Peaky Props

No blinders. Just data-driven player props across the NBA, WNBA & NFL that beat the books 💪

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

Peaky's Recap 07/22: 4-0📈

✅ - Monique Akoa Makani o9.5 Points (14) +.89u
✅- Jessica Shepard o17.5 RA (25) +.80u
✅- Sabrina Ionescu o16.5 Points (29) +.77u
✅- Arike Ogunbowale o16.5 Points (24) +.81u

Daily P&L: +3.27 Units📈

Lady luck was on our side tonight. Nice to get some winners before the break, see y'all in a week💪🏽

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

@FIFABrit The assist dowman got for the goal was excellent

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

Run This Back🔁

Leila Lacan o4.5 Assists/ Ogwumike 10+ P
(+104 | 1 Unit)

❤ Like if you want another Play!

- Playing this over on Caesars. It's playable on DK and Hardrock. Would play 5.5 at +130 for .6-.7 units if you can't get this down.

- Just running it back with Leican here. Backed her last time these teams faced a couple days ago where she managed 10 assists on 15 potentials. Coming off a really poor game in a tough matchup against the Aces. Like for her to exploit this defense again.

- Without Griner she's over in 8/11 averaging 5.5 assists on 11.1 potentials. Against teams ranked in the bottom half for assists allowed she's over in 5/6 averaging 6.3 on 11.7 potentials.

- Nneka getting 10 does scare me a tad with the Sparks saying they want to play bench players more down the stretch. But she announced her retirement so hoping for the Tina Charles let her shoot treatment.

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

✅ First half cash for the rookie! 6 trips to the charity stripe to send her over💸

❤️ Like if you Tailed!

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

She Will Dish Tonight🍽

Angel Reese o2.5 Assists
(-128 | 1 Unit)

❤ Like if you want another Play!

- Feels kind of weird to bet on Angel to just pass but she has been doing a good job as of late. PAs have skyrocketed recently.

- Over her L10 games she has managed 3.5 assists on 7.3 potentials but numbers have really ticked up over the L5. Over her L5 games she's averaging 8.6 potentials with games of 11, 9, and 12.

- Matchup against the Mercury who apparently give up the least amount of assists to forwards in the league. We've seen some good performances from bigs as of late: Ogwumike (8), Austin (3), Griner (4), Reese (3), Cardoso (5), Jones (5) etc.

- Angel has played them twice so far this season and has managed 4 assists in both outings on 6 and 4 potentials.

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

@MrDtAFC Two completely different situations. Jesus deserves to be pushed out, not Martinelli

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

@1GAFC “He hasn’t been spoken to or know what’s going on”. It’s one thing leaving him out of the matchday squad but to not tell him we’re looking to move him and being open with him while doing it is nasty

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

@ked44488198 @SkySportsPL Madueke clearly, dowman is more than serviceable on the right

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

Run This Back🔁

Leila Lacan o4.5 Assists/ Ogwumike 10+ P
(+104 | 1 Unit)

❤ Like if you want another Play!

- Playing this over on Caesars. It's playable on DK and Hardrock. Would play 5.5 at +130 for .6-.7 units if you can't get this down.

- Just running it back with Leican here. Backed her last time these teams faced a couple days ago where she managed 10 assists on 15 potentials. Coming off a really poor game in a tough matchup against the Aces. Like for her to exploit this defense again.

- Without Griner she's over in 8/11 averaging 5.5 assists on 11.1 potentials. Against teams ranked in the bottom half for assists allowed she's over in 5/6 averaging 6.3 on 11.7 potentials.

- Nneka getting 10 does scare me a tad with the Sparks saying they want to play bench players more down the stretch. But she announced her retirement so hoping for the Tina Charles let her shoot treatment.

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

✅ First half cash for the rookie! 6 trips to the charity stripe to send her over💸

❤️ Like if you Tailed!

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

Put The Ball In The Basket🧺

Laura Juskaite o10.5 Points
(-110 | 1 Unit)

❤ Like if you want another Play!

- Minutes can be a bit volatile but think she should see 25+ here. 29 minutes last game against the Mystics which was the most on the team.

- With 24+ minutes she's over this line in 13/19 averaging 13.3 PPG. Filter it further to teams not ranked in the top 5 for Spot Up/ Transition and she's over in 7/9 averaging 13.7 PPG.

- The Fire rank 15th in both Spot Up defense and Transition which is where 49% of her production comes from. She had 14 FGA against them last time these teams met with Mabrey active.

- Over the L10 games the Fire allow the 2nd most points, 2nd most corner 3PA, and the 2nd highest assisted basket %. On the season they are the 3rd worst at defending opposing forwards.

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

@Gambler77Goated Feels funky for sure 😅

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

She Will Dish Tonight🍽

Angel Reese o2.5 Assists
(-128 | 1 Unit)

❤ Like if you want another Play!

- Feels kind of weird to bet on Angel to just pass but she has been doing a good job as of late. PAs have skyrocketed recently.

- Over her L10 games she has managed 3.5 assists on 7.3 potentials but numbers have really ticked up over the L5. Over her L5 games she's averaging 8.6 potentials with games of 11, 9, and 12.

- Matchup against the Mercury who apparently give up the least amount of assists to forwards in the league. We've seen some good performances from bigs as of late: Ogwumike (8), Austin (3), Griner (4), Reese (3), Cardoso (5), Jones (5) etc.

- Angel has played them twice so far this season and has managed 4 assists in both outings on 6 and 4 potentials.

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

@ArtetaEra Martinelli, Smith-Rowe, & Saka. 3 players that were bright spots in dark days when senior players were downing tools. Deserve more respect

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

Peaky's Recap 08/20: 1-2📉

✅ - Angel Reese o15.5 Points (20) +.85u
❌ - Paige Bueckers o20.5 Points (13) -1u
❌ - Dearica Hamby o14.5 Points (8) -1u

Daily P&L: -1.15 Units📉

Another day where profit was defenitely on the cards. Paige 2/3 with 16 FGA just couldn't make anything last night. Honestly wasn't amazing reads on either Reese or Hamby as the Dream skunked the Sparks at home.

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

Peaky's Picks 08/20🥃
❤ Like if Tailing Any!

- Angel Reese o15.5 Points (-118)
- Paige Bueckers o20.5 Points (-113)
- Dearica Hamby o14.5 Points (-110)

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

Put The Ball In The Basket🧺

Laura Juskaite o10.5 Points
(-110 | 1 Unit)

❤ Like if you want another Play!

- Minutes can be a bit volatile but think she should see 25+ here. 29 minutes last game against the Mystics which was the most on the team.

- With 24+ minutes she's over this line in 13/19 averaging 13.3 PPG. Filter it further to teams not ranked in the top 5 for Spot Up/ Transition and she's over in 7/9 averaging 13.7 PPG.

- The Fire rank 15th in both Spot Up defense and Transition which is where 49% of her production comes from. She had 14 FGA against them last time these teams met with Mabrey active.

- Over the L10 games the Fire allow the 2nd most points, 2nd most corner 3PA, and the 2nd highest assisted basket %. On the season they are the 3rd worst at defending opposing forwards.

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

She Will Dominate Tonight😈

Carla Leite o24.5 PA
(-118 | 1 Unit)

❤ Like if you want another Play!

- Missed a few games due to injury but is back now and is pretty much at her regular minutes, would like to see her tick closer to 30 here.

- We took this line at 25.5 last time these teams met and I'm fine getting a 1 PA discount. Toronto over the L10 games give up the most points and assists in the WNBA.

- With Barker OFF & Leite/DiLeo ON she averages 35.3 PA per36 minutes or 27.5 per28. With 25+ minutes against teams not top 5 for defensive rating she's over in 4/5 averaging 29.4 PA per game.

- Numbers do take a hit on the road but just going to trust the matchup. Gets most of her points at the rim where Toronto give up the most points on the season.

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

✅ First half cash for Angel. She hitting 3s and doing the scuba on them 😭😂

❤️ Like if you Tailed!

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

Put The Ball In The Basket🧺

Laura Juskaite o10.5 Points
(-110 | 1 Unit)

❤ Like if you want another Play!

- Minutes can be a bit volatile but think she should see 25+ here. 29 minutes last game against the Mystics which was the most on the team.

- With 24+ minutes she's over this line in 13/19 averaging 13.3 PPG. Filter it further to teams not ranked in the top 5 for Spot Up/ Transition and she's over in 7/9 averaging 13.7 PPG.

- The Fire rank 15th in both Spot Up defense and Transition which is where 49% of her production comes from. She had 14 FGA against them last time these teams met with Mabrey active.

- Over the L10 games the Fire allow the 2nd most points, 2nd most corner 3PA, and the 2nd highest assisted basket %. On the season they are the 3rd worst at defending opposing forwards.

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

She Will Dominate Tonight😈

Carla Leite o24.5 PA
(-118 | 1 Unit)

❤ Like if you want another Play!

- Missed a few games due to injury but is back now and is pretty much at her regular minutes, would like to see her tick closer to 30 here.

- We took this line at 25.5 last time these teams met and I'm fine getting a 1 PA discount. Toronto over the L10 games give up the most points and assists in the WNBA.

- With Barker OFF & Leite/DiLeo ON she averages 35.3 PA per36 minutes or 27.5 per28. With 25+ minutes against teams not top 5 for defensive rating she's over in 4/5 averaging 29.4 PA per game.

- Numbers do take a hit on the road but just going to trust the matchup. Gets most of her points at the rim where Toronto give up the most points on the season.

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

✅ First half cash for Angel. She hitting 3s and doing the scuba on them 😭😂

❤️ Like if you Tailed!

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

Put The Ball In The Basket🧺

Angel Reese o15.5 Points
(-118 | 1 Unit)

❤ Like if you want another Play!

- Angel Reese has been killing us recently. Hooked us twice on our last two bets but this is the one, I feel it.

- Just a great matchup against the Sparks who bleed bad at the rim. We took Ododa here last game and running it back with Angel this time.

- Over the L10 games they are allowing the most points at the rim which is where Angel scores 84% of hers. They are also allowing the most restricted area FGM, and 2nd most points in the paint.

- Against teams that rank 10-15 in def rating & are not a top rim defense, she is over in 7/9 averaging 18.4 PPG which includes a 23 point performance vs the Sparks earlier this season.

[Peaky Props @PeakyProps]

@Gambler77Goated Great read my guy, volume was elite