Ayush Varma

Navigating markets by day, coding ethical AI by night | CS student | Words @ Substack & Medium

[Ayush Varma @patchgalactic]

Full breakdown with the complete portfolio table, stock by stock commentary, and the tax harvesting math:

Link: https://t.co/xH7nEeRUYT

Building in public. One month at a time.

#IndianStockMarket #StockMarketIndia #Investing #Nifty #PortfolioUpdate #TaxHarvesting

[Ayush Varma @patchgalactic]

Spain playing absolute poor football today makes me remind the 2018 KO loss on penalties.
Absolute master class for Cape Verde, this should be considered a win for them!
What a grand entry to the tournament ⚽
#WORLDCUP #SPAIN #FIFA

[Ayush Varma @patchgalactic]

Stock is down ~20% from highs. I added at ₹445.

Not because the near-term is clean. Because the market is pricing a short-term headwind like a structural break.

Full thesis on the link below.
https://t.co/AsLk8AOmln

#SkyGold #Gold

[Ayush Varma @patchgalactic]

Everyone knows #Tanishq, #Kalyan, #CaratLane.

Nobody talks about the company making their jewelry.

I've held Sky Gold since 2024. Here's why I just bought more.
#Skygold #IndianEquity

[Ayush Varma @patchgalactic]

Dubai office opened November 2025. Exports doubled to ₹150 cr in one quarter.

Promoters moving to dividend-only compensation from FY27. Big 4 auditor coming in.

540,000 sq ft integrated jewelry park under construction.

This is management building, not talking.
#SkyGold

[Ayush Varma @patchgalactic]

@kirubaakaran Hi @kirubaakaran , I really like this.
It would be great if you could add a feature of rolling returns since that gives much better idea.

[Ayush Varma @patchgalactic]

I wrote about exactly this last week.

DPD buckets, what they reveal, and how to read MFI stress before GNPA moves.

Four companies: #CreditAccessGrameen, #FusionFinance, #SpandanaSphoorty, and #ArmanFinancial

The full breakdown:
https://t.co/KRbB0ouKmg

[Ayush Varma @patchgalactic]

Most MFI investors watch GNPA.
That's the wrong number.
By the time GNPA turns bad, the damage is already 2-3 quarters old.
The number that actually matters: DPD buckets.
Thread on what they are, and what they revealed about 4 Indian MFIs in FY25.
#Microfinance #Investing

[Ayush Varma @patchgalactic]

The #MFI sector is buzzing today.

CreditAccess Grameen up 10%.
Spandana Sphoorty up 7.9%.

Both outperforming a market that is down 0.7% today.
The recovery that the DPD bucket data was signaling is now showing up in price.
#Microfinance #NBFC #IndianStockMarket

[Ayush Varma @patchgalactic]

@EquityInsightss How do you plan to play this, actively picking the stocks or passively via ETFs?
I couldn't find anything scrip which tracks the sector.
Would love your thoughts on this!

[Ayush Varma @patchgalactic]

@iamsutanudas How do you plan on playing this microfinance cycle? Would that be via actively picking stocks or passively via ETFs?

[Ayush Varma @patchgalactic]

Full breakdown with all four companies, the mechanics, and what the data was signaling in real time.

Read below:
https://t.co/jOkzGA7msz

#Microfinance #IndianStockMarket #NBFC #MFI

[Ayush Varma @patchgalactic]

Most MFI investors watch GNPA.
That's the wrong number.
By the time GNPA turns bad, the damage is already 2-3 quarters old.
The number that actually matters: DPD buckets.
Thread on what they are, and what they revealed about 4 Indian MFIs in FY25.
#Microfinance #Investing

[Ayush Varma @patchgalactic]

The takeaway is simple.

GNPA is a verdict. DPD buckets are the trial.

Watch X-bucket collection efficiency in monthly business updates. Watch flow rates across early buckets. Watch PAR 30+ versus PAR 90+.

These tell you where the book will be in six months.
#Investing