The last 10-days have been unlike any 10-day period in the market since 1950.
First, the S&P 500 is up 9.8% in 10-days, which is in the 99.7th percentile of all 10 day returns.
SILICON VALLEY BANK
Some takeaways and thoughts regarding the SVB situation on a Friday afternoon before logging off for the weekend.
First, what happened?
1/
Twitter has broken just about every piece of this FTX story using blockchain analytics, while NYT is writing puff pieces on a criminal.
Feels like a turning point for citizen journalism and loss of trust in MSM.
1/15: Ever looked at an order book and been mesmerised by how it moves? Just me? A short thread about how displaying order books in a different way gives you a glance at what lies beneath.
1/ The illusion of alpha
Arguably the biggest way I've seen good traders burn out is the never ending search for a unique edge in the market
But what if I told you that 95% of the time, alpha is an illusion. And furthermore, most traders look for it in the wrong places
wHaT bEaR mArkEt
This thread is an assortment of mental models and frameworks I've developed and relied on throughout the span of my trading career, with some personal anecdotes mixed in.
I will continue to update this thread as I identify new trading maxims w/ time.
It didn’t take me long in the crypto world to realize that it’s an ecosystem being fueled by the “House Money Effect”.
Having spent countless hours in the world of high stakes poker I recognized it instantly and now can’t stop seeing it everywhere I look. A short 🧵👇
i think the most important q you can ask yourself is how should these L1s / L0s should be valued against one another, if you can figure out what the market is mispricing here consistently you'll make a lot of $$$
1/14
FDV is a dumb stat // Why I have no issue with 10B $SRM.
Comparing FDV of every asset is a really bad habit this industry has picked up.
Different tokenomics include unlock schedules, burns, staking, and asset loss play into the price at the point of full dilution.
#Bitcoin is now officially recognized as legal tender throughout the country of El Salvador, marking a world first.
@sebsinclair1989 reports.
https://t.co/g1719dY6Gh
If you ever feel like you’re not early, just take a look at the total number of users who have ever interacted with different DeFi protocols…
$UNI - 2.4M
$COMP - 326K
$SUSHI - 201K
$BAL - 178K
$AAVE - 67K
$MKR - 73K
$CRV - 43K
$YFI - 31K
$SNX - 18K
& you’ll feel a lot better
On things that get cheaper and things that get more expensive...
Blue: Free market forces
Red: Subject to government regulatory intervention
Overall Inflation is 54.6% -> i.e. CPI is a BS measure of inflation, and it's what economists use to determine monetary policy.