If you are not familiar with the #bigflip thesis, coined by the great @INArteCarloDoss, the bottom line is this:
-Labor inflation is entrenched and remains very hot (holding core inflation high)
-Goods will inflect higher (leading to more volatile inflation
The consequences are:
Most important driver of this equity rally (NDX was up 10% YTD as of yesterday, it’s best start of a year in 20 years) is the drop in rates volatility. When this reverses, so will this rally.
@Mo_Semx@RealPropTrader Your stop loss is only there for protection of rare events. The invalidation of your thesis is what should make you abandon a trade
HOW TO IMPROVE AS A TRADER
All of trading comes down to this simple statistical formula
EV = (Win rate * size of winner) - ({1-win rate} * size of loser)
As long as your trades are +EV, your edge will play out over a large enough sample size
Here’s an exercise you should do
After reviewing 1500 applications, interviewing tons of traders and hiring a small percentage of that, here are some of my notes on what a good trading candidate looks like: