ConsumerTechBets

High Growth US Consumer Tech. Previously at 3 midcap public tech cos. Voting and weighing stocks. raw thoughts. dms open.

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

@taobanker I dont think Uber has better pricing? UE worse all around in bay area atleast

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

Not apparent to most but prediction markets have budding social graphs.

Social graphs (follows/profiles)
Newsfeed
Real time chat during events

A rare new form of social. nascent ofc.

[rat king 🐀 @MikeIsaac]

News: Meta is currently building a prediction markets app to rival Polymarket and Kalshi, according to sources

the app, currently called "Arena," will be a standalone offering and was ordered up by Mark Zuckerberg

w/ @yaffebellany

https://t.co/IobogS4xkV

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

@mattkalish Are these odds on dk predictions better?

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

@Taran Taran why do you believe you are getting any anthro ever in this case

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

Why $hood is spiking so much today?

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

big expansion in money supply lately?

maybe fake given equity values and paper equity values but

but also maybe not? perhaps its just bay area

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

@capitalatrisk23 Sad

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

@yungmetronome Most common ive seen is a big house with a big mortgage

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

How is all the liquidity from spacex, oai, anthro going to distort the market? And which markets?

7T+ worth of liquidity hitting?

About 4-5x bticoin market caps

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

WTF operating profits already?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Anthropic's revenue is set to more than double to $10.9 billion in Q2 2026, an "explosive rate of growth" that will make the company profitable for the first time ever, per WSJ.

The company is set to turn an operating profit of $559 million in Q2 2026.

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

Tokens effectively free for consumers now.

$0 for majority of population.
Mom just uses chatgpt and claude free versions.

Paid is the price of a Netflix subscription covers 99% of users.

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

@atelicinvest I think yes for consumers; maybe no for enterprise.

Consumers tokens are free! Chatgpt free mode, google ai mode.

On prosumer side i have subscriptions and never get limited anymore despite lots of usage.

Deepseek is really cheap too on API

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

Why $dash is a long for the next decade or two

[Allie ✞ @allie__voss]

The younger and poorer the generation, the more they eat out and DoorDash

This is part of the problem

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

@devahaz Ebiko? One of my faves

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

@Jason Want to put $10k on it @Jason

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

@volcrushed people will say "lucky" and they are

but wild how often people get lucky

seems far more common than people realize

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

said in jest and but probably true?

We'll always laugh at how some dumb idiot lost his entire worth buying JPEGs

then somehow 3 years later he's rich coz he also bought spaceX spv.

Its incredible how often this happens.

The boomer version is common. "Yeah i lost my house in bankruptcy during the GFC. but now i have multi millions in RE".

only legal risk (jail), physical risk (dead) seems to cook young people. maybe spending risk too. but financial risk? idk

hindsight blah blah. All empirical anecdotes (not worth much)

[Bucket Shop Capital @bucketshopcap]

@optionsly Of course, b/c the only risk is not taking enough risk.

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

@DanielMrkMiller my clarification is they lost ~100% of networth which is ~7 figures.

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

strange but I dont know anyone who has taken *too much financial risk*

friend lost ~7 fig NW shorting GME
friend lost ~7 fig NW shorting 2023/2024 rally
friend lost NW buying puts at covid bot
dad bought a overleveraged a home in ~2007

lots of people went to failed startups
I failed a bunch of start-ups

but we all doing pretty well now tbh.

just focusing on people who had "big losses"

i've maybe taken more risk than ~99% of people and on reflection im probably too conservative.

it's tough to calibrate myself correctly.

[not a stock market comment]

[ConsumerTechBets @optionsly]

@DanielMrkMiller Examples were entire nw fwiw