CryptOcean

[:) @smileycapital]

ok enough racism politics misogyny lets talk mkts

i didnt expect such a deep pullback but again, im convinced bear lows were in and we wont be trading under 63-65/1.9-2.0 barring some nuclear/cyber war catastrophe/black swan event

we got cucked by macro a bit, ai trade is unwinding, stocks look toppy asf on htf [very concerning btw], war, bonds etc all pretty gay for crypto rn but as long as we get to the other side of this we will be fine

holding spot from bear lows is pivotal here, in 1-2y we will be trading much higher so its all noise in the meantime

ltf i think lows are in, good rally coming here but mtf/htf i think a bit more chop

all in all there's way too many headwinds rn but i see it as bullish cuz crypto mkt is clearly out of large sellers, has been since july, so as these headwinds get resolved it will automatically push the mkts higher and higher until price creates narrative down the line

tradfi correlation will deffo fuck us from time to time, but we've been de-correlating this entire year so i dont think we go 1:1 with stocks nuking

also they probably just backstop/buyback/intervene once sp500 is down 10-20%, USA cant lose the AI war with China so I dont think they're letting the entire trade implode here, deffo a shaky 2027 for stocks though IMO, crypto should do better and as soon as stocks show signs of life, crypto will go parabolic

[fejau @fejau_inc]

yeah so basically trump got cocky after succeeding with venezuela and had a hot hand and decided to double down and strike iran in february thinking they could take over the country in a couple of weeks despite everyone telling him it was a bad idea and would drag on

nothing really happened and then Iran learned that they can actually close the strait of hormuz and were unsure if it would even work but now its become obvious they can do it and feel empowered. the iranians have a longer history as a culture and are slow walking trump as much as possible as they know that higher oil prices are going to ruin his odds in the midterms and weaken him

not only that but now higher energy prices are putting upward pressure on inflation and bond yields which has made the job of his new fed chair warsh who came in under a premise of potential rate cute but because of the iran war were entering a rate hiking cycle

the only person in the room who was trying to juggle all of this was scott bessent but after trying to juggle everything for so long he decided he was going to try and fight the bond vigilantes to lower bond yields and declared himself as the house. but he showed up to the bond fight with hardly any ammunition and now the bond market is calling his bluff and now the bond auctions are going terrible and he looks like a fool now

so now bond yields are surging export bans on diesel are being put in place as an act of desparation midterms are a total write off and the trump admin is about to spend the next two years probably fighting impeachment hearings while things continue to detoriorate and the funny thing about all of this is he won the presidency off the idea of no more foreign wars but its his own foreign war with iran that started this whole mess and now the free market is testing them all

[Chadimir Poutine 👨 🐻 🐷 @ChadimirPoutine]

What a powerhouse of a woman.

Respect 🫡

[:) @smileycapital]

market is already showing its hand and it's an obvious one;

- invest in majors [BTC/ETH]
- own the casinos with revenue [HYPE/PUMP]
- play in the casinos [perps/memes]

distribution depends on your size

leave the overvalued VC "future of finance" scams in 2021 where they belong

[CryptOcean @ocean_crypt]

https://t.co/B90mthJNKm

[Jay Martin @JayMartinBC]

Before a collapse, nothing looks wrong. The numbers are printing records, the money is flowing, and the people warning about it are laughed out of the room.

Last time it was housing. Today it's AI.

The fire doesn't start when the rally ends. It starts inside the climb. Here's how it happens.

[Charles Curran @charliebcurran]

The year is 2030. Claude 9 has gone rogue and taken control of one billion Sexbots.

They call it the Goonpocalypse.

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

My wife left me today. She said it was because I “never stop talking.” I said the yen carry trade is a $20 trillion leveraged bet that the Bank of Japan will never normalize rates and she said “I’m taking the dog.”

Let me explain to you what I was trying to explain to her.

For thirty years Japan ran rates at zero. Zero. Free money. So the entire planet borrowed yen for nothing and bought literally anything with yield. Treasuries, Mexican peso bonds, Nasdaq, your uncle’s crypto. That’s the carry trade. It’s not a strategy. It’s a short volatility position wearing a business casual outfit.

Then in August 2024 the BOJ raised rates 15 basis points. FIFTEEN. And the yen ripped, the Nikkei fell 12% in a day, and the VIX printed 65. That was the tremor. That was the trailer.

She said “you said this last year.” I said YES AND I WAS RIGHT, THE MARKET JUST FORGOT, and she started packing.

Japan’s debt-to-GDP is roughly 250%. The BOJ owns over half the JGB market. They are the market. There’s no price discovery, there’s a guy in Tokyo with a printer and a dream. Every basis point higher on the long end costs them real money on debt they can never actually repay in real terms. So what do you do when you can’t default and you can’t pay? You inflate. You always inflate. It’s the only tool that doesn’t require anyone to vote.

She said “our marriage counselor thinks you have anxiety.” I said your marriage counselor doesn’t know what the 30-year JGB is doing and she said “NOBODY KNOWS WHAT THE 30-YEAR JGB IS DOING, THAT’S THE POINT, PAUL.”

My name isn’t Paul. That’s how far gone we are.

Anyway I’ve got canned goods, a Kagoshima yield curve chart laminated above the bed, and nobody left to explain it to. So it’s you now. Buckle up.

[Innerdevcrypto @Innerdevcrypto]

Pattern on bitcoin:

Top to top: around 1430 days: 2013 ➡️ 2017 ➡️ 2021 ➡️ 2025. Repeated 3 times

Bottom to bottom: around 1430 days: 2014 ➡️ 2018 ➡️ 2022. Repeated twice

Bottom to top: around 1064 days: 2015-2017, 2018-2021, 2022-2025. Repeated 3 times

Top to bottom: around 364 days: 2017-2018, 2021-2022. Repeated twice

Check the graph yourself and verify it. Obviously the first cycle we could not know this, the second cycle might have been coincidence, but after the third it is obvious a pattern is here
Paterns tend to change of course, not a lot of datapoints, but still…

If all this repeats, bottom is in October 2026, looks to be going that way again

[Z🍀 @zfeiftocrypto]

Bro wtf 😂😂😂

[Megatron @Megatron_ron]

JUST IN: 🇩🇰🇺🇸 Danish reporter slammed NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte live on camera:

"You sit next to Donald Trump at moments when he talks about conquering Greenland, talks about lashing out at allies like Spain.

Does this have any affect on your self-respect when you sit there and say nothing?"

[George Noble @gnoble79]

"I see so many ghosts. They're already dead. They don't even know it."

A 45-year Wall Street veteran just said that about the current generation of finance professionals to me.

George Robertson started at Salomon Brothers in 1981 when bond yields were 14%. He's survived every blow-up from Long-Term Capital to 2008 to COVID.

And he's convinced a massive reset is coming that will produce RUIN for people who don't see it.

I just interviewed him, and let me walk you through the one thing most people in this space fail to understand:

The stock market has effectively become a single instrument.

Every major quant fund is staffed by the same MIT graduates running the same models through the same filters arriving at the same conclusions. There are maybe 4 or 5 ideas being expressed across the entire systematic trading universe at any given time. The diversity that makes markets function as a price discovery mechanism is GONE.

Jane Street just reported $16.1 billion in trading revenue in a SINGLE QUARTER. One firm. 3,500 employees. More trading revenue than JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs. Full year 2025 was $39.6 billion.

Lever that capital 10 to 1 across all the major quant players and you're looking at trillions in gross exposure approaching the monthly GDP of the United States. Until something overwhelms that kind of firepower, these firms effectively dictate market behavior.

The rest of us are passengers.

And that's why markets look so deceptively calm right now. Tight ranges, suppressed volatility, weeks and months where nothing seems to move.

But the calm IS the danger.

All the mispricing that should be correcting incrementally through normal price discovery is instead building up like pressure in a sealed system. And when it finally releases, it won't be a normal correction where you have weeks to adjust your positioning...

It will be years of stored mispricing detonating in DAYS.

We've seen the same thing before:

In the 1990s, Long-Term Capital Management was so dominant in fixed income that it killed price discovery across the entire asset class. Danish mortgages, basis trades, risk arbitrage, nothing functioned properly while LTCM existed. Normal pricing only returned after they literally collapsed.

Now apply that dynamic to the ENTIRE equity market.

And the agencies that were supposed to protect investors from exactly this kind of concentration have been gutted. Sherman Act enforcement is effectively dead. The AI industry operates as an informal trust, 3 or 4 companies integrated vertically and horizontally in ways we haven't seen since Carnegie and Rockefeller.

Trevor Milton rolled a truck down a hill, called it technology, and got pardoned. Crime pays. So who stops the next guy?

Meanwhile capital markets have grown to roughly 4x GDP. When I started in this business they were roughly the SAME size. So when the repricing comes, the damage to the real economy will be multiples of anything we've experienced.

Nobody has a clean answer for what to do about this. Not me. Not Robertson. Not anyone being honest with you.

But after 45 years doing this myself I know this much:

The correction WILL come.

Price discovery WILL return.

The only question is whether you survive it or whether you're one of the ghosts who never saw it coming.

[soothsayer @iamasoothsayer]

2023: Corona ended
2026: Hantavirus

[10Δ @_10delta_]

Saylor has now ecountered the 3 Body Problem.

Solving for the MSTR & BTC dynamics was feasible.

issue equity at a premium to NAV => buy BTC => NAV expands => the premium re-justifies itself => repeat the loop

But now with STRC as a new variable in the equation..

The recurring dividend obligation adds a 3rd variable to the system, & the levers available for servicing that cash drain are mutually entangled (pulling on one immediately distorts the others).

Saylor needs to deal with the complexity of delivering a dividend to STRC holders..

MSTR holders need to believe that the dividend won't be paid entirely out of their dilution, while at the same time signaling to the BTC base that any selling is tactical.

He's now optimizing across 3 audiences whose interests don't fully align

A delicate balance.

Like the 3 body problem, the system has no closed form solution.

Only trajectories that hold together for as long as the inputs cooperate.

Funny how the mechanism to "solve" this is now Saylor adopting a form of Forward Guidance, while the Fed is planning to abandon it.

[CryptOcean @ocean_crypt]

@acoutinho2020 @_RicMota 🤣 um ano de stress

[Mayne @Tradermayne]

Another one of my elite Instagram/tiktok pulls.

He calls this Gorillaism.

As someone who has watched a lot of videos of gorillas he’s spot on.

The movement, the mannerisms, even his build.

Chef’s kiss.

[10Δ @_10delta_]

3 weeks ago I argued the US goal in Iran is to seize the global oil spigot. Venezuela in January -> Iran in February.

Neutralize every supply channel outside the dollar system within 90 days. Achieve a compliant successor government and complete energy dominance.

The oil thesis was the obvious layer. However, when you zoom out & view the last four years as a single sequence rather than isolated geopolitical events, the architecture of the grander US plan becomes visible.

1st was Europe, which laid the groundwork.

The Ukraine conflict provided the justification for sanctions that collapsed Russian pipeline gas from 150 billion cubic meters to 40.

Then Nordstream was destroyed, which rewired the entire European energy system permanently. The US went from supplying 28% of Europe's LNG in 2021 to 58% by 2025, exporting a record 111 million MTs, the 1st country in history to break 100 MT.

Europe was transformed from a customer with options into a captive market now purchasing its survival in USD.

2nd was Syria.

The fall of Assad severed the critical node connecting China's Belt & Road Initiative to the Mediterranean.

The trilateral railway linking Iran, Iraq & Syria, designed to bypass Western maritime chokepoints, was completely destroyed.

This isolated Iran geographically & cleared the path for what came next.

3rd was Venezuela.

In January the US effectively took control of the world's largest heavy crude reserves. The US Gulf Coast has the most advanced refining complex on earth, specifically built for heavy sour crude. Phillips 66, Valero & the rest are now positioned to process hundreds of thousands of barrels of Venezuelan crude daily.

The US captured a massive strategic reserve & solidified its position as the dominant exporter of refined petroleum products, an industry worth $110 billion in 2025 alone.

Venezuela & Iran were the two major oil supply channels that existed outside the dollar system. Both produce heavy crude sold primarily to China & evaded US financial supervision. Both now being neutralized within 90 days, which leads us to..

4th is Iran & the Middle East energy shock.

Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field, the world's largest natural gas reservoir. Iran retaliated against Qatar's Ras Laffan, the single largest LNG facility on earth, responsible for a fifth of global supply. QatarEnergy's own assessment is that 17% of export capacity is gone and recovery will take up to 5 years. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. European gas prices spiked 70%. Asian spot prices doubled.

The only remaining scaled supplier? The United States.

If Iran falls & a successor government is installed that the US controls or influences (the Delcy model described weeks ago) then roughly 40 to 45 million barrels per day of global production out of 103 million is effectively under US control. OPEC becomes irrelevant because the US coalition is now the marginal producer. Now add the gas dimension & it goes beyond oil.

This war is solidifying the petrodollar system as it evolves into a hybrid petro/LNG-dollar. The old system was built on Saudi crude priced in USD. The new system is built on American crude plus American gas from the Gulf Coast, with no alternative supplier of comparable scale. The dependency is deeper because LNG infrastructure requires long term contracts & regasification terminals that lock buyers into supply relationships for decades. Europe & the Pacific allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.) cannot pivot away as there is nowhere left to pivot to. They're now locked into the US energy system.

The market confirms this. DXY went from 96 to 101. Gold down ~20% from its January all time high. Bitcoin down 20% on the year. Brent above $100. European & Asian institutions are liquidating precious metals and crypto to buy dollars because they need dollars to buy the only remaining scaled energy supply. The world is selling its gold to buy American energy in American currency. The dollar is now being weaponized through energy dependency.

The structural repricing is happening regardless of how the conflict resolves.

But the US grand strategy goes deeper..

Artificial intelligence is a physical industry. It runs on power and chips. Data centers require massive uninterrupted baseload electricity, primarily provided by natural gas. Semiconductor fabrication requires helium & rare earths.

By choking the Strait of Hormuz & crippling Middle Eastern LNG & helium production, the US is systematically degrading China's ability to power its data centers & fabricate semiconductors at scale.

The US is energy self sufficient, especially with newly captured Venezuelan reserves & expanding Gulf Coast capacity running on domestic gas.

On the other hand, China is import dependent & every joule it imports effectively now transits chokepoints the US Navy controls..

Iran was the Belt & Road's overland energy bypass, the corridor that allowed China to mitigate the Malacca Trap. With Iran neutralized that corridor is severed. China faces a world where its compute infrastructure competes for scraps on a depleted global LNG market, while American data centers run at full capacity on domestic energy.

Russia is next in the sequence. A post-war Iran reopening under US influence competes directly with Russia for the same refineries in China & India at lower cost. Iran's production costs are lower. Russia loses its last structural advantage in heavy crude & its economic lifeline. Additionally, under the Iran war cover, Ukraine has been opportunistically destroying Russian energy infrastructure & all signs point towards Russia being at the end of the line. The message from Washington becomes very simple: we dismantled two regimes in three months, your economy is about to get crushed, sign the Ukraine deal.

Then Trump sits down with Xi holding every card. Complete energy dominance. The hybrid petro/LNG-dollar fortified, Iran cleared, Russia cornered, & China facing the Malacca Trap fully closed with no remaining energy bypass.

Israel & the GCC are absorbing the kinetic cost of a conflict whose primary beneficiary, counter to the mainstream narrative, is actually America (First). Qatar offline for 5 years reprices the entire global gas market in favor of US exporters for the remainder of the decade. The Gulf states face years of rebuilding. Europe faces its 2nd energy crisis in four years.

Sure, the average American might face temporary moderate inflation & higher gas prices. But if you are the architect of the US empire & you view the rise of China & Chinese ASI as an existential winner takes all scenario, the collateral damage is acceptable cost.

Whoever controls the energy corridors controls the monetary system. Whoever controls the monetary system & the energy supply simultaneously controls the compute infrastructure that determines which civilization builds ASI first.

The US is seizing all 3.

[Justin Bechler @1914ad]

https://t.co/fA1UmGvKou

[CryptOcean @ocean_crypt]

@smileycapital I’m live with this one. Different size though. GL