overnumbered

uneducated Riftbound collector. pretty good at LoL and TFT.

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@RiftboundGG Never bet against worlds '25 boxes.

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@Crypto_LJenkins Sell me CN arcane boxes please

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The most undervalued Riftbound buys right now:
[list of things I'm over-invested in]

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@LSXYZ9 Exactly. They all need to grab a 6 pack, binge Arcane, and play some TFT or something

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@LSXYZ9 Shes a beauty

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Now that Riftbound prices have dropped 6.9% overnight, I can confidently say the market is dead.

The best you can hope to do is sell me your Baron Nashor Ultimates or Project K Promo Cards for sub $500 and find a new hobby.

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@tronisbad I'm already sad for when Origins goes out of print.

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@Jordan72741832 @smertcollector Where is this confirmed?

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@DonMemelol Interesting. I haven't opened either, but I've heard the English ones feel very high quality.

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@fomosaurus Grail

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@FourCorners_ Partially due to gacha companies buying up PSA stock. I've seen EN Arcane Jinx pop up as chase cards on a couple already.

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@Riftvesting Makes sense. Picking some up now, ty

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Which of my 3 followers bought these an hour ago.

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Project K trial decks will obvious Riftbound grails in hindsight. CN undervalued vs EN.

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@CollectStrategy Yep, Riftbound wasn't named till months after the CN Arcane box and 2024 trial decks releasead. Was still named Project K.

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Visited over 200 vendors in the last 2 weeks. Less than 10 had sealed Riftbound, maybe 4 had singles.

[Collectible Strategy @CollectStrategy]

- Less than 5% of Gacha companies have Riftbound set up. This will become 20% (4x)

- Less than 1% of vendors have Riftbound in their inventory. This will become 5% (5x)

- Less than .0005% of League players own a Riftbound card. This will become .005% (10x)

We are so early.

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Chinese pop likely exaggerated, credit to @poke_maam for the insights https://t.co/PhK9DQgdoq

[Pokemaam @poke_maam]

Ok, thought exercise time on Riftbound trial deck populations.

This guy believes PSA pop counts are inaccurate and it's better to guess supply based on price (lol). See, yes I do think people are wrong on the ENG pop that is why I'm gonna post a tweet on it.

Now, 19 Jinx from the Eng trial deck have been graded. If the claim that only 100 Jinx decks exist is true, it means 19% of the total pop has been graded. I think this is very unlikely, but yes it is possible.

More reasonably, we can estimtate the rates assuming 5k silver packs (per @RiftboundGG) have been graded contaning the specific leader card and how many have been graded by PSA. Tbh the exact number doesn't matter because it's relative, but it's easier to visualize so let's use that.

Using the same rates applied to ENG and CN number of graded leaders, you get a range of 900-1.3k ENG decks (230-340 complete sets) and 500-670 CN decks (130-170). And when you see this, I thought think - ok, this sounds off, but anecdotally we are told there are more CN decks as they were released subsequently also.

So let's revise the rates a bit, and assume only 25% (this is arbitrary) of CN decks were graded relative to silver packs rate. This gives a range of 2-2.7k Chinese decks across all 4, or 500-700 complete sets.

Now people argue ENG rates are much higher. I was gonna us 4x modifier, but let's be more generous and use 5x. This puts ENG decks at 700-1.1k, or 170-270 complete sets.

This is far from the 5-10% ENG/CN supply people are suggesting, and I suspect it's part of a false narrative to pump the ENG prices by people who have hoarded them.

Ofc I could be totally confidently wrong and somehow a huge number of ENG decks are already graded. I do feel you often don't need to overthink these things.

For me, I like working off numbers than just throwing out random numbers. Sure, both are speculative, but I think dismissing numbers and explaining why they should be dismissed is EVEN MORE speculative.

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Project K trial decks will obvious Riftbound grails in hindsight. CN undervalued vs EN.

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can't wait to help people waste money on cardboard