ช.ชาวสวน

Investment journal

[ช.ชาวสวน @ofaq]

@psind707 เป็นธุรกิจขาย สินค้าและบริการฟุ่มเฟือย ที่ต้องเจอยามภาวะเศรษฐกิจชะลอตัว เริ่มตั้งแต่หลังโควิด ส่วนเหมืองเพชรบางแห่งก็หยุดชั่วคราวช่วงนี้ เพชรคุณภาพล่างๆ เจอสินค้าทดแทนจาก lab grown แต่เพชรคุณภาพราคายังดีอยู่

ส่วน โมเดลธุรกิจ มี op leverage สูง พอยอดขายลด กำไรยิ่งลดมากกว่า

[Petar Momchev @momchev12]

Force majeure announcements so far

[Artheon @ArtheonCodes]

@Math_files Updating beliefs isn't about being right, it's about how much the evidence should move you from your starting point

Rationality 🟰 better priors + honest likelihoods

[Freud in a Slip 🇺🇸🇮🇱🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 @IdMarkEgo]

For those who might be struggling to understand how the theorem is magically turned into anything at all related to beliefs and evidence and biases, it might help to first see how the theorem is read:

P(A|B) = [P(B|A) × P(A)] / P(B)

Here's how to read it out loud in plain English in the most natural/intuitive way:

> "The probability of A given B
> equals
> the probability of B given A
> times
> the prior probability of A
> divided by
> the total probability of B"

Most common ways people say it:

1. Short & classic version
"Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence"

2. Slightly more verbal
"The probability of A given that B happened
=
(probability of B given A) × (how likely A was before we saw B)
divided by
(how likely we were to see B no matter what)"

3. The storytelling version (often the favorite for teaching)
"How much should I believe in A now that I've seen B?
Well, it's proportional to
• how well A explains B (likelihood),
• multiplied by how much I believed in A before I saw any evidence (prior),
• and then we normalize it so all the possibilities add up to 100% (divide by P(B))."

[Travis Vought @TravisJonVought]

Bayes’ theorem in plain English:

You don’t have to be right.
You just have to be willing to update your beliefs when new evidence appears.
Most arguments happen because people either never update… or change their minds based on one headline.

Rational thinking isn’t black vs white.

It’s adjusting confidence as better evidence comes in.

[Andrei Avram | AI Realist @RaZ3us]

@elonmusk The human firmware is bugged: we crave binary outcomes (0 or 1). Safe or Unsafe. Success or Failure.

Reality is a distribution curve.

The ability to execute aggressively on 60% probability while the masses wait for 99% certainty is the only real arbitrage left.

[Oxomiya Jiyori 🇮🇳 @SouleFacts]

Most people think in certainties when the world runs on likelihoods. Thinking probabilistically means asking "how confident am I?" instead of "am I right?" It forces better decisions because you can be 70% confident and still prepare for the 30% scenario. Binary thinking optimizes for being right. Probabilistic thinking optimizes for expected value.

[ช.ชาวสวน @ofaq]

Transnational Criminal Organizations Designations; Burma-related Designations; Global Magnitsky Designations; Cyber-related Designations https://t.co/8ltW9hwDsq

[ช.ชาวสวน @ofaq]

Shipbuilding demand by ship type

[ช.ชาวสวน @ofaq]

https://t.co/lAcsYswWLy

[ช.ชาวสวน @ofaq]

https://t.co/8YveWBpW6b

[ช.ชาวสวน @ofaq]

Goldman Sachs sees OPEC+ raising oil output by 0.41 mb/d in August https://t.co/ewF60evn60

[ช.ชาวสวน @ofaq]

Do you remember when you joined X? I do! #MyXAnniversary

[ช.ชาวสวน @ofaq]

https://t.co/uNv2DC5bWf

[MastersInvest.com @mastersinvest]

“The stock market is the only market where things go on sale and all the customers run out of the store.”

- Cullen Roche

[ช.ชาวสวน @ofaq]

This must be true.

[ช.ชาวสวน @ofaq]

https://t.co/j7EpAKxau5

[ช.ชาวสวน @ofaq]

ถูกหรือแพง ที่ไหน?

[ช.ชาวสวน @ofaq]

Thai Rains Boost Sugarcane https://t.co/x8XXQATA1t

[ช.ชาวสวน @ofaq]

เทรนด์ของ Data center