloppy52 Nice. I traded some $tgtx this morning my irr was 781%

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

$TGTX trimming some of this at +4.2 gain%

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

It's kind of retarded but I bought some $TGTX here. Tight stop

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@bioinvestor24 @eugen1359 @ResearchPulse1 I don't think margins on the pill is the problem and it actually gets too much attention. the bigger problem is there's a hard ceiling on the opportunity between limited market size (inferior format, not many true needlephobes) and the amt required API vs mfring capacity

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@bioinvestor24 I added more to my vktx today in that article with the Doustdar quote about making a bigger acquisitions 😂

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@eugen1359 @bioinvestor24 I have been posting about this since last week, it was obvious that a raise was expected as the stock could run up on stupid ridiculous pill volume narrative and that economic reality wouldn't be able to deliver https://t.co/RbJvyMh6di

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

$NVO buying 45p going into earnings as they've run up on nonsensical pill volume story and i think earnings will force reconciliation when they fail to guide as price action implies. An aside, I've never look at yearly open prices before but someone mentioned it so added to chart

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@flippyfloppy52 😂 I assumed it was an intern fat-fingering it. usually prematurely released earnings are not good. but if they just thought their results were so great they couldn't wait to share, then yeah could be that too

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@flippyfloppy52 I think process-trusting over the past few years has cost a lot of people a lot of money with this management team. it's still the same clueless board who ultimately controls what happens.

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

just remember while your furu he's trying to post-hoc narratize why $nvo dropped on earnings, I explained it before the fact, anon

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

besides the chart, price implies earnings + revs to trough and too much attn to pill volumes, forgetting basic R= QxP, when P is collapsing, and they won't offset their losing inj biz w/ low priced, high-API pills that require fasting (& int'l expansion saving them is a joke too)

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

Adding a small amt $LLY on this kneejerk sympathy rxn to $NVO release

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

@flippyfloppy52 Their head of r&d doesn't know what day it is. Wasting far too much time and $ on inferior drugs while LLY expands its lead. I'd like to see them make a real transformative acq like buy $VKTX They signal willingess but talk is cheap https://t.co/0v3PKuiUhk

[Occam's Retard @ObvsRetardation]

I would be a lot less bearish on $NVO if they made a solid acquisition like $vktx. I might even have to flip long 😂 I estimate the NPV of their semaglutide franchise at ~$80-100B. The gap has to be made up by mgmt decision making quality. so far they haven't shown that.