Key variable here would be cost/performance/power and market price/performance/power. Wonder if @SemiAnalysis_ have something on this @dylan522p@fabknowledge
b. Also, new generations do not mean old chips do not have value. Most DC capacity is still using CPU cloud servers, that have a regular refresh cycle. Using old chips for traditional cloud workloads or inference would still be economical.
If the AI capex fails to achieve AGI but succeeds in directing monopoly cashflows towards a national power infrastructure buildout, then it would still be a very pro-social and pro-growth outcome in the long term.
@jonwu_ More like, the rich grandma has a Chinese sugar daddy who happens to be your mortal enemy and who may stop providing her with an unlimited allowance.
That’s ok for now as she’s still got plenty of suitors. But she’s starting to get wrinkles and may not be so hot much longer
@LynAldenContact Isn't this divergence a byproduct of the return on assets being greater than the GDP growth rate ( r>g as @PikettyLeMonde puts it)?
Would need technical efficiency to drastically overcome the resource constraint to get out of this Mathusian-like trap imo