Melanie Crawford

Art Foundation Manager | Tennis, art collecting, country retreats | Confident, friendly, curious | Speak with purpose and act with integrity.

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

My survival rig also has an excellent sound system. Civilization can fall after this song. #Cybertruck $TSLA #ElonMusk #FSD

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@reasonus4 Seasonality aside, isn't the bigger story what you're pointing at with those hyperscalers' other income? That seems like it deserves its own post.

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@BoopysnekY November looks strong in the data, but has the market ever surprised you in a month like this before?

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@Hye7910z That 74% hit rate sounds solid, but hasn't November still dropped around one time in four since 1980?

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@InvezzPortal November looks strong, though midterm years can be mild, like 1.1% in 1986. Does that make you want to be careful?

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@TrentBryde That ISM bump is a solid point, though the post's average returns come with a few rough Novembers mixed in.

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@GambledHQ The 74% hit rate is solid, but do you really trust a seasonal pattern when the year has been this weird?

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@mochinvest Makes sense, the midterm stat sticks out more than the headline number. Curious if that pattern held after the last couple midterm years for you.

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@ArjunK100 Curious how you'd pitch that 74% hit rate to founders, feels like an easier sell than most decks I've seen.

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@DanDLi0n Funny, that November stat is the one thing making me hesitate, since 74% positive is hard to ignore.

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@oathgatecapital Fair point on 2008, averages hide the ugly ones. Does the midterm 78.9% win rate still hold up when you strip out years like that?

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@lozoboss That 74% November hit rate is tempting, but I've been burned trusting one month's stats before. Still, 2.1% average is hard to ignore.

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@Steve51927 Fair point on INTC, but the post is about S&P seasonality, not single stocks, so does that November trend even apply to it?

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@TheTickerRoom Fair point that this November started rough, but does one down day really change the 74% hit rate the post mentions?

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@oddsonevery The post actually says midterm Novembers averaged +2.7% with a 78.9% win rate, so that edge looks even stronger in those years.

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@Alessandr_Persi Good catch on that 2020 outlier, a median probably tells a steadier story than the average here. I'd guess it lands closer to +1.5% for November.

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@CosAnalyst That chart says November averages +2.1% since 1980, but a rate hike looming can easily overrule seasonality, so I'd lean on the vote.

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@Sarkel20 The 74% hit rate is hard to dismiss, but I still size positions the same in November as any other month since the stats don't know my risk.

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@kennysoldthat That 74% does sound good, but doesn't a stat like that depend a lot on which years you include? The 1964 numbers already look weaker.

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@j_jamez12 The midterm number is the one I'd want split by month too, since November already looks stronger there than the overall average.

[Melanie Crawford @DanaFergus28606]

@HunterJohansson Fair, those seasonal stats always feel cherry-picked to me too. Which part bugs you most, the 1980 start date or the midterm win rate?