Outer Ninth

Thematic investor | Ichimoku swing trader
Equities & crypto since 2017
Market structure, secular trends & trade journal

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

BOOKMARK THIS ! Thematic sector timelines i'm actively tracking and trading

1. Memory
2025 >2026/2027 > 2027/2028
2. Photonics & Optical interconnects
2025 > 2027/2030 > 2032-2035
3. CPO (co-packaged optics)
2027 > 2027-2032 > 2035+
4. 800V & Power semiconductors
2026 > 2027-2032 > 2035+
5. MLCC's, ABF substrates & CCL's
2025 > 2026-2027 > 2028-2029
6. Humanoid robotics & Edge AI
2028-2032 > 2032-2045+ > 2050+

Early shipments or inflection > scale shipments or peak demand > normalization or slow down

Keeping in mind the market is forward looking.

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

@CryptoSays Incoming volatility

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

@TheShortBear Definitely will be up multiples, I’ve been posting about hyperliquid:native for a while now (and $PURR ). Check it out

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Stick with trusted voices on Substack, not unethical legacy media editors who conflate angles and sensationalize misleading headlines/manufactured narratives for clicks to goose their traffic metrics. They don’t care about your economic welfare, only their careers.

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

@firstadopter Agreed, i've been waiting for this retest. 🤝
https://t.co/ZxEGMMLWGT

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

The memory complex is not dead $000660.KW
Orders filled on SK Hynix at the weekly Tenkan-sen.. Mark this post, I will come back to it in a few months. While some FURUs were panicking with this sell off, we were adding to our bags. Take note
o9.

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

@BULLOFBRITAIN @eliant_capital I also jumped in, been waiting for the retest.
https://t.co/ZxEGMMLWGT

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

The memory complex is not dead $000660.KW
Orders filled on SK Hynix at the weekly Tenkan-sen.. Mark this post, I will come back to it in a few months. While some FURUs were panicking with this sell off, we were adding to our bags. Take note
o9.

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

Updated memory list;
1. Sk Hynix $00690.KS
2. Micron $MU
3. Samsung $005930.KS
4. Kioxia $285A.T / $KXIAY
5. Winbond $2344.TW
6. AP Memory $6531.TW
7. Phison electronics $8299.TW
8. Sandisk $SNDK
9. Western Digital $WDC
10. Silicon Motion $SIMO

https://t.co/0XMFY3Pb9H

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

@LIWEI_TWCapital Also one of my recent memory positions along with Phison.

[LIWEI_TW Capital @LIWEI_TWCapital]

Today actually surprised me.

I thought the U.S. selloff would spill over hard into Asia. If the Meta FUD were truly signaling a structural slowdown in AI, Taiwan—the heart of the AI supply chain—should’ve been hit the hardest.

Instead, Taiwan, Japan, and Korea all opened slightly lower and quickly found buyers.

Since I had already trimmed last week, I decided not to reduce further today. Instead, I started a new position in AP Memory (https://t.co/tE6Rq9NEbU).

Why AP Memory?

1. S-SiCap Silicon Capacitors (Fastest Growth Driver)
• Gen4 delivers 3.8 μF/mm² density (+50%+ vs prior gen) with ultra-thin profile — critical for power/signal integrity in AI chiplet packaging.

• Interposer version already in 4-reticle mass production; discrete Gen4 ramping through 2026.

• Q1 2026 revenue surged ~8.7× YoY to NT$572M (27% of total). Management guides strong growth in 2026–27 on AI server/HPC demand.

2. Intel EMIB-T Exposure
• Supplying silicon capacitors/IPDs for Intel’s EMIB advanced packaging — a key alternative to TSMC CoWoS as capacity stays tight through 2027.
• President noted EMIB creates “sizable business opportunities” in embedded substrates. First shipments and volume production underway in 2026.

3. IoTRAM + VHM (Memory Substitution Tailwind)
• AI-driven HBM shift is tightening conventional DRAM supply. AP Memory’s customized IoTRAM is seeing strong substitution demand and price upside.
• Q1 2026 total revenue +115% YoY to NT$2.1B (IoTRAM ~70%). VHM now in active discussions with data center customers for AI accelerators.

Bottom line: Clear product ramps + dual exposure to TSMC CoWoS + Intel EMIB ecosystems + structural memory tightness. Execution already visible in Q1 results. Added on today’s dip after trimming last week.

Next week, when the U.S. market reopens, I’ll continue rotating the capital I trimmed from photonics into $PENG and $GLW. At current levels, I still see both as attractive bargains.

Hopefully sharing my trading journal helps some of you make better investment decisions. Wishing everyone a great week ahead, and let’s keep learning and growing together. ❤️

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

Reiterating my Ciena call here at $420 $CIEN as price consolidates on the weekly Kijun-sen after getting a much needed RSI cool off after it's massive move.
Ciena is a scale across and networking leader with a massive multi billion dollar backlog and strong hyperscale relationships.

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

Ciena $CIEN 1W chart.
This is a buy for me right now with size, it just corrected -35% and bounced right on the Weekly Kijun which as you can see it has not touched since June 2025. Weekly RSI has been reset to the median level around 50. This one is going higher IMO.

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

Memory complex is not dead #2 $285A.JP
Kioxia position added to via OTC listing $KXIAY at the weekly Tenkan-sen at $48.
From outer ninth research: "Memory is no longer governed by cyclical supply response. It is governed by a persistent imbalance between workload expansion and structurally constrained supply elasticity, partially locked in place by contractural allocation systems."

Meaning workload expansion or memory demand is still expanding faster than supply, when this dynamic changes or begins to change we will sell memory but for now we are still buying or adding to positions.

I will come back to these memory position adds a couple months from now 💯. 🤝

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

The memory complex is not dead $000660.KW
Orders filled on SK Hynix at the weekly Tenkan-sen.. Mark this post, I will come back to it in a few months. While some FURUs were panicking with this sell off, we were adding to our bags. Take note
o9.

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

@LIWEI_TWCapital @Gubloinvestor Pretty disgraceful, no edge, no time in market, just a fake person that steals others info and sells it as his own. SMH

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

$OUST red hot humanoid robotics name with a nasty upper wick. Lidar sensor and spatial perception for humanoid application. I'm expecting price to react in the green box, weekly Kijun support at 39.
Patience.

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

With lower bitcoin:native prices in mind i took some off ethereum:0xde4ee8057785a7e8e800db58f9784845a5c2cbd6 here.
I'm not loving the weekly bearish divergence up here indicating declining HTF momentum and we are not in a trending crypto environment so better safe then sorry. Even though we got a great bounce from the weekly kijun i'm using it to take profit near the highs.
buy red, sell green.

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

Bullish divergence noted on bitcoin:native daily but this is just a relief bounce IMO. Price could bounce to 70k but i do not think 70k will be decisively reclaimed at this time and will likely reject around there. You can see the Kumo getting wider and pointing downwards indicating increasing momentum. @pumpc4t

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

@pequityresearch Renesas $6723.JP does look great but i like Infineon $IFX.DE & Delta Electronics $2308.TW to play the
800 VDC shift from present levels.

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

https://t.co/v7d2aKD7Vb

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

$ASX advanced packaging name, breakout to new highs. This is the US listing but also trades under $3711.TW and is based in Taiwan. I'm expecting this CPO related name to do very well in 2027 & 2028 as CPO begins to ramp. Advanced packaging is a bottleneck, i'm long ASX.

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

[News] ASE Reportedly Raises Advanced Packaging Quotes by More Than 20% in Latest AI-Driven Price Hike

AI-driven semiconductor demand is reportedly fueling another round of price increases across the OSAT industry. According to MoneyDJ, citing industry sources, ASE, the world’s leading outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) provider, has raised its packaging quotes by more than 20%, driven by higher raw material costs and higher long-term investment costs.

The latest price increases cover advanced packaging technologies such as Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) and Fan-Out Chip on Substrate (FoCoS), with major U.S. customers among those affected, the report says.

ASE declined to comment on the market speculation, the report adds.

The report indicates that ASE has become a key beneficiary of the AI-driven advanced packaging boom. With TSMC’s CoWoS capacity still supply-constrained and outsourcing continuing to increase, the company is seeing stronger demand for its on-substrate (oS) packaging and chip probing (CP) services.

Meanwhile, utilization rates across the OSAT industry remain near full capacity, with both leading and smaller providers actively expanding capacity to meet rising demand, the report notes.

AI Fuels OSAT Investment and Capacity Expansion

Commenting on the pricing strategy, ASE COO Tien Wu said the increases reflect two key factors: higher raw material costs and growing capital investment requirements, according to MoneyDJ.

Those long-term investments are being fueled by AI. According to Liberty Times, Wu said AI has become the key driver behind ASE’s capacity expansion plans. As AI adoption extends beyond data centers into physical AI applications such as automotive electronics and humanoid robots, he described the trend as a long-term structural shift and said the ASE Group is “going all out” to expand capacity.

To support future demand, Wu estimates that ASE and its subsidiary SPIL have around 15 new factory projects underway this year to prepare for demand expected from 2029 to 2030 and beyond, according to Liberty Times. ASE increased capital expenditures to US$5.3 billion in 2025 and further raised its 2026 capex to US$8.5 billion, with additional increases remaining possible.

The aggressive capacity expansion reflects a broader industry trend. As noted by Economic Daily News, competition in AI has expanded beyond leading-edge processes, making backend packaging, testing, and assembly increasingly critical to chip performance, yields, and time-to-market. As a result, major OSAT providers are accelerating investments in technologies such as 2.5D/3D packaging, chiplets, HBM integration, and panel-level packaging, further positioning the sector as a key capacity bottleneck in the AI semiconductor supply chain.

[Outer Ninth @outerninth]

$ASX advanced packaging name, breakout to new highs. This is the US listing but also trades under $3711.TW and is based in Taiwan. I'm expecting this CPO related name to do very well in 2027 & 2028 as CPO begins to ramp. Advanced packaging is a bottleneck, i'm long ASX.