O ETH nunca valeu tão pouco em relação ao Bitcoin desde 2019.
E o mercado parece ter esquecido o que mudou desde lá.
Em 2019 o DeFi engatinhava e L2 não existia de verdade. Hoje são bilhões em volume todo dia.
Antes do The Merge, o Ethereum emitia 13.000 ETH por dia pra mineradores. 4% de inflação ao ano saindo do bolso de todo holder.
Depois do Merge: emissão caiu 90%. O EIP-1559 queima taxas a cada bloco. 32% de todo o ETH está travado em staking.
O ativo mudou completamente. O preço relativo voltou pra estaca zero.
Ou o mercado está completamente errado, ou é a maior oportunidade que já vi em $ETH. 👀
#Bitcoin
If we do not sweep the 60k lows this has to be my primary count unfortunately for now until proven wrong.
This is because the structure off the lows looks much more corrective than impulsive.
It could start to look better but for now I remain pretty cautious.
I’ve maintained this idea for years that Bitcoin will go through a prolonged re-accumulation phase, holding higher prices above 50k–60k for years without breaking out to major targets like 300k–500k or higher. Instead, we’ll see alternating one-year bull and bear markets until institutions, pension funds, ETFs, and others accumulate enough Bitcoin to push it into the next era.
Since Bitcoin is considered a store of value like gold, but it’s also software with superior utility — it moves instantly over the internet and is accessible to all retail investors so the re-accumulation period should be roughly half as long as gold’s. While gold needed 8+ years, Bitcoin could complete this phase in 3–4 years. During that time, other tech cryptocurrencies will likely outperform Bitcoin to catch up.
This is one of the biggest reasons I lean more toward ETH and maybe a few select altcoins in the years ahead rather than Bitcoin. You don’t want to be caught holding mostly Bitcoin if it stays relatively flat while others deliver strong gains. So make sure to stay diversified, especially in times like these where traditional cycles aren’t playing out the same way anymore.
Besides that, I barely make fractals, but here’s the one and only scenario that might actually play out. As you already know, there are two sides to the story: the 2022 fractal (bear market) and the early 2023 fractal (when the bull market began). In reality, it will be a combination of both.
We won’t purely follow the 2022 fractal and the bottom is already in. From here, we’ll revisit the ATH either making a shallow new ATH or a small blow-off top into my previous main targets of 160k to the 1.618 extension at around 173k. Then, as the 2023 fractal people scream that "this is just the beginning" we’ll instead drop again following the 2022 fractal back down into the 50k range. Once that happens, the real 2023 fractal will begin.
Do you see the game? It’s ahead of what everyone is screaming about right now. In the meantime, ETFs and institutions will keep re-accumulating enough Bitcoin over the next 3–4 years to eventually push it toward 700k and higher.
This plan also incorporates a macro divergence: while Bitcoin (as a store of value) moves sideways or retraces, other tech assets will start to outperform. This means that for ETH and some altcoins, the bottom is already in and by the time Bitcoin revisits the 50k zone later this year or early next year, there’s a strong chance ETH and the rest won’t make new lows while Bitcoin does. We’re already seeing this pattern now as ETH did not break below its April 2025 lows while Bitcoin did, so expect the same story to repeat when Bitcoin reaches the 50s again, ETH might hold around 3k (or higher), and by the time the 2023 fractal starts to kick in for BTC, ETH can start the run to 10k–14k or more as Bitcoin only moves from the 50s back up to its previous ATH. This is the era of divergence we’re entering — continued outperformance of other assets versus Bitcoin in the mid/long term.
Interestingly, at the same relative RMC RSI in each cycle, Bitcoin was 1 month out from reaching cycle bottom prices or retesting the RMC Moving Average.
42.5k in a month? Maybe.
Would that be the cycle bottom? Also maybe, in the same way that June 2022 was the cycle bottom but retested the moving average again in November 2022 at lower prices (16.5k).
Wondering why Crypto hasn't gone parabolic yet?
This chart couldn't make it any more obvious:
Crypto Bull Markets follow the business cycle - not a 4 year cycle.
- PMI > 50 (expansion) → trends up
- PMI < 50 (contraction) → stalls
Here's what most people aren't paying attention to:
PMI just printed it's first 3 straight months above 50 in years
Last time was Mid-2020 - it took a few months to build and then...
→ BTC went ~$9K → $69K
→ Alts followed after and went literally VERTICAL
Same setup.
Let the simulation do it's thing...It’s just a matter of time.
And another one.
The business cycle just locked its third consecutive month in expansion…
Bringing in the highest reading in 3 years at 52.7.
As I have been saying for ages now, Bitcoin has never entered a prolonged bear cycle within business cycle expansion.
It has bad corrections, and this has been a deep one.
But we are not following the 4 year cycle bear market because the cycle is actually governed by the business cycle and that is expanding, not contracting.
Everyone is gonna have to see this one to believe it, I understand.
But it’s happening.
After one month it was “it’s gonna drop next month it’s a one off”
After the second it was “yeh but it’s cos tarrifs”
Now the third month it’s “yeh but war will drag it down bro”
It’s three months in a row guys.
It’s a trend.
New highs this year really isn’t off the cards.
Bitcoin has continued to search for a bottom, and I still think that the $60k is a good place to look. We may well undercut it at some point, but based on the power law support line and the gold/Bitcoin ratio, I believe that level should act as a floor.
We know standard Weekly RSI is at cycle bottom levels, but let's look at it a different way...
This is the Weekly RSI of Bitcoin's Realized Market Cap, which gives us a similar result to what metrics like Puell Multiple, MVRV, and NUPL tell us:
Bitcoin is close to cycle bottom levels, but slightly off.
The Realized Market Cap Makes For a great cycle bottom moving average as well and has caught each of them precisely. The price to reach is 42.5k and is decreasing slightly over time.
Antes de estudar Bitcoin, estudem como funciona o sistema monetário.
O dólar não pode ser expandido infinitamente, porque dólar é dívida e dívidas não podem serem expandidas infinitamente.
Da mesma forma que o banco não te emprestaria se você devesse 10 anos da sua renda, os credores do tesouro também farão o mesmo. A única contrapartida possível, é elevar os juros a níveis altíssimos, o que aumenta ainda mais a dívida e aprofunda ainda mais o problema.
O único jeito viável de resolver isso, é através de um calote parcial, que vai deflacionar toda a economia, quando vários do que são chamados de "dólares" hoje simplesmente virarem pó e deixarem de existir.
Liquidações de alavancagem também vão acontecer e agravar a crise deflacionaria.
@Higa1_ @CarameloWeb3 Você caiu nessa mesmo kkkkkkkkkk
Ele fica dando palpite pra tudo que é lado o tempo todo, mandou todo mundo comprar recentemente nos $87/90k 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
GOLD HITS ATH
SILVER HITS ATH
S&P500 HITS ATH
PLATINUM HITS ATH
BUT $BTC STILL DUMPING...
Most people don't understand what's happening right now.
This isn’t a contradiction. It’s HOW RISK ROTATES.
If you hold crypto right now, you MUST read this post:
When uncertainty spikes, BIG MONEY doesn't chase returns.
They PROTECT CAPITAL first.
That’s why:
→ GOLD HITS NEW HIGHS
→ SILVER FOLLOWS WITH LEVERAGE
→ All other metals are pumping like never before
Bitcoin isn’t a fear hedge in phase one.
It’s a LIQUIDITY TRADE.
And liquidity is tight right now. This is the same sequence every cycle:
- Shock hits.
- Money runs to safety.
- Volatility peaks.
- Liquidity stabilizes.
BTC MOVES LAST AND FASTEST.
Why?
Becaue people expect BTC to front-run everything. It doesn’t.
It front-runs MONETARY EASING, not panic.
Right now markets are still pricing RISK, not relief.
Once the dollar rolls.
Once yields calm.
Once liquidity turns.
Crypto stops dumping and starts OUTPERFORMING.
If this price action confuses you, you’re early not wrong.
I have been studying macro for 10 years and I EXACTLY know how does it work.
Follow me and turn NOTIFICATIONS ON and I will share my next move soon.
Many people will regret not following me earlier...
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