PatBir

Lets change the world to the positive, crypto is one part of the answer!

[Troll Football NP🇳🇵 @FootballTrollNP]

Argentina vs Switzerland be like😂🔥

[PatBir @PatrBir]

@benjamincowen Final stage starting

[PatBir @PatrBir]

@benjamincowen You are an idiot .. still like your content. Hope you feel better now 🤣

[ionicXBT @theionicXBT]

I’m sorry

I know this correction has been brutal.

But let me be honest,

I’m not here to cry.

I’m here to catch bottoms.

Because that’s where REAL MONEY is made.

Not by chasing green candles.

But by buying fear.

So how do I know when a real bottom is in?

I don’t guess.

I use data.

One of my favourite tools:

MVRV Z-Score.

It shows when #Bitcoin is trading far below its fair value.

The secret is:

Green zone = Undervalued

Panic everywhere and Weak hands flushed

It works every cycle:

2015 → Green → Bottom
2018 → Green → Bottom
2022 → Green → Bottom

And now we are close.

So when it’s the #crypto bottom,

I’ll call it this time,

With no hesitation.

Because it’s so simple.

You can track it yourself.

Like this tweet if you are with me.

[PatBir @PatrBir]

@benjamincowen You are one of the rare good guys, keep going Ben

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Every cycle is the same.

Yes, crypto could bounce. And honestly, it would be great for sentiment if it could. But even if it does, it would most likely result in a macro lower high.

I don't try and time those bounces. I have tried before with mixed levels of success. Sometimes it works, other times I got rekt.

When BTC drops below the 50W moving average, it then goes to the 100W moving average, spends a little time there, then goes to the 200W moving average.

Every cycle is eventually the same.

BTC topped when it always does (Q4 of the post-halving year), and so many have spent so many hours trying to convince you that it has not.

And BTC entered into a bear market, and so many have tried to get you to believe that alt season is "just around the corner" because it always happens after BTC tops. What they fail to account for is social interest. After the 2019 top there was also no rotation into altcoins, which also occurred just before QT ended.

I track the social interest in the asset class, and it has been trending down since 2021. There is no one new here for people to sell their altcoins to.

Alt seasons historically occur *after* social interest has been trending up for a year, not after it has been trending down for 5 years.

Have an actual plan on navigating this brutal asset class. Because if the altcoins you hold drop another 50%-80% from here, not a single influencer who promoted them will express an ounce of regret for it. And you will simply be living with the consequences.

I get a lot of hate for saying the truth, but an inconvenient truth is better than a lie.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Don’t Stop ₿elievin’

[Quinten @QuintenFrancois]

Covid crash: $1.2B in liquidations

FTX crash: $1.6B in liquidations

Today: $19.31B in liquidations

You wished you bought during the COVID crash.
This is your COVID crash.

[PatBir @PatrBir]

@spectatorindex

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

For years people said "Why hold BTC when ALTs outperform BTC"

And BTC.D went from 38% to 66%.

Now those same people are saying "Why hold ETH when ALTs will outperform"

You cannot help those that don't want to be helped.

[World of Engineering @engineers_feed]

Video from 1937 demonstrating how a differential works

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

My base case for those who don't get the nuanced view:

BTC.D rejected at 0.786 Fib Level (66%) just like it was rejected at 0.618 Fib level (60%) last year.

ALT/BTC is up because ETH/BTC is up
But ALT/ETH is bleeding
So ETH is better than ALTs.
Remember ALT/BTC pairs have found a local low every June from 2022-2025).

ALT/BTC rally will likely end by late August at the latest
BTC.D rally in Sep-Oct

ETH/BTC higher low in Sep/Oct
ALT/BTC pairs lower low in Sep/Oct (could be beginning of Nov).

Hard to know if the next rally by BTC.D leads to a higher high even if ALT/BTC pairs put in a lower low (as it depends on how high the next higher low is for ETH/BTC).

Look at what ALT/BTC pairs did from July-August of 2017 and see how they still dropped to 0.25 by late October.

Look at how while ALT/BTC pairs are up, ALT/ETH pairs are down 40% since ETH "went home."

I could be wrong about any one of these views, but these are my views.

When something I posted above is inevitably wrong, you are welcome to post this receipt and laugh.

Also, I'm not talking about your alt.

[World of Engineering @engineers_feed]

Chinese students built a two-stage rocket from soda bottles and water pressure and it even featured real stage separation.

[PatBir @PatrBir]

@FurkanCCTV @FurkanCCTV kann das Video nicht finden ... ist er schon online?

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Historically, the #BTC market cycle top is in when the 200W SMA crosses the prior ATH.

Something to keep in mind...

[PatBir @PatrBir]

@elonmusk Amazing … should be stopped

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

I couldn’t agree more! 🇺🇸🇺🇸

[Out of Context Human Race @NoContextHumans]

Ladies and gentleman.

The English language.

[PatBir @PatrBir]

@benjamincowen So unexpected

[PatBir @PatrBir]

@elonmusk @grok make a fact check