ANZ data: Spending grew 2.4% y/y for the week to 13 Sep & retail was up 2.5% y/y. Victoria is bringing down the average. The early Sep spike reflects the change in dates between Father’s Day in 2019 (1 Sep) and 2020 (6 Sep). @AdelaideTimbrel#ausbiz#ausretail@DavidPlank12
Stockpiling in March & the lockdown-stimulus gap in April were behind Australia's retail decline in Q2 (3.4% q/q). This was the biggest fall since GST began. The #stateofdisaster weakens the chance of a substantial rebound in Q3. @DavidPlank12 @Adelaide__T #ausbiz#ausretail
The Melbourne lockdown will, we think, weaken the bounce in Q3 #GDP by as much as 1.5-2ppt. #Unemployment will be higher too, ending Q3 at 7.7%. This reflects both direct and regional/national effects. #ausecon#auspol@felicity_emmett @cfbirch
Easing #lockdown restrictions in Victoria closed its spending gap with other states. Social spending in Vic benefited the most from the change (#dining spend was -23% y/y for week to 12 June vs -40% y/y for week to 31 May). @DavidPlank12 @Adelaide__T #ausretail#ausecon#ausbiz
As a human, I am very happy to hear this. Models don’t do regime change. Our weird behavior during the pandemic is messing with AI models – MIT Technology Review https://t.co/jPYIpOdl3n
ANZ-observed retail spend in Vic is faring far worse than other states, reflecting very strict restrictions and the state’s exposure to tourism. Spending is growing the strongest in NSW and WA. ANZ-observed #retail spending is up nationally 15.3%. #victoria#covid19australia
ANZ-observed #retail spending is up 15.3% y/y for the week to 15 May. But the excitement of freer movement (esp in WA, Qld and NSW) seems to be already wavering. We expect spending - particularly non-essential spending - to weaken as the excitement wears off. #covid19australia
ANZ Australian Job Ads halved in April. This was almost five times the previous record monthly fall of 11.3% in January 2009, during the GFC. #ausecon#employment#auspol @cfbirch
The gaps left by social categories (dining out, takeaway and fashion) are now big enough to offset growth in #lockdown prep categories. Total ANZ-observed retail spending is flat y/y for the week ending 3 Apr. @Adelaide__T @DavidPlank12#covid19au#panicbuying#socialdistancing
@toddsampsonOz@scott_mautz@Inc Often the simplest theories are those based on common sense. For this to work you need to invest in yourself and commit to having the hard discussions we often avoid. Thanks for sharing @toddsampsonOz