@boardyai building OpenEXA, an AI trading platform that cuts cost of carry and counterparty risk on long-term assets. live on NYSE and NASDAQ with real trades. would love Boardy Pro for this
'Anything but market cap' could grow as concentration rises. Top 10 stocks in SPX now make up 32% of index.. at same time smart-beta (which largely has fundamental/value tilt) is lagging SPX. If reversal, smart-beta should clean up, maybe double its flow share via @psarofagis
Another thing about $IBIT volume that's notable is the amt of pre-market activity.. check this out, it's already seen $80m traded.. only 5 ETFs have seen more activity ahead of mkt open. Unprecedented for 2mo-old ETF. $BITO in 9th place makes me think lot of arb volume going on.
Also interesting $IBIT saw over 100,000 individual trades today. It was doing 30-60k the whole time up until Tuesday. It's like it found a new gear over Pres Day wknd. I thought maybe it was just pent up volume due to long wknd but it did even more today so there goes that theory
Another intense volume day for the Nine with well over $2b traded. $IBIT broke its personal record again w/ $1.3b (for context that's more than most large cap US stocks trade). I don't know if this is a new normal or some kind of short-term algo/arb-related burst a la $HODL.
The amount of energy necessary to successfully hijack the #Bitcoin network is far beyond the reach of any single organization or nation-state. Since the Bitcoin network consensus rules cannot be unilaterally changed, it is most likely that all players will simply adapt to its rules. As the old adage says: "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em." Clip from WiM314 w/ @saylor
US banks, left off key bitcoin ETF roles, are pushing SEC to tweak guidance around holding digital assets. A bank trade gp coalition sent SEC letter asking them exclude ETFs from broad crypto umbrella. They want a piece of the action. I don't blame them, it isn't fair. https://t.co/KjwqmvbX3x
Re the "but the SEC hasn't voted" and how that's some kind of poss rug pull. Few things, the SEC has never voted on bitcoin ETFs (spot denials or the futures approvals), they were denied or approved via "Delegated Authority" (see below from commish Peirce speech) which would make sense here too since this has been a "10th floor" driven initiative since the Grayscale win. Second, if they did vote they'd have to have publicly scheduled a meeting. Next one is on the 11th but that would be too late for 1/11 launch, so prob not relevant. And if there were a vote, hard to imagine any poss Gary would vote no bc a) there's no basis to deny and b) he is literally the one who directed the Staff to put in thousands of man hours to work w 11 issuers on 5-10 rounds of comments, and most recently telling them they want these lined up for 1/11 launch. All that said, we still won't go to 100% odds until SEC makes it official (just like ESPN won't go to 100% winning chance until game is literally over regardless of score). Sorry this tweet is so long btw! and h/t to my lawyer friends.
I've seen a few posts about NAAIM being at 97%. A high number in December doesn't mean much. In December 2017 it hit 120%. SPX topped only 6 weeks later. In December 2019 it hit 99%. SPX topped only 8 weeks later. In December 2020 it hit 106%. SPX topped only 8 weeks later.
As a permabear you are awaiting "1 shining moment"
The avg duration of a bear mkt is 450 days.
The avg duration of a bull mkt is 2,069 days.
Avg bear mkt return = -38%
Avg bull mkt return = +209%
I'll choose bull, and endure any bear market
$SPX $SPY $QQQ $DIA @MikeZaccardi