Pablo Ordóñez Bravo

building AI in housing development. studying and thinking about real estate, finance, and tech @wharton. opinions my own

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

@amorriscode @ninan_phillip Can you guys do “open in a new window” for separate chats / cowork / code sessions

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

If you think Kirkland is smart:

They’re not making a bet they’ll out-engineer Harvey (they obviously won’t). They’re betting they won’t have to rent back their highest-margin work from vendors who also sell to rivals. So they own the data, capture the surplus, and pay 1% of revenue for the optionality…and get cheap insurance.

If you think Kirkland is dumb:

You don’t believe their workflow data is actually differentiated versus other elite firms, the $500M becomes a down payment on a permanent obligation (the frontier is constantly depreciating = forever R&D bill), and they won’t win a talent war where they can’t hand engineers equity.

I wonder who will be right!

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

@mspringut No bigger privilege than to live our dreams

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

@mmaaz_98 This week on HBO’s Silicon Valley

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

@hecubian_devil @admcrlsn I fear this take is too sensible

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

@PollTracker2024 Was a margin of error not published? Can’t tell if this is statistically significant without.

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

Completely missed that you can now switch models on @claudeai mid-chat!

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

@theo Adaptive thinking is terrible. Claude's making 10x more mistakes because it doesn't actually think or review the documents I've asked it to. Huge regression.

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

@trq212 @RLanceMartin Will you guys bring back 1M window for Cowork? It was so amazing while it lasted and now I’m forced to use CC for non-CC tasks

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

@edzitron @BrianSozzi I think it just means “look at headcount post layoffs” against “revenue produced from the headcount it took to get there”

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

Surprisingly, I actually don’t think this was PE’s fault. Philz raised $75M+ in VC money. When you take those investments, VCs get liquidation preferences, so they get their full investment back before anyone else is paid. A $145M sale wasn’t enough for anything to trickle down to common stockholders. The real question is why a coffee shop was raising venture at all, and why employees were allowed to buy common shares in a company whose margins were never going to support the kind of exit needed to make those shares worth anything.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Very anti-worker. They should be made whole.

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

I believe it’s disrespectful to your audience to write to excess. Not only does it burden your reader with the task of figuring out what you’re trying to say, but it also burdens them with the time investment you did not make to achieve that same clarity yourself.

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

@jasontan It takes a lot of (often painful) self-reflection to write something so insightful. Thanks for sharing

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

@mattbaran @urbanistvc Could you share the name? Would love to try it

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

@squeakysleep @stevemushero Single Thread was the best meal of my life, so think it must’ve been an off night? n of 1 though

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

@timourxyz Amazing. Thanks for sharing!!

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

@haleymbryant @0xJoshua 5-year financial models? Do not take money from any angel asking for all that at pre-seed, they have no clue

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

@howardlindzon @robinhood Some thoughts on general challenges for players in this space:

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

https://t.co/zRGzSqpg9u

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

@StanfordGSB @AmitSeru https://t.co/QGhzQRwWFp

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

https://t.co/zRGzSqpg9u

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

So what would it take to scale this? No legislation needed! It's within FHFA's existing authority.

1. FHFA directs Fannie and Freddie to make assumability standard on conventional conforming loans. This is a regulatory directive.

2. FHFA directs Fannie and Freddie to standardize underwriting for assuming buyers, including a clear credit, income, and DTI checklist. Today, every FHA/VA assumption is bespoke.

3. FHFA directs Fannie and Freddie to fix servicer compensation. Servicers currently lose money processing assumptions. Without compensation to make it valuable, they'll slow-walk every transaction regardless of mandate.

4. Fannie and Freddie develop MBS disclosure standards for how assumed loans affect pool risk profiles. When a new borrower assumes a loan, investors need to price the credit risk change. Tough but solvable.

5. @movewithroam and others build the tech infrastructure to process at scale, taking care of digital qualification, title transfer coordination, second lien facilitation for the equity gap, etc.

Steps 1, 2, and 3 can start tomorrow with a single FHFA directive. Step 4 is harder but doable within existing regulatory frameworks. Step 5 is where startups come in.

If we can defeat institutional inertia, we can unlock a proven tool to help solve the housing crisis.

[Pablo Ordóñez Bravo @pablo_builds]

It's well known that the US has a lock-in problem. 80%+ of outstanding mortgages are below current rates and homeowners won't move because they can't take their rate with them.

Most proposals try to fix this with new mortgage products, but countries that have solved have taken a different approach.

In the UK and Canada, mortgages are portable. Borrowers keep their rate when they move. In the US, FHA and VA loans offer a different mechanism: they're assumable, meaning buyers can take over the seller's existing loan. Both solve lock-in and neither require exotic financial engineering.

When rates spiked in 2022, homes with assumable mortgages sold faster and at premiums. The mechanism works but is barely utilized. @movewithroam is disrupting this space quickly and scaling fast.

We don't need new mortgage products. We need Fannie, Freddie, and MBS markets to move beyond non-transferable conventional loans. Fix the secondary market infrastructure and assumable
mortgages can scale overnight.