Peasant

long human ingenuity | opinions my own

[Peasant @peasant_dirty]

"The most important thing to remember is that inflation is not an act of God, that inflation is not a catastrophe of the elements or a disease that comes like the plague. Inflation is a policy."

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Just two billionaires arguing over who's the bigger fraud 🤪

[Peasant @peasant_dirty]

@cullenroche @Timbassett @MarkMaddenX @grok And the logical conclusion is that something “popular” in India or Africa is actually not popular cause spending power is lower?

Lower barriers to entry WOULD lead to more popularity all things equal.

“widely liked, admired, or enjoyed by a large number of people”

[Peasant @peasant_dirty]

@cullenroche @Timbassett @MarkMaddenX @grok Popularity measures unique humans, revenue is a function of monetization.

It’s like saying chess isn’t popular cause they don’t monetize well

[Autism Capital 🧩 @AutismCapital]

>Be European
>AC is racist and evil
>Dying in the heat
>Become sick
>You can't take any days off anymore unless you have a doctor's note
>Can't get a doctor's appointment for 2 months because of universal healthcare
>Complain about it online
>You're now in prison
>Still hot

[National Park Service @NatlParkService]

You know it’s hot when you go outside and it’s hot.

[Peasant @peasant_dirty]

The history of the internet would disagree with this take

[Matt Shumer @mattshumer_]

If your answer to Fable/5.6 being held back is “open source will save us,” you’re missing the plot.

Sure, the gov can block American labs from serving frontier models.

But you think they’ll let Americans download similarly powerful Chinese weights?

Yeah. Sure.

[Peasant @peasant_dirty]

@AnselLindner @blockchainchick You didn’t say anything here.

What’s the actual capital inflow? Interest payments, active trading, equity sales, underlying BI business?

[Peasant @peasant_dirty]

@zaidlikesmstr @WazzCrypto @saylor @LaDoger Ah you work there. Sry wasn’t trying to be snarky

[Peasant @peasant_dirty]

@zaidlikesmstr @WazzCrypto @saylor @LaDoger Why wouldn’t you just buy bitcoin? Mstr is an inferior capital structure for a carry trade

[Cameron 🇺🇸 🗽🦅 @CameronCorduroy]

>renames it to the Department of War
>names himself the Secretary of War
>fights one war
>loses

[Peasant @peasant_dirty]

@btcfeen Glad it clicked for you!

[Peasant @peasant_dirty]

@btcfeen This is what you don’t understand. It’s not collateral coverage, it’s liquidity.

[Peasant @peasant_dirty]

@btcfeen “Buyers of strc…know strategy can stop payments”

Mstr is now dilutive when issued, selling bitcoin drives down mstr price, not enough cash on hand, strc creates substantial cash obligation without requirement to continue to pay.

Strc gonna get old yeller’d

[ella devi @ellad3vi]

they were parading elmo's head around on a pike last night

[Peasant @peasant_dirty]

@TheFlowHorse @MartinShkreli Screen out unhealthy population who cannot be prescribed drug.

Remaining population lives longer.

Wow!

[Sid Prabhu @sidprabhu]

@Jesse_Livermore @DoodCapital Buffett is an expert at transferring societal value to shareholders.
Musk is an expert at transferring shareholder value to society.

[Peasant @peasant_dirty]

@Bluntz_Capital Cred called it https://t.co/sP63ryT14s

[Cred @CryptoCred]

There have been a few key changes in crypto market structure.

I've written about this topic before but I found myself carrying some stale epistemological baggage about how the market used to be versus what it is at the moment, so thought I'd share.

1. More coins than ever before and the barrier to creating new coins has never been lower.

2. More competition for the hot ball of money (AI, semis, tech, even commodities) and instruments like 0DTE options - all of which are very attractive to normies.

3. Change in participant type and sophistication - ETFs, more tradfi shops, suits etc.

4. Normie flows that used to concentrate around a few CEXes and a limited token set have been fragmented by the infinite listings and existence of the trenches.

There are fewer normie flows, they're spread too thin, and it's difficult to come back to the casino if you get dumped on for holding longer than 15 seconds.

The main attractor to crypto used to be outsized, long-lasting, and well-distributed trend and momentum effects that were easy to access because there weren't that many venues or coins.

That's basically up only/alt season i.e. multi-month periods that were responsible for a disproportionate amount of a crypto trader's lifetime P&L.

A rising tide lifting all boats is an overused but appropriate analogy - it didn't really matter what coins you bought.

If you got the broader market conditions right, you'd enjoy significant uplift and basically get bailed out even if you made bad picks.

In the current paradigm you can't afford to make bad picks.

To be precise: in previous cycles if you got the conditions right but the assets wrong, you'd still make money but underperform. In the current cycle (even from the most recent BTC run) if you got conditions right but the assets wrong, you got shafted.

So asset selection went from a nice-to-have enhancer to one of the main drivers of returns, even if BTC is going up.

That's a pretty significant departure from what we've dealt with in the past

This type of dispersion is a symptom of the market maturing.

I think that's a net good thing and is likely to incentivise more intelligent token design, less ghost chain VC slop etc.

But that's a forward-looking view, and at the moment we're trapped in this awkward transition phase where the old rules don't really apply but we haven't figured out a new framework yet e.g. top N coins by market cap are still mostly shit vs quality.

Maybe I'm wrong and everything changes and we go back to the market-wide altseason paradigm when conditions are right. This could all be cyclical, but I think that's less compelling than before given the dispersion we saw on the way up too vs just to the downside.

I think it's a good time (especially with other markets and asset classes going crazy) to revisit where crypto sits in the speculative stack and how to approach it as the market is changing.

Cheers.

[Peasant @peasant_dirty]

Only path out is through. @saylor should hard dump bitcoin to create viable financial runway. STRC was a giant mistake.

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

People keep saying BTC isn't going down because Saylor sold 32 BTC

Yeah no shit Sherlock, thanks for letting us know 32 BTC isn't gonna move price

It's down because even the most delusional fans of his had to adjust from "he's never selling" to "what if he actually sells more"

[Clem 🏆 @TheClemReport]

To all my fellow bird people, this is our king