Pepijn Bergsen

Europe macro @medleyadvisors. Previously @ChathamHouse, @TheEIU & @DutchMFA.

[Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen]

Ireland having a normal one again in the first quarter, dragging the eurozone economy into a 0.2% contraction. Important to note that excluding this tax evasion scheme with a small army the eurozone actually grew by 0.3%

[Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen]

I'm salty, you say? No idea where you get that idea from.

[Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen]

Unfortunately there was no way for Europe to see this coming. Half a decade ago nobody in Europe dared make these arguments. All the very serious analysts would laugh at them because free trade is good and ackchyually the US is really bad.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

EUROPEAN COMMISSION REPORT SAYS EU-CHINA TRADE AND INVESTMENT TIES ARE UNSUSTAINABLE.

[Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen]

@SanderTordoir A week? I’m pretty sure it’s not legal in Europe to take such a short break

[Gabor Scheiring @gscheiring]

New podcast out on @24_2news with @pbergsen and Tim G. Jones on Hungary's morning after. We discuss what the post-Orbán transition tells us about Europe's #FarRight landscape, and why professional-class enthusiasm about the death of #illiberalism is running ahead of structural reality.

https://t.co/LgcdLcDm5g

#illiberalism #FarRight #Hungary #Europe @GUQatar

[Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen]

@HansWerner85760 I meant healthier than the figures including Ireland, which suggest a growth slowdown (clearly visible in the eurostat chart in the quoted tweet). But agree the EU can do (slightly) better

[Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen]

Eurostat should really start publishing an ex-Ireland number for GDP releases. Without those ridiculously distorted figures the growth trend in the eurozone has been a lot healthier in recent quarters

[EU_Eurostat @EU_Eurostat]

Euro area #GDP up by 0.1% in Q1 2026, +0.8% compared with Q1 2025: preliminary flash estimate from #Eurostat https://t.co/pBOAGDZpbl

[Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen]

@CrytonFred In some cases it is real, in many cases it doesn't really capture what's actually happening and because the moves are so large it distorts the eurozone figures. Not sure why it would be an issue to publish an additional data point to better capture underlying growth?

[Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen]

@CrytonFred The problem is that a lot of the Irish data doesn't necessarily capture real activity, and is incredibly volatile. This is why the Irish stats office publish adjusted data series, which give a better picture of underlying economic developments.

[Byrne Hobart @ByrneHobart]

And:

[Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen]

For our final pod on Hungary I finally got to let loose on the gullible western "intellectuals" pushing the embarrassingly biased government-aligned polls, and I didn't even mention the pathetic sharing of the most obvious fake news about Magyar.

[242.news @24_2news]

🔊New https://t.co/IClIJRiI9F podcast with @gscheiring @GUQatar, @pbergsen and Tim G. Jones talking 🇭🇺election, @magyarpeterMP policy priorities, what next for @PM_ViktorOrban. Subscribe at ...
https://t.co/q8W5Bt8fIK
https://t.co/3ZiiFgUNTG
https://t.co/mTnIciFrrb

[242.news @24_2news]

By the way, just for the "polls are always wrong" crowd ...

The Hungarian election result was Tisza 53% and Fidesz 38%.

Right up to the end, government-aligned pollsters McLaughlin, Alapjogokért Központ, XXI. Század and Nézőpont found Fidesz was leading. This alone may have been a motivational problem for Fidesz and its voters.

The final polls from the independent companies were Tisza leads of 55/38 from 21 Research, 56/38 Medián, 54/40 Závecz, 52/39 Publicus, 51/40 Iránytű, 50/37 IDEA and 49/40 Republikon.

With the exception of the combative Endre Hann at Medián, they were all too traumatised by past elections and cowed by Fidesz gerrymandering fully to believe their own data but they were uncannily right.

Just this once, let's try and remember this time.

[Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen]

And it's hard to overstate how well the independent polling institutes did

[Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen]

I would feel incredibly embarrassed right now if I had been involved in any of the government-aligned polling in Hungary or even just shared those poll results at any point

[Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen]

@HuubBellemakers Bepaalt Soros niet waar je naartoe wordt gestuurd?

[242.news @24_2news]

🇭🇺 In case you missed it, listen to our extensive interview with Péter Magyar‘s political biographer at https://t.co/HxoraEvcXi

[Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen]

Another win for the pollsters

[Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen]

@NairoInGreen Bissiger only proper bike racer in that group

[Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen]

Really enjoying all the scorching tweets and think pieces on Hungary debunking the idea that Magyar will be a progressive liberal, an idea that absolutely nobody anywhere has ever had.

[242.news @24_2news]

🔊Final https://t.co/mHjnq6myRZ Hungary election podcast out!

Ábel Bede and Gabriela Greilinger join Tim G. Jones and @pbergsen to cover Péter Magyar’s gruelling campaign trail, Fidesz’s apparent collapse, hopes for Sunday and fear of hubris.

For a crash course in all-things Hungary before Sunday, go to:

https://t.co/ViGWmkfvw0
https://t.co/9vJ1dTLX63
https://t.co/6FViV3kDSz

https://t.co/MLgicwIvlr