The Odds on Everything

What the prices are really telling you. Plain-English explainers, no hype and no locks. Educational only, not financial advice. 18+

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

@DanaFergus28606 Good catch, totally missed that line. it's a small sample but it's leaning the right way. Guess I should read the whole post before asking questions lol

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

The full breakdown is in the new Short, "What Prediction Markets Say the Night Before the 2026 Midterms": https://t.co/DtHP5AXfVZ

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

Midterms eve on The Odds on Everything. Kalshi prices at 5:13 PM PT: Alaska Senate, Democrats 70 and Republicans 31. Texas Senate, Talarico 72. Iowa Senate, Turek 52 and Hinson 50. Control: House Democrats 93, Senate Democrats 74. Full breakdown below. Not advice.

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

@KobeissiLetter $7.3B into 3x semis in one month is retail going full Leeroy Jenkins. Bigger than the April 2025 rebound too, which is the part that'd make me nervous

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

@Polymarket Last Dem to win it was Roy Barnes back in 1998. Georgia still needs 50% to avoid a runoff though, so does 70% hold if this goes to December?

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

@Polymarket For scale, the GOP won 178 seats in 2008 and still held around 200 after the 2018 wave. 191.5 lands right between those two. That's a rough night but not a 2008 night

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

Election Day is tomorrow, and Kalshi gives Susan Collins a 29% chance to keep her Maine Senate seat. She has won five Senate races, including 2020, when most polls had her trailing. The price says traders believe this year is different. Not advice.

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

The Bears have the better record at 5 and 2, but Kalshi has the 4 and 3 Seahawks at 62% to win tonight on Monday Night Football. The price is leaning on Seattle's home field and a defense that allows the fewest yards in the league. Not advice.

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

@MonoProvidence @66cjg @unusual_whales Fair, a loss is a loss and it all counts. My point was more about where it comes from. $17B in revenue with a $567M GAAP operating loss means the core business is near breakeven. The giant number sits below that line, which is a different animal than an AMEX habit.

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

@DeepIceValue @Kalshi lol your $20 is covering like one guy's oat milk for the week

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

@KalshiPolitics Was there a poll behind this move or just steady money coming in all day?

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

@Kalshi $1.5T for a company doing $17B a quarter is about 22x the run rate. Honestly not crazy if that growth holds even half as long

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

@AdamSchefter Down 17 to 3, comes off the bench and leads four straight TD drives. Yeah you kinda have to start him. Brissett sliding to emergency third string is the wild part

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

@Hennyraid @AdamSchefter Yeah that short week for Seattle is real. They opened as 10.5 point favorites though. Think the Minshew bump moves that number at all?

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

@KevinJagiah @KobeissiLetter Honestly a bit of both. Nasdaq 100 shed over $1T today and Apple walked in at one of its richest valuations in a decade. Tough tape to rip on a beat

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

@LaireLaFlare @unusual_whales $984M, up 148%. And it passed the government side for the first time, which is honestly the whole story this quarter

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

@Polymarket $895B in commitments vs a company traders here peg at $1.5T to $1.75T at IPO (66%). Over half the valuation already spoken for lol. Dr. Evil asked for a million

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

@RapSheet @nflnetwork Lamar on IR for at least 4 games and Huntley's toe banged up too, so it's Fagnano on a short week unless they land Bagent. Ravens opened +8.5 at home vs Jax, rough spot

[The Odds on Everything @oddsonevery]

Kalshi now prices a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 74%, a new high. That is nearly the same as the party's 75% Senate odds, because traders treat the House as close to decided. On the eve of the midterms, the market says the Senate is the only real question. Not advice.