I called $LENS $1M ➡️ $11M
I called $PVS $2M ➡️ $20M
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I called $COLLAT $15M ➡️ $90M
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The MVRV Z-Score is 1.87, suggesting the market is moderately overvalued but far from any extreme levels.
For reference, the market often peaked when MVRV pushed above 7.5 (4X from here).
Up we go?
#Bitcoin
It’s time for our weekly review! We’ll break down the markets before taking a look at highlights from inside our community as well as major news and how it impacted our decisions. We’ll also discuss the macroeconomic impacts of the previous and upcoming weeks - let’s go!
Market overview - weekly performance
$BTC -4.8%
$SPX +0.0%
$NQ +0.53%
$DJI -0.15%
Crypto Sentiment Check
We continue to see a cooling off in the #crypto space following May’s surge. Both #Bitcoin and $alts have been slower and less exciting, with a majority trading below key moving averages.
Top Trades
$POPCAT moved an incredible +121% since our call on Monday. It started bouncing as #BTC was plunging into its weekly low, and the relative strength and chart setup is what we picked up on to catch this great pump.
Member trades spotlight
Our Exclusive Nest Club member @NicinskiPiotr has been all over the trades, this time catching a beauty long on $PEPE - well done sir!
Lessons learned
⦁Be selective and patient for the right trades
⦁Remember to take profits on the bounce
⦁Welcome the idea of lower prices
Crypto Highlights
Top performing coins this week (Top 500):
1. $POPCAT +135%
2. $LOCUS +123%
3. $BETA +109%
Biggest losers (Top 500):
1. $CREAM -26%
2. $BAKE -24%
3. $TURBO -23%
Significant news in the crypto space
⦁ ETH CME Open Interest hit an ATH
⦁ SEC could approve spot Ethereum ETFs by July 4
⦁ VanEck files for the first Solana ETF
Economic Indicator highlights
Q1 GDP growth rate (final): 1.4% vs 1.4% expected and 3.4% prior PCE Price Index: 2.6% vs 2.6% expected and 2.7% prior
Core PCE: 2.6% vs 2.6% expected and 2.8% prior
How did these indicators affect the market and our strategies?
Early in the week, we saw a relief bounce across the board as #Bitcoin and altcoins became oversold. Taking advantage of this, we were able to catch some lovely trades. However, we were aware of the data coming up and that it could lead to a double-dip effect. The GDP data had relatively low impact on the markets. However, Friday’s PCE numbers caused a slight dip in the US dollar. Crypto did not, however, react with corresponding strength. This raises some concern going forward and it’s something we are keeping an eye on. We want to see Bitcoin start to display strength that matches the legacy markets’ performance along with potential dollar weakness.
Upcoming Week
⦁ISM Manufacturing PMI
⦁JOLTS Job Openings
⦁ISM Services PMI
⦁FOMC Minutes
⦁Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
What we’re watching
This week is jam-packed with impact events. This can make for a fun trading environment but it can also be dangerous if using too much leverage. Until the market returns to uptrend mode, we have to expect each of these events could potentially lead to some selling initially, or intense volatility in either direction that could force liquidations. Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls carry the biggest weight of the reports expected.
Community Spotlight
Our community is growing stronger with members helping each other day in and day out. Here’s just a quick snippet of what we’ve got going on.
Upcoming community events
Subscribe to our YouTube channel to catch all the livestreams and market updates throughout the week: https://t.co/89I8t9suIR
Closing Thoughts - TLDR
⦁ The market demonstrates locally declining sentiment with more assets trading below key moving averages.
⦁ Long trades are against the trend, so take profits on bounces.
⦁ The week ahead brings heavy economic data which may or may not help crypto but will likely cause volatility. We are tuned in.
What are your thoughts about the week ahead? Share in the comments!
Join Us
⦁ Follow @thebirbnest for more updates and insights
⦁ Access our group and start trading like a pro (FREE 7-day trial): https://t.co/H9Ie8GU8rg
⦁ Subscribe to our newsletter for detailed analyses
https://t.co/GH2TdTa1CY
Many didn't believe this HTF retest would come, but many wanted it.
Now that we are here, everyone is scared to bid $SOIL.
You wanted it before, are you bidding on altcoins now, which are in one of the hottest #RWA sectors, or are you scared?
Your window of opportunity to buy cheaper $SOIL is now.
Breadth analysis reveals market weakness.
Only 5% cryptos are short-term bullish.
95% of coins are bearish vs. their 20-day trends.
Not losing long-term bull off sight, preserving capital during times of weakness lets you multiply - otherwise lost - capital in Q4.
#BTFD
#Bitcoin & #Crypto Market Update 📚
HTF 1W:
Bitcoin remains stable at $69,930, supported by key SMA levels that suggest bullish undertones. The 50-week and 200-week SMAs are at $43,950 and $35,358 respectively, reinforcing market optimism. The 7-week SPX correlation coefficient is now at 0.36.
HTF 1D:
Bitcoin holds firm at $69,930, with the 200-day BPRO trend support at $62,580 and 200-day SMA support at $53,516. The RSI is at 59, indicating stronger buying interest, though the 50-day momentum is stalling at 49. The ATR is at 2480, with the 50-day volatility index stalling at 3080, suggesting potential stability.
HTF 12H & MTF 4H:
As indicated by the CTF and HTF Trailers in bull mode, more bullish sentiment prevails, with stop supports at $66,689 and $64,275, respectively. Trading bands are set between $71.5k to $73.1k for the High Band and $63.6k to $65.1k for the Low Band, crucial for near-term movements.
Fear & Greed Index:
Currently at 74, signaling 'Greed' and indicating strong market optimism, but with caution against potential overextensions.
Mining Costs:
Bitcoin mining costs have decreased to $70,563, impacting profitability margins for miners. The Average Mining Costs to Bitcoin Price Ratio is 1.03.
Seasonality & Outlook:
May 27 - June 1 (2010-2024) shows +1,759.06% annualized return and 53.85% profitable trades. Average and median returns are +3.95% and +1.57%, respectively.
Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL):
The NUPL stands at 0.57, indicating a significant portion of the market is in profit, which might lead to increased selling pressure as investors seek to capitalize on gains.
ETFs:
The cumulative ETF volumes have risen to $272.28B, representing 91.21% of the total Bitcoin ETFs market (spot + futures). Total net flow is positive, rising to $251.9M as of May 24, 2024.
Trade & learn with us: https://t.co/KWD5AWHnGX
#Bitcoin & Market Update 📈📉
HTF 1D: $BTC maintains stability at $60,800, supported by the slowing but rising 200-day BPRO trend at $61,250.
The RSI at 43, with a flat 50-day momentum at 49, reflects a balanced market sentiment.
An ATR of 2780 indicates elevated but declining volatility alongside a rising 50-day volatility index at 3380.
HTF 12H & MTF 4H: Mixed sentiments persist, with the CTF Trailer in bear mode, setting resistance at $64,512, while the HTF Trailer remains in bear mode, with resistance at $64,030.
Trading bands range from $64.2k to $65.2k for the High Band and $58.9k to $59.9k for the Low Band, crucial for near-term price actions.
Fear & Greed Index: Currently at 53, indicating 'Neutral,' signifying a balanced market sentiment.
ETFs: Netflow -$11.3 million (per 9th May); Cumulative Spot Bitcoin ETF Volumes: $254.03 billion.
Get our trading calls: https://t.co/KWD5AWHnGX
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🔔Bitcoin Mining Costs Spike to $102K
Bitcoin production costs @ $102,093 are causing miner profitability. As Cambridge University data shows, a current cost-to-price ratio of 1.57 and a 30-day average of 0.81 influence miner activity; fewer miners operate when costs > profits.