The Odds Merchant

Probability Trader.
Currently building an AFL Player Prop forecasting model.
Sports Betting & Fantasy games.

[The Odds Merchant @odds_merchant]

@MatterOfStats The Swan is just an Eagle with a barrister's wig

[The Odds Merchant @odds_merchant]

@RalphyHeraldSun Have a session with players tackling umpires so they can see how difficult it is to "make an effort" when they get an arm pinned immediately after taking possession

[The Odds Merchant @odds_merchant]

@Ruud3a @HarryTradesYT Yeah there's still lots of improvement needed on the UI and a few other things but as a game, I like the concept.

- All players are accessible to everyone
- Unique picks are rewarded
- Trading is viable
- There's no obvious strategy to play
- Free to play mode works well

[The Odds Merchant @odds_merchant]

@MatterOfStats Lowest scoring round since when?

[The Odds Merchant @odds_merchant]

@RalphyHeraldSun To start with, scrape round 0 and subs. Haven't seen a single fan in favour of either.

[The Odds Merchant @odds_merchant]

@SorarePacks That's a weird thing to boast about. Thanks for sharing what kind of person you are 👍
@dansorare @ni2las you see what you're promoting here?

[The Odds Merchant @odds_merchant]

@WarnieDT @Slabotage What's the percentage of people who respond to the end of season survey though? I'd expect that most who don't respond would probably prefer a fixed lock out because they're naturally less engaged anyway

[The Odds Merchant @odds_merchant]

@Sorare It's called a "100 rating" now?

[The Odds Merchant @odds_merchant]

@scottjwillis What's the methodology for the player ratings?

[The Odds Merchant @odds_merchant]

@scottjwillis

[The Odds Merchant @odds_merchant]

@scottjwillis I've been thinking about a concept called 'NextG' - the likelihood a team added 1 more goal to their final score given the chances they had by taking the product of 1-xG for all their shots. I come up with this for the % of at least 1 more goal:

ARS: 93.3%
PSG: 71.0%

[The Odds Merchant @odds_merchant]

@12Xpert 1000% this. Risk management is inherent to almost every decision humans make. Understanding it better can only nurture better decision makers.

[The Odds Merchant @odds_merchant]

@scottjwillis @craptor @fbref @scottjwillis Can you DM me about this please?

[The Odds Merchant @odds_merchant]

And if you want to read up on Aus privacy law, go check out the website of the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner (OAIC). It's a real page turner.

https://t.co/t4l49MFxkr

[The Odds Merchant @odds_merchant]

And finally, even if the punishments are fair for what society expects of footballers, I don't think the AFL should have the right to impose the penalties they have given how the complaint was allegedly made.

Anyway, roast my slightly educated opinion in the comments