The Not So Wise Guy 🇨🇦

Tesla M3 Owner since 2018, Stock Enthusiast, Option Strategist, Lover & Supporter of EV, World Traveler, Believer in women figure is God's greatest creation.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

On the Nvidia situation:

Nvidia's board can still make things right.

It has now been 48 hours since Jensen Huang resigned from his role as CEO, President, and board member of Nvidia.

Meanwhile, a thorough investigation has not been completed, countless critical questions are unanswered, and one of the world's greatest CEOs was forced out before the full facts of the situation were established.

In fact, the US Attorney General, the CIA, the DNI, and members of the House Intelligence Committee have also suggested that the current evidence remains inconclusive regarding whether Jensen Huang was involved in an affair with a Chinese spy.

The reality is that Jensen Huang resigned in the heat of the moment and the board acted based on speculative information.

We believe Nvidia's board, $NVDA, has a duty to shareholders to openly acknowledge that Jensen Huang could return to the company, pending a thorough investigation.

What happens in a CEO's personal life should not automatically dictate his role in a company, particularly if an investigation fails to establish national security misconduct or other wrongdoing that warrants removal.

The right move is to acknowledge that Jensen Huang is innocent until proven guilty.

Nvidia's board must do this now. It is not too late.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

ELON: A PETITION IS UNDERWAY TO REINSTATE JENSEN AND I’M SIGNING IT TOO

$NVDA

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@yunta_tsai A petition is underway to reinstate Jensen and I’m signing it too

[The Not So Wise Guy 🇨🇦 @pandaj03]

Friday Humor

[Notorious T.I.A 🐶🐱🐶🌈🏳️‍🌈🧩 @TiaLoops2]

😭🤣🤣🤣

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Jensen Huang and the Nvidia board just made a massive mistake.

He should not have resigned.

The board should have taken the time to conduct a thorough investigation, consult with shareholders, and carefully evaluate the long-term implications of this decision.

There is no clear replacement for Jensen Huang, and we believe his departure will ultimately be a net negative for Nvidia, $NVDA, and its shareholders.

This will go down as the most costly mistake of the AI Revolution.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Our message to Nvidia's board:

Do not fire Jensen Huang.

There is no clear replacement for Jensen Huang. We are confident that his departure would ultimately be a net negative for Nvidia, its shareholders, and the AI Revolution.

First, take a look at the data. History also suggests that removing a successful CEO will come with a significant cost.

A study of 187 forced CEO departures from S&P 1500 companies found that removing outperforming CEOs resulted in negative long-term stock returns. This case would be no different, in our view.

Jensen Huang is the definition of an outperforming CEO. Nvidia's board must not make a decision in the heat of the moment.

The board should take the time to conduct a thorough investigation and consult with shareholders, with a strong emphasis on the latter.

Quite literally, Nvidia's board should convene a special shareholder meeting and hold an advisory vote on this decision. This is the most consequential CEO controversy in world history. Shareholders deserve a say.

In addition, Nvidia's stock, $NVDA, is now down -35% in 26 trading days, nearly half of which is a result of the recent scandal.

We believe Jensen Huang's potential removal as CEO is now ~80% priced in.

Why take an action with massive downside potential when the market has already priced in much of that risk?

The downside of retaining Huang may be limited, while the potential upside is tremendous.

Lastly, history shows that retaining Jensen Huang could still lead to a favorable outcome. In 2019, Amazon retained Jeff Bezos as CEO after his extramarital affair became public, and the company's stock subsequently surged +108% by 2021.

Personal misconduct should not be ignored, but it must also be distinguished from corporate wrongdoing and weighed against the consequences of removing an executive who is instrumental to the company's success.

We believe Jensen Huang is an irreplaceable part of Nvidia and the AI Revolution more broadly.

Once the dust settles, firing Jensen Huang would prove to be a costly mistake.

It is time to pause and consult your shareholders.

[The Not So Wise Guy 🇨🇦 @pandaj03]

@johnnymaga Can't cure dumb...

[Jonah Lupton @JonahLupton]

Morgan Stanley out with a long note this morning (80 pages)… they still expect hyperscaler capex to hit $1.6 trillion in 2027

[Jukan @jukan05]

Taiwanese semiconductor analyst Andrew Lu’s take on the recent scandal involving Jensen Huang:

Why the US Seized on the Scandal to Draw Its Sword: Three Strategic Objectives

The purpose of this scandal is by no means to expose an affair. It is to force through three critical objectives that had made no headway in the tech war between the US and China because Jensen Huang opposed them.

The first cut: Completely destroy the legitimacy of Jensen Huang's lobbying against sanctions in Washington

Over the past two years, the loudest and most influential business leader in Silicon Valley opposing a total ban on chip exports to China has been Jensen Huang. He has told the White House the same thing all along: "Cede the Chinese market to Huawei, and the only one that ends up dead is the American tech industry."

But the moment US intelligence labels the woman named as Huang's affair partner "a spy working for China's Ministry of State Security who sought to steer the US toward easing its chip controls," every bit of lobbying he has done for looser controls takes on an entirely different political meaning. It becomes a national security matter, raising the possibility that a foreign spy used a secret relationship to exert influence.

Huang can no longer say a single word in defense of the Chinese market before Congress or the White House. If he does, he will be branded as someone who "fell for an intelligence operation and still hasn't come to his senses."

The second cut: Reverse the H200 export approvals for China and sever the link between Chinese shell companies and Southeast Asian smuggling networks

Look at the timing of the two reports.

On November 8, the very day the Jensen Huang scandal broke, The New York Times published an investigation for which its reporters went in person to dozens of Chinese companies that the US Commerce Department had approved to handle Nvidia's H200 chips. New Matrix in Beijing was one of them. According to the report, the registered addresses of companies approved to buy the chips turned out to be empty "ghost offices," and some of the companies had close ties to entities on US sanctions lists and to firms under contract with the Chinese military.

One exposé says Nvidia's CEO was having an affair with a female spy from Megaspeed, the Singapore company that handled the chip smuggling. The other says the Chinese companies Commerce approved to buy H200s are nothing but shell companies trading on behalf of the Chinese military. The aim of these two reports is clear. They are meant to pressure the Trump administration and the Commerce Department into fully revoking or freezing H200 export approvals for China and, going further, to force a sweeping overhaul of the loophole that let chips be diverted through data centers run by third parties in Singapore and elsewhere in Southeast Asia.

The third cut: Put Nvidia on a national security leash through congressional oversight and an independent investigation

As the world's largest company by market cap and the dominant force in AI, Nvidia has until now enjoyed broad autonomy in how it runs its business. But in the wake of this incident, the three congressional committees responsible for China, foreign affairs, and intelligence have begun examining Nvidia's internal security measures directly. They have even pressured Nvidia's board into forming an independent investigation committee to look into the company's own founder and CEO.

In effect, Washington's national security establishment has planted a watchdog right inside Nvidia's board. From now on, the goal is to make sure that everything, down to where each and every one of Nvidia's high performance chips ends up, conforms strictly to US national security strategy. It also means there is no more room for skirting the edge of the rules or releasing chips with specs specially tailored to regulatory thresholds.

Conclusion

"The scandal was a detonator set off right on cue. The real goal was to plug the holes chips were leaking through."

Jensen Huang made the fatal mistake of letting his guard down in his private life and personal relationships. In the end, he fell into a honey trap, the textbook tactic of intelligence warfare, and was compromised. America's national security and intelligence agencies ruthlessly exploited the weakness his private life had exposed. As a result, they solved three thorny problems in a single stroke: Nvidia's lobbying at the White House to ease restrictions on China, the flow of H200 chips into Chinese shell companies, and smuggling routed through Singapore.

The closed congressional hearing set for November 18 will be the decisive turning point at which the US moves in earnest to tighten its sanctions on China's AI compute even further.

[The Not So Wise Guy 🇨🇦 @pandaj03]

#RTXON

[NVIDIA GeForce @NVIDIAGeForce]

We're giving away a Hogwarts Legacy custom wrapped NVIDIA GeForce RTX 5090 to celebrate its official release with DLSS 5 🪄

To enter:
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🟢 Comment #RTXON

Terms and Conditions: https://t.co/45T3R732hf

[Ron Butler @ronmortgageguy]

Today's Canadian Jobs Report: BAD - Yesterday's Canadian Budget: Immigration MUST Increase

We are so Fucked...

Weirdest part: Carney's popularity will remain high

Boomers think: more Immigration, my house price finally starts going up again

Landlords say Thank God

2/

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

A congresswoman just told Elon Musk "See you soon."

So let's compare résumés. Because that's really what this is about.

Elon Musk moved to North America at 17. He built Zip2, then PayPal, then put almost everything he had into two companies every expert said would die: a rocket company and an electric car company. In 2008 both nearly did. He went all in anyway.

Today SpaceX lands orbital boosters and flies them again like airliners, something NASA, Russia, Europe and China considered impossible or uneconomical for 60 years. It launches most of the mass sent to orbit by all of humanity combined. It's the reason America stopped renting seats on Russian rockets to reach its own space station. Starlink brings internet to Ukrainian trenches, Amazon villages and disaster zones. Tesla forced every carmaker on Earth to go electric. Neuralink is letting paralyzed people control computers with their minds.

And to the "billionaires don't pay their fair share" crowd: in 2021 he paid over $11 billion in taxes. Widely reported as the largest individual tax bill in American history. One man. One year.

His stated goal is to make life multiplanetary so that consciousness doesn't die on a single rock. You can think that's crazy. He has delivered on enough "crazy" that betting against him has become a bad habit.

Now Yassamin Ansari.

Stanford, international relations. Intern for Nancy Pelosi. Climate advisor at the UN. Phoenix City Council. Won her congressional primary by 39 votes. A whole career spent inside institutions that run on other people's money. Never built a product. Never had a customer. Never faced a market.

The day after her party won Congress, what's her top priority for day one? Cheaper housing? Energy? Competing with China?

No. Pause advanced AI. Ban "superintelligence."

The bill she backs freezes any model trained above 10^25 operations until a brand-new cabinet-level Department of AI gets staffed and writes its rules. Violators face up to 20 years in prison.
Let that sink in. The industry that, by one Oxford Economics estimate, drives about a third of recent US growth, frozen by people who have never trained a model, while waiting for a federal agency that doesn't exist yet. Beijing couldn't have written it better.

And yes, Elon has warned about AI risk for a decade. That's exactly the point. His answer to risk was to build, compete and put better systems in the arena. Hers is a committee, a freeze and prison terms. One looks at a hard problem and builds. The other looks at a hard problem and asks for a permit to stop everyone else.

Then the cherry on top: her reply to the man who built the rockets is "See you soon." Coming from someone whose only real power is the ability to stop others from building.

This is the real fault line of our time. Not left vs right. Builders vs administrators of envy. A system that selects people who have never created anything and gives them authority over the people who create everything. A political class that turns resentment into legislation and calls it "safety."

I'm French. I've watched this movie. Europe wrote the world's most ambitious AI rulebook. Now count how many of the world's top AI models are European.

I genuinely hope humanity grows out of this model. A civilization where its most mediocre managers summon its most extraordinary builders with a "see you soon" is a civilization working against itself.

"Brave New World" is right. Except the dystopia isn't the machine. It's the committee.

[CK Capital @CKCapitalxx]

Watching people sell their AI stocks at the lowest multiples in years to buy consumer stocks at all time highs.

Buy high, sell low, but make it a rotation.

[The Not So Wise Guy 🇨🇦 @pandaj03]

@unusual_whales No shit. They had everything going for them until they started this war.

[The Not So Wise Guy 🇨🇦 @pandaj03]

@MarvellTech @Lumentum I can see lawsuits incoming.

[Jermaine Wilson | CP24/CTV News @Jerrmainewilson]

#NEW: Video provided to CP24 shows a Toronto father using a magnet to identify a pin concealed inside a piece of Halloween candy collected by his children.

He discovered a total of five affected products.

Full story: https://t.co/xH9uFYZfLI

[David J Harris Jr @DavidJHarrisJr]

🚨BREAKING: A Canadian lawmaker just told residents facing home invasions that if criminals want to steal from them, they should simply let it happen.

Manitoba NDP MLA Billie Cross said during a debate that “if they want to steal, let them steal” because “that’s why we have insurance.” She argued that property is not worth risking a life over and that people should not put themselves in danger to stop a thief.

The advice is absurd on its face. Once someone has already broken into your home, you have no way of knowing whether they only want your TV or whether they plan to harm your family. Insurance can replace a stolen item. It cannot replace a human life or undo the trauma of an invasion.

Telling citizens to stand down and hope for the best while criminals walk through their doors is not leadership. It is surrender.

[Viva Frei @thevivafrei]

This is BEYOND outrageous!

The suspect who has been identified in the home invasion and shooting in Toronto Canada was apparently SHOT in the altercation by one of the other suspects.

He showed up at the hospital WITH A GUNSHOT WOUND TO THE SHOULDER.

And even worse: THE POLICE SHOWED UP AND ENCOUNTERED HIM AT THE HOSPITAL.

He was somehow DISCHARGED and is now on the run.

Listen to this answer from the queen of DEI herself, Kristy Smith.

If this doesn’t get your blood boiling, nothing will.

How are Toronto police not guilty of aiding and abetting a fugitive?

Kristy Smith also needs to be FIRED.

This is an absolute outrage.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS ARE GETTING REALLY CHEAP RIGHT NOW

PEG < 1 usually means growth may be mispriced
PEG > 2 starts to push into the danger zone

Here’s how they stack up:
• $ARM ~1.7x
• $ANET ~1.4x
• $ALAB ~1.2x
• $KLAC ~0.9x
• $LRCX ~0.7x
• $ASML ~0.7x
• $INTC ~0.7x
• $AMAT ~0.6x
• $TSM ~0.6x
• $MRVL ~0.5x
• $AMD ~0.5x
• $LITE ~0.5x
• $COHR ~0.5x
• $NVDA ~0.4x
• $CRDO ~0.3x
• $ON ~0.3x
• $AVGO ~0.3x
• $SNDK ~0.2x
• $MU ~0.1x
• $SKHY ~0.1x
• $AAOI ~0.1x

[Options selling with Christian @optionscjp]

In case you're confused about what's going on with Elon Musk tanking the neoclouds, here's the timeline of everything that's happened

> Oct 13: Chamath posts a chart of $CRWV bonds yielding 15%. Musk replies one word. "Yikes"

> Oct 14: $CRWV falls 15.5% in one day. $NBIS -10%, $IREN -10%. Gartner warns the same day that 80% of neoclouds could disappear by 2030

> Oct 15: $CRWV credit default swaps hit a RECORD 1,100+ bps. The market is pricing a 60%+ chance they default within 5 years. Their 2031 bonds yield 16%

> Oct 16: the bonds fall under 80 cents. Distressed. $CRWV down another 12%. The stock lost about 25% that week

> Oct 19: Goldman upgrades $CRWV to Buy anyway. Stock does nothing

> Oct 22: $NBIS raises $3.5B from Citi. It matures in ONE year. That's the kind of money still available to these guys

> Oct 25: a clip of $NBIS's CEO from GTC Berlin goes around X. He admits debt markets and asset-backed financing have "temporarily dried up"

> Oct 25: Musk goes in. "200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation." Says debt markets are shut for anyone without real revenue outside AI data centers. Says SpaceX just closed $40B of debt to buy GPUs because they have Starlink and launch revenue

> Someone asks if he's tanking them so he can buy one cheap. Musk: "SpaceX is not buying any neoclouds. Pointless"

> Sunday night: $CRWV and $NBIS down another 2.3% overnight. $IREN -2%

$CRWV is down 38% in a month. $NBIS is down 33%

Also worth noting - SpaceX sells AI compute too. Anthropic's deals with SpaceXAI could be worth up to $84.5B through 2029. Musk is a competitor talking about his competition and might just be trying to starve his competitors with x