Parth

I share long-form reads that mirror my thoughts. If you value depth, you’re in the right place.

[Parth @parth104284]

https://t.co/lTJrgAVWdl

[Hemant Mohapatra @MohapatraHemant]

The curse of discipline is that every day looks the same. The curse of indiscipline is that every year does.

[Harsh Gupta Madhusudan @harshmadhusudan]

It feels like we are reaching a denouement.

Chinese open AI models keep on surprising on the upside based on their decades of industrial policy (TikTok is investing in AI, because Bytedance had a captive market without Insta). So, Open AI (note the caps) is cutting prices and delaying its IPO. Anthropic, besides one quarter of creative accounting that too non-GAAP, is nowhere near profits and won’t be for another couple of years at least. SpaceX has halved from its peak and is below its listing price (still insanely expensive along with Tesla). I had called it the RPower moment.

Meanwhile America wants the empire’s perks and hates its responsibilities. This has most directly come to head in Iran. It’s a war it cannot win and cannot lose. But even fighting from the air has real impact on the seas, and crude is that impact. Inflation remains high in America and Warsh, who had probably the worst presser in FOMC history, cannot stall any longer. The long end is rebelling at 5.3% as we speak.

Simultaneously, the US boom led to 15 year pattern of risk capital rushing in accelerating even as others upped the hedges last 18 months. To defend their own currencies against dollar, risk free demand in America was already falling and because US itself has signalled it cannot be consumer of last resort anymore and ideally wants to export more while having the sanctions power of greenback intact. Again square and circle. Power sans responsibility.

Hence the US Treasury has just bought Yen, even as Japan itself continues intervention and apparently Korea has joined in too. Despite Kospi having a terrible month, the Won had an excellent month. CNY has reached 6.7 from 7.4 too. India has helped stabilise the rupee too. The entire Asian FX complex is cheap, some more some less, but all of them including the ASEAN ones.

With the dollar cycle fall started and DC itself in part wanting it, long end of the yield at 2007 levels but US sovereign debt much higher, and the bulk of US growth coming from a sector whose economics is unproven and profits in the future (even as the tech is genuinely great, especially at subsidised costs), the entire supply chain is at mark down risk through the whiplash effect. The customer and enterprise facing true ARR is just a tad above 100B. The capex is getting closer to an order of magnitude higher. Tech obsolescence risk and consequent depreciation risk remains.

In India, the clear negative correlation with the AI narrative for listed IT services and the broader market and the rupee is also clear. India has not yet played its digital industrial policy trump card like China did two decades ago. If it comes down to it, it will be used.

I see no way significantly and relatively up for the US over the next decade. It is almost half of global market cap and two thirds of indices, with 4% of the population. The great turn has started last year.

[Parth @parth104284]

@joybhattacharj @leadkindlylight I don’t know anyone has noticed but bursting or lighting firecrackers on the ground heavily disrupts the microclimate required for dew formation, preventing dew from gathering on the ground. That has one way or another worked in the favour of RCB.

[Siddhartha Saxena @siddsax]

Anthropic onboarding day: Michael Scott introducing Karpathy like he just signed Wemby in free agency.

[Brian Willott Farms @BrianWillott]

They should change the name to "Strait of Schrödinger". It's both open and closed at the same time.

[Parth @parth104284]

Has Mythos just broken the deal that kept the internet safe? - Martin Alderson https://t.co/Vsthnp6HsS

[Parth @parth104284]

@nateparrott How about swipe left for ai summaries & right swipe for full articles?

[Zhikai Zhang @Zhikai273]

🎾Introducing LATENT: Learning Athletic Humanoid Tennis Skills from Imperfect Human Motion Data

Dynamic movements, agile whole-body coordination, and rapid reactions. A step toward athletic humanoid sports skills.

Project: https://t.co/MFy2NIOsrn
Code: https://t.co/A7B5H8PIBh

[Sahil @sahill_og]

Tony stark just had unlimited API tokens

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

These daily "Claude crashes" will drag Buffett out of retirement. Finally value in the market.

[Nikunj Kothari @nikunj]

https://t.co/3mnuYn7jfP

[Trendulkar @Trendulkar]

IT stocks are tumbling. 70 hours per week might not be enough. AI is working 24X7

[Sarvam @SarvamAI]

The all-new Sarvam is here.
Designed for all of India.

https://t.co/O78H03Jcki

[Deepak Shenoy @deepakshenoy]

This is the start of my thread on #Budget2026. Please be aware that I'm prone to dad jokes, meandering segues and in general, commentary that might not enhance your life in any meaningful way whatsoever.

I've been doing this a while now, so if you're familiar, welcome back!

[Xavier Uncle @xavierunclelite]

Bought a Silver ETF yesterday.

It became Silver WTF today.

[Trendulkar @Trendulkar]

Congrats to retail investors for funding Gurgaon apartments for Lenskart ESOP holders.

[FFmpeg @FFmpeg]

We would like to thank @Nithin0dha for the $100k donation to FFmpeg (pending)!

While this does not solve the funding problems behind FFmpeg and Open Source in general, it's a step forward to a sustainable future for Open Source Software.

[Dwarkesh Patel @dwarkesh_sp]

The @karpathy interview

0:00:00 – AGI is still a decade away
0:30:33 – LLM cognitive deficits
0:40:53 – RL is terrible
0:50:26 – How do humans learn?
1:07:13 – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth
1:18:24 – ASI
1:33:38 – Evolution of intelligence & culture
1:43:43 - Why self driving took so long
1:57:08 - Future of education

Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, etc. Enjoy!