@_dogegod_ CAW🌙 will increase in price by 10,000% in just one day, 100,000% in a week, and 1,000,000% in a month in 2026.
It's CAWming.
A HUNTERS ÐREAM 💫
The Elon Musk's ultimate currency
XMoney
One thing I find striking in the discourse between AI 2040 and its detractors is that the two seem to be locked in to totally incompatible worldviews of how fast and how much of a big deal AI progress is:
* In AI 2040, every scenario sees superintelligence of some kind emerging by 2040, unless a herculean effort is made to completely stop it
* Detractors say things like "AI 2040 is naive about human coordination ability and a threat to freedom", but don't seem to see any naivety in assuming that the ASI transition will just go well by default, don't seem to see ASI itself as a massive power concentrator risk, and don't seem to feel fear of humanity's "hard power" dropping to zero if ASIs can do literally every task better than we can. This stance makes total sense in a "AI is normal technology" world, zero sense in a world where superintelligence is possible by 2030 and almost guaranteed by 2040
I think my beliefs are:
- If I was confident that (present-day-style) AI is normal technology, I would be in the detractor camp
- If I was confident that superintelligence is coming in 2030 by default, I would be closer to the AI 2040 camp - it's naive, but every other option is naive squared?
But my problem is that I feel great uncertainty and have no idea which of the two worlds (or some other third thing) we're living in?
Hence why I continue to be open-minded about slowdowns/pauses, but also I feel very uncomfortable with the "open source bad, the good outcome is the one where our guys have controlling global dominance" push coming from some major AI companies and intellectuals - in a "normal" world that's the sort of thing that triggers every political alarm bell at the same time.
A big reason why I have been advocating and trying my best to support the d/acc platform (rapid up-skilling in formal verification, cryptography, secure and open hardware, pandemic resistance and other defensive biotech, food and basic resource security, public epistemics, non-power-concentrating versions of physical security) is that these things are clearly worth doing in both worlds.
The 2040 plan is already much more open source friendly (even mandating it! yay). It also includes "mutually assured compute destruction" ideas which (if they work) effectively give one of 2-5 actors the ability to trigger a global compute winter - as opposed to giving 1-5 actors the ability to selectively disenfranchise people they consider baddies while exempting themselves. This is also a big improvement. So I can see the earnest attempts to improve along the dimensions detractors criticize on ("does this concentrate power in big AI labs and superpower governments?"), and I appreciate this. I think many people don't appreciate enough the differences between different "kinds" of pause buttons, and how some concentrate power far more than others. Probably we can think harder and improve even more here.
But on the "slowdown/pause or not" topic, there isn't a magic "escape the tradeoff" button.
The Hansonian in me says: the winning deal is a deal which, from the perspective of both sides' present-day beliefs and knowledge, both sides would accept, though for different reasons. If the crux is AI progress speed, then identify a set of pre-agreed triggers for "okay, serious shit is happening" [super-pandemics? >25% unemployment? something involving slaughterbots?], and pre-agree that we become much more open-minded to the slowdown or pause thing if enough triggers come to pass within some timeframe. 2040 detractors (who clearly implicitly think that we'll see amazing speedup of progress from AI but think that what I call the "serious shit" category is overhyped) will accept expecting that the triggers don't come to pass, and AI worriers will accept expecting that they will. Pre-agreeing on the specific triggers means that once the triggers either hit or don't hit, there is stronger legitimacy around the idea that one side's worldview turned out more correct and we should be more inclined toward their program.
If I were @elonmusk (or zuck, or...) I would re-tool twitter much more heavily into being a platform for helping to identify and make these kinds of grand win-win deals, so that we can bypass big-country governments and big-company CEOs and big nonprofit intellectuals and give more people a voice in the discussion. It's possibly one of the best things that social media _could_ do for humanity if it wanted to.
But again, maybe this is also naive. Actually, probably it's naive.
But currently, I see zero plans for how to deal with an ASI transition that are not naive. Perhaps humanity is stuck with a choice between naive and naive squared (or maybe even naive squared and naive cubed), so I feel inclined to cut some slack to people who are trying.
Most people are missing the ETH angle behind Robinhood Chain.
At first glance, it may seem like Robinhood launching its own chain has little to do with $ETH. The activity happens on Layer 2, fees are low, and users may never think about Ethereum mainnet.
But the deeper point is security.
Ethereum L2s do not exist in isolation. They rely on Ethereum mainnet for settlement, data availability, and security. If Ethereum’s security were compromised, assets and applications on its L2 ecosystem could also be affected.
According to the Ethereum Foundation’s report, around $76B worth of ETH is staked to secure Ethereum. The report also estimates that it would take about $50.7B worth of ETH to finalize a fraudulent transaction.
That is why institutional adoption on Ethereum matters for ETH.
Robinhood may be only one of the first major traditional finance platforms to build on Ethereum’s L2 ecosystem. If more banks, brokers, fintechs, and asset managers follow, the amount of value relying on Ethereum security could grow from hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars.
At that point, ETH is no longer just a gas token.
It becomes the economic collateral securing a global settlement layer.
That is the bullish case: as more real-world financial assets move onto Ethereum and its L2s, the market may be forced to reprice ETH based on the value it secures.
$ETH down 6% from recent high after rejection from resistance and the daily MA 50.
Next Supports:
- $1,670
- Strong support at $1,500
ETH needs to jump back above the MA 50 and $1,850 for further bullish momentum toward $2,400.
The internet is better when everyday services respect the people using them.
@ProtonMail inspires the broader privacy movement with encrypted web tools for everyone to use.
Institutional deployments require absolute liveness, security and economic finality.
Ethereum provides these guarantees, maintaining zero network outages since launch and a $50.7 billion dollar attack barrier.
The new report from @ethereumfndn GPS equips institutional stakeholders to evaluate Ethereum's public mainnet infrastructure, and where the network stands in the blockchain landscape.
1/ Announcing Ethereum Institutional
An independent non-profit dedicated to accelerating the institutional adoption of Ethereum, its L2s, applications and overall ecosystem.
Ethereum’s burn thesis is dead. The fee revenue story is weak. L2s are capturing most of the value, and $ETH no longer looks like the “ultrasound money” trade people sold in the last cycle.
But that may be the wrong way to value it.
ETH is becoming reserve collateral for the most neutral settlement network in crypto. Exchange supply is at multi-year lows, staking is at all-time highs, and institutions are building on Ethereum’s ecosystem through L2s, tokenized assets, stablecoins, and private settlement rails.
The market is focused on what Ethereum earns today.
The bigger question is what Ethereum becomes tomorrow: a programmable, neutral, private financial layer for institutions, AI agents, and global capital.
Privacy and zk upgrades could be the real unlock here. If Ethereum can make private balances, private transfers, and scalable settlement native to the network, it becomes much more useful for serious financial institutions.
Price is weak. Sentiment is terrible. But on-chain behavior says holders are locking in, not leaving.
That is usually when the opportunity gets interesting.