Below is a brief description of Prigozhin's mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome. We, as observers, initially missed important details due to the scarcity of information and lack of time for in-depth analysis. Here's the perspective that currently seems most plausible:
1️⃣ Prigozhin's rebellion wasn't a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him. To top it off, Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries.
2️⃣ Prigozhin's objective was to draw Putin's attention and to impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities - a defined role, security, and funding. These weren't demands for a governmental overthrow; they were a desperate bid to save the enterprise, hoping that Prigozhin's merits in taking Bakhmut (that's why he needed it!) would be taken into account and the concerns would catch Putin's serious attention. Now it appears that these merits helped Prigozhin to get out of this crisis alive, but without a political future in Russia (at least while Putin is in power).
3️⃣ Prigozhin was caught off-guard by Putin's reaction and found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary. He also wasn't prepared for the fact that Wagner was about to reach Moscow where his only option remained - to "take the Kremlin" - an action that would inevitably result in him and his fighters being eradicated.
4️⃣ Those in the elites who were able reached out to Prigozhin with offers to surrender. This likely added to his sense of impending doom. However, I don't believe any high-level negotiations took place. Lukashenko presented Prigozhin with a Putin-endorsed offer to retreat on the condition that Prigozhin would leave Russia and Wagner would be dissolved.
5️⃣ I don't think Prigozhin was in a position to make demands (such as the resignation of Shoigu or Gerasimov - something many observers expect today. If that happens, it will be due to another reason.) After Putin's address in the morning of June 24th, Prigozhin's primary concern was to find an off-ramp. The situation would have led to inevitable death in merely a few hours. It is possible that Putin has promised him safety on the condition that Prigozhin remains quietly in Belarus.
I stand by my previous assertion that Putin and the state have been dealt a severe blow (which will have significant repercussions for the regime). However, I want to emphasize that image has always been a secondary concern for Putin. Setting optics aside, Putin objectively resolved the Wagner and Prigozhin problem by dissolving the former and expelling the latter. The situation would have been far worse if it had culminated in a bloody mess in the outskirts of Moscow.
And no, Putin doesn't need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He's now certainly convinced of that.
I will disclose many more details in my bulletin to be issued tomorrow evening.
0/10 The Nova Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine, controlled by Russia, has been destroyed. This brings humanitarian, ecological, and economic disaster to Ukrainians. Here are some guidelines for writing about this catastrophe.
Nieuwsuur gisteravond. Is dit een grap? Een complottheorie van Tucker Carlson en talkshows op de Russische staatstelevisie tegenover de verklaring van de Oekraïense autoriteiten zetten? Ik ben sprakeloos.
@MEGroenstege Even stuk lezen, gaat niet zozeer over de expositie maar over het feit dat iemand met deze dochter als artiest theorie komt, met chronologie etc. En verder genegeerd wordt (wellicht door de te grote belangen). Kijk bijv dat girl with a lute.. is dat briljant?
"And if he is right, the Rijksmuseum exhibition, no matter what else it may be, constitutes the greatest Maria Vermeer show ever, with six of her presumed canvases gathered in one place for the first time since 1675." https://t.co/9PChosphJR
Leiden
Den Haag
Rozenburg
Maassluis
Den Haag
Berkel en Rodenrijs
Jakarta
Nairobi
Parijs
Den Haag
Rijswijk
Paramaribo
St. Petersburg
Yangon
Beijing
Den Haag