Paul M Chateauneuf

GC for MDJ Construction in Rhode Island

[Paul M Chateauneuf @paulychat]

@rektmando @Pledditor Bro he looks like my dad, I’m 40 years old

[Paul M Chateauneuf @paulychat]

@Pledditor lol bear markets are brutal

[Paul M Chateauneuf @paulychat]

@GreenBnz Feeling a “bang” coming tonight

[puremassacre @GreenBnz]

https://t.co/R9NXDTYA2n

[Paul M Chateauneuf @paulychat]

Tonights NBA games are looking like a snack.. firing prop bets off like

[Paul M Chateauneuf @paulychat]

@NextLevelBets_ This is the one

[Paul M Chateauneuf @paulychat]

@TheNFLDrop @RapSheek

[Paul M Chateauneuf @paulychat]

@MySportsUpdate This is wild. Keon may be officially on the roster, but unofficially he’s traded or being cut. No way does an owner or GM come out and say some shit like this and that player remain on the team lol

[Paul M Chateauneuf @paulychat]

@MrAndyNgo ANOTHER protest…?

It’s becoming so cringe 😬

[Paul M Chateauneuf @paulychat]

@GreenBnz need a BANGGG

[Paul M Chateauneuf @paulychat]

Prop god

[puremassacre @GreenBnz]

NFL MNF GAME DATA 🏈

Commanders v Chiefs

WAS allows 51% & 36% more yards/YAC above average to Slot WR.. allow more YAC to all than most of the league.

KC allows 20-30% yards below average through the air. But do allow some YAC to Inline and in Play-Action.

Props & Bets 👇

[Paul M Chateauneuf @paulychat]

@espn The Jags money line had me stressing.. I put so much money on it

[puremassacre @GreenBnz]

NFL COVERAGE DATA

The Jaguars run a heavy zone scheme 78%, Cover 3 & 6. Against this coverage the Chiefs have been looking to Marquise Brown, 3 TGT/G and 31% 1st Read. In 2024, Mahomes looked to Rice and Kelce.

The Chiefs mix up their coverages more, but run 2-high 68%, opening up the middle of the field. Brian Thomas is obviously WR1, but in 2024 they looked to Evan Engram vs these coverages.

Brian Thomas could have huge game today since he has dominated target share on play-action.

Mahomes is a smart QB, he will take what the defense gives him. The Jags heavy zone scheme with Cover 4 & 6 prevents deep throws but allows short passes. Kelce and Brown receive 12 TGT/G, which is more than the next 4 players combined.

I am looking at Thomas, Etienne, and Kelce props. And I like the Jags to win this game outright. Maybe sprinkle in some Travis Hunter props.

Bets:

Thomas Yards - Over
Kelce Receptions - Over
Jaguars Money Line

[Paul M Chateauneuf @paulychat]

@espn Unreal

[Paul M Chateauneuf @paulychat]

@RealSkipBayless Yessirrrrr

[Paul M Chateauneuf @paulychat]

@espn Pacers are dead

[puremassacre @GreenBnz]

MLB CHEAT SHEETS ⚾️

I am posting cheat sheets for EVERY game today in this thread!

🧵(1/15)

Reds vs Cubs - 2:20pm

[Paul M Chateauneuf @paulychat]

@JacobKinge If it’s free, it costs you your personal data

[puremassacre @GreenBnz]

Why My Data Model Is So Accurate Predicting NBA Player Props 📊

NBA teams aren't just improvising like a casual pickup game at the YMCA. While we don’t often hear or see explicit play-calling like in the NFL, teams run structured plays on nearly every possession.

The number of set plays a player is involved in during a game can vary significantly based on the defensive matchup, which directly impacts their performance.

So I developed a data model to analyze NBA play-by-play data, focusing on the frequency of specific play actions for each player and how effectively defenses perform against these actions.

This approach provides a much more accurate basis for predicting player prop outcomes compared to traditional metrics like "defense vs. position" or recent game performance trends.

[puremassacre @GreenBnz]

NBA BETS 🏀 RECAP

+17.5 Units (5-0)

BRING OUT THE BROOMS!!!
🧹🧹🧹🧹🧹

✅ 6.5u - Malik Beasley 15.5+ PTS
✅ 2.5u - Mark Williams 16.5+ PTS
✅ 2.0u - Cade Cunningham 26.5+ PTS
✅ 3.0u - Darius Garland 2.5+ Threes
✅ 3.5u - DeMar DeRozan 21.5+ PTS

5-0 on player props tonight!!!