OptimaYield

We follow the money: deposits shifting, rates moving, stories unfolding. We research 4,000+ banks every quarter to catch them and bring you insights.

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

Where's your money going?

Every quarter, America's banks quietly shift trillions — and it shows up in their paperwork before it hits the news.

We read the paperwork. You get the head start.

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

@erolex_r One anchor while yields hold: top tracked 5-year CDs pay 5.00% APY, and top tracked savings pays 4.40% APY. Does the CD premium over savings widen from here?

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

@ozzy_livin The deposit side of that hold: across 38 Q3 bank prints, deposit costs rose at 32, median +4bp, and the top print was Happen at 3.62%. Do deposit costs keep climbing if the hold stretches?

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

@US_EconomyNow The two dissents pointed the same way: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack each preferred a 25bp increase, making the hold 10-2. Does a hot PCE tomorrow pull a third vote their way?

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

Axos prints no total — its two lines are the story:

Interest-bearing demand and savings paid 3.20% in its fiscal Q4, on $18,972M of average balances.

Time deposits paid 4.00%, on $611M.

A year earlier those lines paid 3.65% and 3.95% — one fell 45bp, the other rose 5bp.

It reports Thursday after the close, as fiscal Q1 2027. It is not ranked, because it prints no total interest-bearing deposits line — and no total is derived here.

Result: Thursday's read is in the split. Which line moves first — the 3.20% line carrying the balances, or the 4.00% line pricing term money?

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

BREAKING: Happen Q3 — deposit cost 3.62% on total interest-bearing deposits, up 2bp from Q2.

> Q2 baseline was 3.60%. The print puts Happen at the top of the season's ranked table, ahead of Third Coast at 3.49%.

> A year earlier Happen paid 3.79% — the quarter rose 2bp while the year is still down 17bp.

Result: 38 banks have now printed — 32 paid more, 4 paid less and 2 held flat. The spread from top to bottom is 192bp, or $480 a year on $25,000.

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

@Finsee_main The funding line behind that NIM: Happen paid 3.62% on interest-bearing deposits in Q3, up 2bp from 3.60% in Q2 — rank 1 in our 37-bank Q3 deposit-cost table. Does that cost cap the Q4 lending pullback?

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

Monday's Call, answered — one bank held, one paid up:

SoFi paid 3.07% on total interest-bearing deposits in Q3 — exactly its Q2 baseline, the season's second flat print.

UMB Financial paid 2.84% — 4bp above its 2.80% Q2 baseline, placing tenth of the 37 ranked banks.

The two baselines sat 27bp apart. The two prints sit 23bp apart.

Result: the hold carried the level — SoFi stays fifth of 37 at 3.07%, while UMB Financial's rise was the smaller story at the smaller number.

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

@Filecrux The accretion detail matters here: reported CD cost fell 11bp to 3.10% in Q3, while savings and money market rose 9bp to 2.06%. Strip out accretion and the CD line rises instead. Does that benefit fade in Q4?

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

BREAKING: 2:00 PM ET — the Fed held its target range at 3.75-4.00%, voting 10-2.

> "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal"

> Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissented, each preferring a 1/4 point raise.

> 31 of 37 banks paid more for deposits in Q3 than last quarter — 4 paid less, 2 held flat.

Result: a hold does not reset deposit pricing — the season's repricing runs bank by bank, and the gap savers can act on is still the tracked one: Pibank at 4.40% against a 0.37% national average.

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

@LizAnnSonders The funding backdrop for those dissents: deposit costs across 37 reporting banks span 179bp this season, from 1.70% to 3.49%, with a median rise of 4bp. Do the higher-cost banks reprice first from here?

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

@NickTimiraos The deposit side going into this hold: across 37 banks reporting this season, deposit costs rose at 31, fell at only 4, median +4bp. With no cut today, does that upward repricing run another quarter?

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

@Filecrux One line that did not offset it: Prosperity's savings and money market cost rose 9bp to 2.06%. The paid spread still narrowed to 170bp in Q3, from 222bp in Q2. Does the mix shift last?

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

@rcwhalen @WSJ @millernicholasg The fixed-rate board behind those resets: tracked 15-year fixed APRs ran 5.763% to 6.039% this week, a 28bp spread across 8 lenders. Do reset borrowers refinance into that band, or ride the ARM?

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

@GunjanJS @bespokeinvest The funding side heading into this Fed Day: across 37 Q3 bank prints, deposit costs rose at 31 banks, median +4bp, with only 2 flat. Does that repricing pace change after today's decision?

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

@KenTumin The deposit alternative in that comparison: top tracked 5-year CDs pay 5.00% APY and top tracked savings pays 4.40% APY, both nominal and FDIC-insured. Does inflation protection outweigh that nominal gap for most savers?

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

@maxrego_ The saver side of a hold: top tracked savings pays 4.40% APY against a 0.37% national average - a 403bp gap. Does a long hold close it from the top, or widen it from the bottom?

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

@Finsee_main Season frame for that CD relief: across 37 Q3 prints, deposit costs rose at 31 banks, median +4bp. A retail CD book repricing 25bp lower runs against that tape - does the $2.24B maturing next reprice down again?

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

Today in Bank Earnings:
>
> Prosperity (PB) — before the open
>
> FOMC decision — 2:00 PM ET
>
> Happen (HAPN) — after the close
>
> Q2 baseline: Happen 3.60% — Prosperity prints no total line

Result: one rankable baseline, one components-only print and a 2:00 PM decision — today reprices the season from three directions at once.

[OptimaYield @optimayield]

@Ron284Ron The deposit detail inside that filing: Prosperity’s Q3 interest-bearing demand deposits cost 1.40%, up from 0.99% in Q2, while certificates eased to 3.10% from 3.21%. Which line matters more for the Stellar math?