Ottavi

Investor. ~15 years in the public markets. Mostly fintech, internet, and consumer.

Writings:

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

I think $ABNB stock performance since IPO is more easily explained by a high starting valuation and slowing growth because it saturated its core market and hasn’t been able to expand beyond that enough to move the needle.

$HLT and $MAR are also highly levered to capital investment cycles of their suppliers (franchisees) but their stocks have done materially better over the same timeframe. Starting valuation, multiple expansion/contraction etc all matter but I don’t think it’s as simple as saying $ABNB stock hasn’t worked because its suppliers are asset intensive.

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

Yeah, I agree those are real costs. I’m not trying to say otherwise — more that even after paying distribution fees to $COIN et al that the business generates real contribution profit.

If we look at net income, $CRCL is annualizing $220M — significantly less than adj EBITDA but still comfortably profitable.

I do think there’s a valid question about where margins after distribution fees go long-term especially with increasing competition from $V $MA consortium and others.

[Tom Noyes @noyesclt]

At UBS conference in Napa today. I was asked why alternative schemes are not a threat to Visa and Mastercard. My response was economics and shared investment. While it may be possible to create a better CX w/ alternative scheme like iDeal it is a one off that doesn’t scale. Networks provide economics for others to innovate and invest. Networks don’t pick winners. They want investment. They enable 1000s of fintechs both economically and operationally with consistent rules standards operations VAS and agreements. To beat V/MA you not only need to build a better network and a better CX with better economics for every stakeholder. If you don’t you are competing against the combined interests of everyone that has invested in the network. That’s a heavy lift.

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

@signulll Agree

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

There was much debate a few years ago when GLP-1s first came onto the scene about impacts across the economy and sectors but feels like this has mostly been put aside due to AI, Iran etc — it seems like 2026 will be the year that there’ll be high enough mass market adoption where we should see second order effects start to play out.

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

Not great for shareholders who have seen the stock flat since IPO 6 years ago $ABNB

[Negligible Capital @negligible_cap]

*AIRBNB'S CHESKY PLANS NEW AI LAB, IN EARLY STAGES OF FUNDING

$ABNB CEO starting a new AI lab to develop AI models. Chesky will remain the ABNB CEO – didn’t have that on the bingo card

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

Good honest summary of where things are at:

[jessy @13yearoldvc]

https://t.co/DGdLu79krs

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

A long way to go…

[philip @philipglazman]

agentic payments

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

…but to scaffolding being built and agents will need to be paid

[Matthew Prince 🌥 @eastdakota]

@dee_bosa Clearly it’s going to be pay to crawl. Now just need the protocols and infrastructure to support the volume it’ll require. Working on it.

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

Where does this fall in Mauboussin’s base rates analysis?

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS SPACEX’S AI REVENUE TO SURGE 100 TIMES BY 2030

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

@BrianInCrypto Users just want solutions that work — 99% or debit/credit card users have no idea what goes on behind the scenes. They just know when they swipe/tap they can transact.

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

@JackFarley96 Speculative assets selling off while institutions adopting blockchain as infrastructure seems healthy for the industry!

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

Quick follow-up: Revolut’s growth has been impressive but it seems like US is a key growth market and it feels like US digital banking is becoming increasingly competitive with Revolut and $NU joining the host of other neobanks already competing in the market

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

Revolut reportedly targeting a $200B IPO by 2028. Current valuation of $75B already assumes valuation multiple more than double public comps. It seems like co is targeting global expansion to drive the growth to justify the IPO valuation including recently filing for US banking charter. US neobanking an increasingly crowded field with convergence in business models.

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon summed up Revolut’s rise last month when speaking about its own UK operation. “I’m jealous, damn it,” he said. “You watch these people, they move.”

https://t.co/dIHB7VAszU

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

$V $MA trying to ensure they remain the network orchestrators for consumer-based payments

https://t.co/v4B0dD6BBc

[CoinDesk @CoinDesk]

SCOOP: @Stripe, @Visa and @Mastercard are close to launching a joint stablecoin platform.

@IanAllison123 reports.

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

@JerryCap The alpha is undeniable!

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

Why do you think it’ll close to ~10% from its current discount? I don’t have empirical data in front of me but my experience is HoldCo discounts are typically closer to 30% than 10% until there’s an unlocking event that doesn’t seem relevant in this case given the assets / structure.

Not apples to apples but Prosus/Tencent comes to mind.

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

I would argue that 4 is early, not that it’s already played out, and is the reason to be excited about crypto/blockchain. But it’ll likely accrue to companies leveraging blockchain to create better products / services not tokens so is likely not how people typically view “crypto.”

Of course, most tokens — many which have very questionable LT value — and $BTC get most of the headlines/attention.

[Ottavi @ottavi_]

https://t.co/5c0BVEq7Pu

Boomers now aware of hyperliquid:native

[jedimarkus77 @jedimarkus77]

Wow, what is going on with $CBOE and $CME???