SPY just did a full gap-and-fade round trip.
Friday close: $738.93
Today's open: $744.91 (+0.81% gap)
Intraday high: $745.53
Close: $739.09 (+0.02%)
The entire gap was given back. High-to-low reversal: -1.30%.
This is an uncommon pattern, so we screened 5,755 SPY sessions for similar setups:
Opening gap: +0.60% to +1.05%
Peak gap: +0.70% to +1.20%
Close within 0.20% of prior close
High-to-low reversal: -1.00% to -1.70%
14 historical matches.
Forward returns from these setups:
Next day: median -0.30%, only 28.6% finished green
5 days: median +1.16%, 71.4% positive
10 days: median +1.71%, 78.6% positive
21 days: median +2.68%, 71.4% positive
Closest analogs: June 11, 2019 and August 28, 2009.
Base rate from history: short-term weakness the following session, then recovery over the next one to three weeks. The tendency has been consistent.
A repost helps this reach more traders who track these regimes.
$SPY $QQQ $IWM
3 of 7 hyperscalers are now burning cash.
Oracle: -$46.4B
Amazon: -$12.5B
Meta: -$820M
12 months ago, all seven were FCF positive.
Apple generates +$141B more than the other six combined.
We tracked every consensus revision over 12 months and measured forward returns after every FCF flip since 2009.
The data splits clean.
If this research is useful to you, a repost helps it reach the traders and investors who could benefit from it. We publish this work to be shared.
Research article below 👇
$GOOGL $META $SPY
#StopIllegalFloridaMaps
Shout out FLORIDA
Partisan map-rigging is
TOTALLY ILLEGAL IN FLORIDA
Don't let DeSantis get away with this
Call Your state legislature
850 717 5000
TWEEPS: Florida voters are being cut out completely as DeSantis pushes new maps designed to lock in power without a public vote. CA and VA trusted their voters. Florida won’t.
I need 1,000 fast RTs and replies using #StopIllegalFloridaMaps
Please and thank you! 🙏💪
BREAKING: In defiance of Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban, voters in Hungary today will vote against Orban’s authoritarianism. Today’s the day Orban’s reign ends. This is being almost entirely ignored by mainstream media. Let’s make it go viral.
We have a choice: autonomy or autocracy? Will we be ruled by an autocrat seeking control of our bodies, life choices and voting data? Or will We The People live freely with dignity and safety in beloved community?
We know our power: #WeSayNoKings!
TWEEPS: We don’t do kings in America. 🇺🇸
We don’t do dictators.
Tomorrow, March 28, show up at a No Kings march and remind Trump who this country belongs to: the people.
I need 1,000 fast RTs and replies using #WeSayNoKings
Please and thank you! 🙏💪
If you’re writing the laws, you shouldn’t be playing the market. This is basic stuff. I have a bill that finally bans members of Congress from trading stocks. No loopholes. No exceptions.
TWEEPS: Democrats have repeatedly asked to fund TSA separately to keep Americans safe while demanding reforms to ICE. trump and Republicans refuse.
Fund TSA. Freeze ICE until it’s fixed.
I need 1,000 fast RTs and replies using #FundDHSFreezeICE
Please and thank you! 🙏💪
Bernie Sanders wants to tax america's 938 billionaires 5% per year and use the $4.4
trillion to send every family a $12,000 check, raise teacher pay, and expand medicare.
Do you agree with Bernie Sanders?
BREAKING: Our account, which is dedicated to holding Trump accountable, while elevating Democratic wins now has over 779,000 followers! It’s more important to build a pro-democracy movement now than ever before. Can you retweet and follow to help us get to 785,000 followers?
FRIENDS: Can we get 1,000 quick replies using the hashtag #FundHealthcareOverICE to highlight that taxpayer dollars should go to healthcare, not terror?
AN OPEN LETTER TO @YouTube AND NEAL MAHON.
Dear @YouTube
I built a media business that broadcasts on your platform.
Our business has exploded and we are growing rapidly.
We have over 1,1m subscribers.
We employ over 100 people globally and we work tirelessly to deliver on our mission of building the most profitable community in the world.
Despite our success,
I am constantly anxious. I don’t sleep at night and I am scared to scale my business.
Why?
It’s not because of any real market or business risk.
It’s because I know that at any moment I could get a Youtube strike, or a series of strikes , that may force me to close the entire business overnight and destroy my work and that of my 100 employees.
Even though our channel hasn’t been affected , many of our partner channels and fellow creators have suffered this fate.
As one of the larger players in the industry, I feel I have a duty and an obligation to take on this fight.
100s of crypto content creators are making the same videos they have made for years, with similar content and style, only now they are getting strikes or being deplatformed.
And the worst parts,
1. They have absolutely no idea what they are doing wrong and so they can’t change.
All they get is a vague message that the video contravened the community Guidelines, of which there are many.
2. The appeal process is flawed, seems to be an AI and unreliable.
Worse yet, is that since Youtube has network effects and a monopoly of sorts there are no real viable alternatives, and so if it happens to you , your business is gone.
One of our partners and member of our group of companies , @FefeDemeny has a channel called the 100x club.
He comes from a humble background!
He is hardworking, ambitious and makes great content.
He built a business from his garage, started from zero and was just getting momentum.
Recently his channel has been under attack by the Youtube algorithm, he received warnings and strikes and despite all the strikes being removed on appeal - today his channel was removed permanently!
The worst part is that he has no idea why.
He has become really conservative with his content, he follows all the known guidelines, he follows all the processes and he still received the strikes.
Now he cannot make content for a week and his ability to keep funding his business is impaired.
He, like many others in this industry, is a business creator with good intentions and great content.
We have made millions of hours of content on your platforms.
We have brought in Billions of dollars of ad revenue.
Despite this our businesses are under threat constantly.
He is not the only one. It’s happening daily to creators in our industry and we have no idea why.
At this point it is clear that there is an issue with your flagging software.
It seems like a setting is too sensitive.
And this issue is costing honest people their businesses and their livelihoods.
We are not asking for any favorable treatment or for you to change any rules,
All we are asking for is clarity.
We want to understand why some channels are randomly getting strikes so we can understand and comply.
We would also appreciate it if you could review your algorithm as it may be set to sensitive or it may be picking up false positives.
As a monopoly of sort you have a duty to ensure that you are fair to all creators, the same creators that build your business.
We would appreciate a real response for a real human, someone with real power and some action that can assist us in maintaining our businesses that we have worked so hard to build.
I write this on behalf of many creators.
I look forward to a response.
If you want to help creators, please share this far and wide. You are helping save people’s businesses.
TWEEPS: Heartless Republicans are letting ACA subsidies expire, and premiums go through the roof for millions. They ignore the crisis, while we pay the price.
Can we get 1,000 RTs and replies with #StopRepublicanPremiumHikes to make it trend?
Please and thank you! 🙏💪
PATRIOTS: Tea Pain’s boilin’ over like a pot of grits! GOP’s turnin’ a blind eye while your healthcare costs skyrocket when subsidies end. They’re leavin’ you high and dry.
Time to raise hell with ol' Tea by usin' this here hashtag, #StopRepublicanPremiumHikes
TWEEPS: trump’s holding 22 million families hostage—premiums exploding Jan 1. Dems are the ONLY wall between you and a massive monthly healthcare bill.
Smash 1,000 RTs & replies with #GOPHealthCareShutdown to get it trending!
Please and thank you!🙏 💪🏽
TWEEPS: trump runs the House, Senate, and White House. This shutdown? All him, refusing to negotiate and letting Americans' healthcare premiums skyrocket.
Can we hit 1,000 RTs and replies with #TrumpHatesOurHealthCare to trend it?
Please and thank you! 🙏💪
Can we get 1,000 quick replies using the hashtag #HandsOffOurSocialSecurity to call out GOP efforts to privatize Social Security on its 90th anniversary today, risking seniors’ stability?
Let’s demand Congress defend this vital program for working families!