ochlocracy

Premature accumulator. Mediocre kwant. Horrible trader, but superb vol hedgeoor.

[gexbot @thegexbot]

when we talk about scalping reversions against long gamma, this is what we mean.

no prediction of the tape bomb or "news", just measuring positioning as accurately as possible in real-time, and trading against it.

of course these are rare conditions brought about by exogenous events, but the content of the news doesn't matter at all, only that it brings volatility.

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@RocketRandlHood vol traders closing at 95+ delta. 👋🏄‍♂️

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@spotgamma No, not weird. When spot grinds up +2.5 sigma over 10 days dragging ivols up 10+ pts you slap the shit out of those bids till spot is back where it belongs.

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@MenthorQpro The most informative thing you've every posted. 🍸👍

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@LyfeOfPELK Eh... prob won't today unless skew presents an opportunity...ask again in 4-6 mkt days.

Will likely leg into a short calendar with Oct. 31 ~30Δ as the long.

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@LyfeOfPELK Easy: Sell more calls & hold till zero.

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@spotgamma

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@skewbot Technically...

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@thegexbot FURUs got to FURU.

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

I agree with your analysis from a delta perspective, but there is a vol component brewing right now. Review the monthly fixed strike skew over the past 6 months. Take note of 30dte vs. Sept./Oct. vs. Dec./Jan. vs. 365dte. Watch left tails into this week (include weeklies here), and note the levels compared to historical ivols/hvols. Consider we are within 30dte of ER. What happens to those tails hedges after ER? Most often, we "slide down the skew" to the nadir. But there are enough lifted tails across expirations for vol to crush and spot remains flat.

TLDR; watch for skew to tilt in $90.

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@skewbot

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@thegexbot 🤣WAT?

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@thegexbot Jiggles™

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@thegexbot

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@thegexbot Badge of honor, respect, and threat to their business. Congrats 🎉

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@julie_wade Rules are rules. https://t.co/clIv5V8yo7

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

#ES_F $SPX slamming the ceiling at +3σ on 20 day is a red light special in 0dte land. Hasn't closed above since... ever?

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

#ES_F $SPX slamming the ceiling at +3σ on 20 day is a red light special in 0dte land. Hasn't closed above since... ever?

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@LyfeOfPELK

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@doc_mcgraw Or... here me out; there is just less demand for those OTM calls. Skew has been driven so low the past couple years. And now that ivols vs annualized hvols have finally come down from COVID it makes sense for things to find their balance. Hedge that vega. 😉

[ochlocracy @ochlocracy]

@thegexbot Dat dip on put skew...