Creo

studying the future. posting the useful bits.

[Alex Stone @a1exstone]

Warren Buffett bought a business he never audited, from a woman about to turn 90, on a single handshake:

"I would frankly rather have Mrs. B's word than the opinion of all of the big eight auditors"

this is him and Mrs. B explaining why he refused to open a single page of her books, all the buyers she turned down for almost 20 years before him, and the one demand that killed every deal that came before his

"if they could take 500 and create this out of it, I've totally wanted to let them keep playing the hand"

Mrs. B on why the money men never got her: "if you could change your wife for a 20-year-old girl, I don't trust you. I want cash"

bookmark & watch the full conversation - then read the article below ↓

[Creo @oxCreo]

@adriancortexbt suing the government and actually winning is a different level of conviction

[Creo @oxCreo]

Matt Hawrilenko left a Wall Street trading desk to play poker full time and won a World Series bracelet. Then a better player pushed 1,080,000 chips at him on the river and he folded pocket aces:

"forget their hand, forget their range. Don't think about it"

this is him explaining what he does instead of putting an opponent on a range, why he says the tells everyone stares for are worth nothing, and the read he calls the strongest of his life that ended his tournament

"everyone is basically chance or maybe like 53%. So they do exactly the same as the random people off the street, these body language experts, except for one difference. The one difference is they are way more confident that they are right"

"however confident you think you are in your read, you are probably overestimating it"

Jared Ankenman on optimal play: "If I truly played optimally, I could write down my entire strategy on a piece of paper. What I would do in every single situation, and I could give it to you, and you couldn't beat me"

bookmark & watch the full conversation - then read the article below ↓

[Alex Stone @a1exstone]

https://t.co/aZcwlyiUJc

[Creo @oxCreo]

@amodexbt Saved

[Amodex @amodexbt]

MIT economist Jonathan Gruber offered his class a coin flip worth $125 against $100 - 60% of them refused, then he proved they were right:

"I'm offering you a bet that is more than fair, and you will pay me almost half of your entire wealth to avoid taking that bet. That's risk aversion"

this is him explaining the four theories economists use for why anyone buys a lottery ticket, which one of them would justify shutting lotteries down entirely, and the $5 mug experiment that breaks the standard model of human behavior

"people spend 1.5 trillion dollars a year on insurance products, almost 10% of GDP. The insurance companies expect to pay $300 a year, and they're getting almost $400 a year in premium"

"the lottery is a total ripoff, for every dollar you spend, the expected payout is 50 cents, in some low-income communities, among some low-income groups, they'll spend as much as 20% of their income every year on the lottery"

bookmark & watch the full conversation - then read the article below ↓

[Creo @oxCreo]

@amodexbt The real leap is moving from configuring workflows to assigning outcomes and letting the agent system handle coordination.

[Creo @oxCreo]

@amodexbt Yeah, once agents can own roles and hand work off, the whole operating model changes.

[Creo @oxCreo]

@amodexbt Scale only works when reliability grows with it.

[Creo @oxCreo]

@amodexbt A cool comparison...