Stop comparing this correction to past bear markets.
We’re still mid-cycle.
A significantly extended cycle.
At the first bullish inflection since 2020.
Over the past 30 days, $STRC has been less volatile than every company in the S&P 500—and every major asset class—while delivering an 11.5% dividend yield.
I can see how despondent everyone is about crypto and the pure chartists are telling you it's all over, but I don't agree...
Global Liquidity is the most dominant macro factor in history with a 90% correlation to BTC and 97% to NDX since 2012. It is growing at around 10% a year and is not slowing.
GMI financial conditions lead it by 6 months. They are still easing.
The air pocket was US Total Liquidty which was curtailed by the shut down. It leads crypto by 3 months and is accelerating from its low 3 months ago.
The business cycle is the key driver of earning and thus risk. It is accelerating.
The eSLR is the mechanism by which banks can increase liquidity via credit and absorbing treasury issuance. This liquidity is rising too and will accelerate.
Tax refunds land on bank balance sheets and add to propensity of credit creation and thus liquidity.
China is accelerating expanding its balance sheet.
More rate cuts are coming in the US and will add to disposable income and thus risk taking.
CLARITY Act will likely get agreed and adds to flows. The wall of banks and asset managers wanting to use this technology is enormous and this bill sorts that out.
Stablecoins are accelerating and issuance grew 50% last year and is accelerating. Volumes are in the trillions of $'s and are accelerating.
We have the most supportive government for crypto ever in the US.
Finally the agents are coming and will hyper accelerate. They are an entirely new TAM
The crypto market is still in fear and by most measures the most oversold in history.
Weekly DeMark indicators would give a very solid base in 2 weeks (you can now get them officially on Trading View).
Daily DeMark's are stack up too. Any weakness from here will complete the dailies and the weeklies indicating full trend reversal potential.
The risk factor is how long oil prices stay up.
The next 2 weeks are the key focus.
I think this all resolves positively.
Higher.
Welcome to WEEK THREE of daily Crypto Market Scans, M-F at 7pm EST.
Set a reminder, invite some friends, grab a drink or snack and come ready to participate!
After reviewing the Senate Banking draft text over the last 48hrs, Coinbase unfortunately can’t support the bill as written.
There are too many issues, including:
- A defacto ban on tokenized equities
- DeFi prohibitions, giving the government unlimited access to your financial records and removing your right to privacy
- Erosion of the CFTC’s authority, stifling innovation and making it subservient to the SEC
- Draft amendments that would kill rewards on stablecoins, allowing banks to ban their competition
We appreciate all the hard work by members of the Senate to reach a bi-partisan outcome, but this version would be materially worse than the current status quo. We’d rather have no bill than a bad bill. Hopefully we can all get to a better draft.
We'll keep fighting for all Americans and for economic freedom. Crypto needs to be treated on a level playing field with the rest of financial services so we can build this industry in a safe and trusted way in America.
Monday - Friday @ 7pm EST
Covering BTC, ETH, SOL & several other major crypto alts. Bring your chart requests and questions. Good vibes only.
I'm just a chart guy.