Kai

0DTE specialist | Helping traders understand options through real trades, not theory | Daily market reads | NFA

[Kai @optionskai]

https://t.co/UTbEOwOXKF

[Kai @optionskai]

@TouchlineX And the right foot

[Kai @optionskai]

Being able to live through both the Maradona era and Messi era feels like a dream, as a kid, as an adult, and now as a dad.

[Kai @optionskai]

Market $ES futures reacted positively and jumped $10 points (0.13%) immediately after the release.

[Kai @optionskai]

PPI just cracked.
First monthly decline this year. Energy did it again.
June PPI fell 0.3% MoM, the largest drop since 2022, ending four straight months of gains. YoY still sits at 5.5%, but the trend just reversed hard. Core (ex food, energy, trade) rose only 0.1% MoM, down sharply from May's 0.8%.

[Kai @optionskai]

Gasoline down 12%. Energy down 6.4%. That's basically the entire story. Services stayed calm at +0.2%.

CPI cooled yesterday. PPI cooled today. Same signal, both sides of the supply chain. The Fed holds July 29. This isn't noise.

[Kai @optionskai]

PPI just cracked.
First monthly decline this year. Energy did it again.
June PPI fell 0.3% MoM, the largest drop since 2022, ending four straight months of gains. YoY still sits at 5.5%, but the trend just reversed hard. Core (ex food, energy, trade) rose only 0.1% MoM, down sharply from May's 0.8%.

[Kai @optionskai]

Retail traders are leaning heavily into upside exposure in mega-cap tech. Call buying in these names has climbed close to a year-to-date high, accounting for 56% of all retail opening trades on Cboe’s exchanges on Friday.

At the same time, even in sectors experiencing outsized volatility, demand for downside hedges has not increased meaningfully.(Source: CBOE)

[Kai @optionskai]

The DSPX and VIX divergence looks even worse now

[Kai @optionskai]

https://t.co/UTbEOwOXKF

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

Yesterday, Jim Cramer said $IBM is "inexpensive" and that Arvind Krishna is "doing a fantastic job."

Today, IBM crashed -25%.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇨🇳 Chinese AI firm DeepSeek prepares to file for an IPO as soon as this year.

[Kai @optionskai]

This takes a July hike off the table mostly. The Fed holds at the July 28 to 29 meeting.
Prediction markets had this coming. Polymarket was pricing roughly 80% odds the Fed holds in July, only 20% on a hike, even before today's print. This CPI miss confirms that pricing. The hike scenario is now the tail risk, not the base case.

[Kai @optionskai]

Breaking:
June CPI came in much cooler than expected. Headline fell 0.4% MoM (SA), the largest monthly drop since April 2020, easing to 3.5% YoY from 4.2% in May and well below the 3.9% forecast. Core was flat at 0.0% MoM, easing to 2.6% YoY from 2.9%, also beating expectations.

[Kai @optionskai]

What moved it: energy fell 5.7% MoM (gasoline down 9.7%) as the Iran shock unwinds, and shelter posted its best reading in over 5 years at +0.1% MoM. Not fully broad based though, services ex energy held at 3.2% YoY.

[Kai @optionskai]

Breaking:
June CPI came in much cooler than expected. Headline fell 0.4% MoM (SA), the largest monthly drop since April 2020, easing to 3.5% YoY from 4.2% in May and well below the 3.9% forecast. Core was flat at 0.0% MoM, easing to 2.6% YoY from 2.9%, also beating expectations.

[Kai @optionskai]

Breaking:
June CPI came in much cooler than expected. Headline fell 0.4% MoM (SA), the largest monthly drop since April 2020, easing to 3.5% YoY from 4.2% in May and well below the 3.9% forecast. Core was flat at 0.0% MoM, easing to 2.6% YoY from 2.9%, also beating expectations.

[Kai @optionskai]

SpaceX ($SPCX) has erased ~$1.1T in market cap since its June 16 peak, from $2.97T down to $1.83T in under 4 weeks, a 38% drawdown. Stock's gone from an intraday high of $225 to $139, dipping below its $135 IPO price along the way.
It losses in the AI/xAI unit ballooning against ramping capex, subsidized by a profitable Starlink business. A reminder that IPO euphoria and options IV pricing don't always agree with fundamentals for long. $SPCX

[Kai @optionskai]

One of the most shared photos yesterday. Full credit goes to the original source here.

[Kai @optionskai]

Well, red means positive in Asia right?

[0xNobler @CryptoNobler]

🚨 BREAKING: SOMETHING JUST BROKE IN CHINA

🇨🇳 OVER ¥2,500,000,000,000 HAS BEEN WIPED OUT OF THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET IN 15 MINUTES!

CHINA IS NOW AGGRESSIVELY DUMPING ALL U.S. TREASURIES IN A DESPERATE ATTEMPT TO STOP THE MARKET COLLAPSE.

THIS IS VERY BAD NEWS FOR MARKETS...

[Kai @optionskai]

https://t.co/g3WpJV4R3X

[Kai @optionskai]

https://t.co/AcDO6uyp6X

[Kai @optionskai]

https://t.co/7lwq6X3K8A

[Kai @optionskai]

SPX 0DTE期权交易最近两年极其活跃，所以这里是前两周 SPX 0DTE 简单分析（以后会增加不同方面的分析）。策略基本设置：开盘卖出20𝜟，$30宽度 Iron Condor。在25%最大化赢利点退出，200%止损点。