Eric

鹿島アントラーズSÓCIO /横浜ベイスターズ/宍戸ヒルズCC/美術館巡り/個人投資家/米国株/メルセデス/ミュンヘンへの道/🇹🇳🇧🇭🇸🇬

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

S&P 500は平均19日毎に最高値を更新。

#米国株

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

From its inception in 1957 through today, the S&P 500 has hit 1,328 all-time highs, hitting a new high once every 19 days on average.

[Insider Paper @TheInsiderPaper]

BREAKING: Players and spectators ran for their lives after powerful earthquake hits Venezuela during the baseball game

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

南アフリカ🇿🇦の完勝。韓国🇰🇷を組織力で上回った。ソンフンミン控えスタートは、南アフリカ🇿🇦を過小評価。サッカーの引き分け狙いの難しさがよくわかるゲームだった。

#FIFAWorldCup

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

南アフリカ🇿🇦はチームがクラブチーム主体のため、組織力で韓国🇰🇷を上回る。同点には、韓国🇰🇷は個で上回るしかない。

#FIFAWorldCup

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

韓国🇰🇷はビルドアップは拙いし、前線のクウォリティは高くはないし、南アフリカ🇿🇦は十分チャンスがある。

#FIFAWorldCup

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

金価格も仮想通貨も、長期的にリターンは期待インフレ率に連動する。インフレ率を超えた投資リターンは、やがて長期インフレ率(年率+2~3%)に収斂する。

#米国株

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

モーサテは金を「安全資産」と呼ぶことを直ちに止めるべき。もはや風説の流布。

#モーサテ

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Spot gold prices officially fall below $4,000/oz for the first time since November 2025.

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

日銀の利上げは実質的な増税。

#財務省解体　#日銀利上げ

[Milton Friedman Quotes @MiltonFriedmanW]

Milton Friedman:

“What we call a deficit is simply a form of taxation; it’s hidden taxation.”

“If it is financed by printing money, it’s taxation in the form of inflation. If it is not financed by printing money, it’s an invisible tax on all property.”

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

#日銀利上げ　#財務省解体　#高市政権

[田中秀臣 @hidetomitanaka]

あらら、ついに高市政権、日銀の利上げ方針にブチ切れてるじゃん（笑）。なんでこの内閣府の発言をマスコミは無視してるのかな。当たり前だけど、利上げと積極財政を同時にやるって物凄くデタラメなことなんですよ。しかもリークつき。日銀官僚のやりたい放題。植田総裁を更迭したいところである。

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

＃サッカー日本代表　#鹿島アントラーズ　#antlers

[Fooootest（サッカーブログ） @Fooootest]

上田綺世がW杯GS第2節のベストイレブン入り🇯🇵🔥

評価点はエロイ・ルームに次ぐ全体2位✨

📸@Sofascore

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

「世界は今、構造的にコンピュートが不足しており、その世界ではメモリは単なるコンポーネントではなく、『パッケージ化された知能』の一種です。」

#米国株　#日経平均　#FANG #MU

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Comment on $MU

Micron’s numbers are not just strong; they are almost implausibly good for a company that, until recently, was treated as a textbook commodity cyclicals story. Q3 revenue of $41.46B versus $35.59B expected and adjusted EPS of $25.11 against $20.60 would, on their own, justify a relief rally; pairing that with Q4 guidance for $50.0B in revenue versus a $42.92B consensus, adjusted EPS of $31.00 versus $25.50, and an 86% gross margin is an explicit challenge to anyone still modelling Micron as a mid‑cycle memory producer rather than an AI infrastructure utility.

The world is now structurally short compute, and in that world memory is not just a component but a form of “packaged intelligence”. Yet Micron still trades as if nothing has changed: the bears insist the cycle is already over, and the stock continues to command a massive discount to the broader market, much as it did in the pre‑AI era.

Either this upturn is fundamentally different , disciplined capacity, structurally higher HBM content, longer AI server replacement cycles, in which case that discount is a mispricing. Or it is not, and these are just the fattest margins of a familiar boom‑bust pattern that will again end with oversupply and crushed returns. The bears do not need to like this print. But if they still insist on fading it, they need a much better story.

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

$MUはAMで13%を超えて上昇。

#米国株　#MU #FANG

[Barchart @Barchart]

Micron $MU blast off after destroying earnings expectations 📈📈

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

日本円は実効為替レートでトルコリラを下回る下落。もはや通貨危機。

#米国株　#FANG #日経平均

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

When is a crisis a crisis? The Japanese Yen is consolidating its fall below the Turkish Lira, making it the world's weakest currency. We're used to calling currency crises for Turkey, but we're reluctant to do the same for Japan. But Japan is in crisis...
https://t.co/c0kFK8YqeV

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

#米国株　#FANG #MU

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

MICRON SEES AI-DRIVEN MEMORY SHORTAGE EXTENDING BEYOND 2027

• MICRON EXPECTS TIGHT MEMORY MARKET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST BEYOND CALENDAR 2027 DUE TO SURGING AI-DRIVEN DEMAND ACROSS ALL SEGMENTS

• COMPANY SAYS IT CURRENTLY HAS NO CLEAR VISIBILITY ON WHEN MEMORY SUPPLY WILL CATCH UP WITH GROWING DEMAND

• MICRON PROJECTS OPERATING EXPENSES TO INCREASE BY APPROXIMATELY $1 BILLION IN FISCAL 2027

• FISCAL Q4 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND $10 BILLION

• FULL-YEAR FISCAL 2026 CAPITAL SPENDING FORECAST AT APPROXIMATELY $27 BILLION

• QUARTERLY CAPEX IN FISCAL 2027 EXPECTED TO EXCEED FISCAL Q4 2026 LEVELS

• COMPANY CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY INVEST IN CAPACITY TO MEET AI-RELATED MEMORY DEMAND

• MICRON NOTES THAT POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TRADE POLICIES OR GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN ITS GUIDANCE

• UNDER STRATEGIC CUSTOMER AGREEMENTS, MICRON EXPECTS TO RECEIVE APPROXIMATELY $22 BILLION IN CASH DEPOSITS AND RELATED FINANCIAL COMMITMENTS

• COMPANY PLANS TO INCREASE CAPITAL RETURNS TO SHAREHOLDERS

• MICRON STATES IT EXPECTS TO RETURN 100% OF EXCESS CASH TO SHAREHOLDERS OVER TIME

• COMMENTS REINFORCE THE VIEW THAT AI INFRASTRUCTURE DEMAND CONTINUES TO OUTSTRIP MEMORY SUPPLY, SUPPORTING A FAVORABLE PRICING ENVIRONMENT FOR DRAM AND HBM PRODUCERS

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

#米国株　#FANG #MU

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

$MU Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

🔹 Revenue: $41.46B (Est. $35.5B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EPS: $25.11 (Est. $20.4) 🟢
🔹 Adj. Gross Margin: 84.9% (Est. 81.8%) 🟢

Q4 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $50.0B ± $1.0B (Est. $43.4B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EPS: $31.00 ± $1.00 (Est. $24.3) 🟢
🔹 Gross Margin: Approximately 86% (Est. 83%) 🟢
🔹 OpEx: Approximately $1.65B

Segment Performance:
🔹 Automotive & Embedded Revenue: $4.63B (Est. $3.51B) 🟢
🔹 Cloud Memory: Revenue $13.769B; Gross Margin 83%; Operating Margin 78%
🔹 Core Data Center: Revenue $11.524B; Gross Margin 87%; Operating Margin 83%
🔹 Mobile & Client: Revenue $11.521B; Gross Margin 87%; Operating Margin 86%
🔹 Automotive & Embedded: Revenue $4.634B; Gross Margin 79%; Operating Margin 75%

Other Metrics:
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $25.39B
🔹 Adjusted FCF: $18.3B
🔹 HBM4: In high-volume shipments for lead customer platform; qualification samples shipped to multiple end-customers
🔹 HBM4E: Volume production expected in calendar 2027
🔹 G9-based PCIe Gen6 high-performance SSD: In high-volume production
🔹 High-capacity 245TB QLC SSD: Shipments commenced

Financials:
🔹 Adj. Net Income: $28.86B
🔹 Adj. Operating Income: $33.68B
🔹 Adj. OpEx: $1.52B
🔹 Investments in CapEx, net: $7.1B
🔹 Cash, marketable investments, and restricted cash: $30.2B

Capital Return:
🔹 Dividend: $0.15/share payable July 21, 2026 to shareholders of record as of July 6, 2026

Commentary:
🔸 “Micron’s record fiscal Q3 financial results and even stronger outlook for Q4 reflect the strategic value of memory in the AI era.”

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

＃米国株　#FANG #MU

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

BREAKING: Micron beat Q2 earnings

• EPS: $28.86 vs $20.20 est
• Revenue: $41.5B vs $35B est

$MU +4% after-hours

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

「コスト最適化を目的としたグローバル化は、米国を供給中断、地政学的強制、技術流出への露出にさらしました。依存はもはや貿易の無害な特徴ではなく、戦略的な脆弱性です。」

#米国株

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Last night’s speech by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signals the decisive shift in US economic doctrine: from efficiency to sovereignty.

Invoking Alexander Hamilton, Bessent framed industrial capacity not as a legacy asset, but as the foundation of national power in a contested world. The comparison is not casual. If carried through, it would make Bessent the most consequential Treasury secretary since Hamilton himself.

The message is clear. Globalisation optimised for cost has left the US exposed, to supply disruptions, geopolitical coercion and technological leakage. Dependence is no longer a benign feature of trade; it is a strategic vulnerability.

This is not autarky, but reprioritisation. Semiconductors, energy systems, advanced manufacturing and compute infrastructure are being recast as sovereign capabilities. Supply chains are judged less by efficiency than by their ability to withstand shocks and resist pressure from adversaries.
The economics are less comfortable. Resilience implies higher costs, sustained fiscal support and the risk of stickier inflation. But Washington appears willing to pay.

For markets, the shift is structural. Capital will follow policy into strategic sectors, while exposure to adversarial supply chains will command a growing discount. Hamilton’s logic has returned. This time, markets may have less choice but to follow.

[Eric @onlypapermoon]

#米国株

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Bitcoin falls below $60,000, now down nearly -20% this month.