andy

high schooler on the internet | options supercycle

[andy @perpafinil]

cya in q4

[andy @perpafinil]

rejected 2 times at 83 gg

[Merlijn The Trader @MerlijnTrader]

Bears were right. For 48 hours.

$BTC hit $80,308. I bought it.

Now: reclaim $83,300 and their pattern turns into a trap.

[Astekz @astekz]

$DRV - About to triple in price rapidly

[Cooker.hl | 版本之子 |🅿️ (Theo Arc) @CookerFlips]

Fk a delta neutral

[andy @perpafinil]

a beaut

[lito @litocoen]

derive accidentally sent me one merch box too much

any derive og here in australia who would like one?

[andy @perpafinil]

Hmm

[Omen @omenapp]

Fractional options.

This is the future of trading.

[andy @perpafinil]

gg

[CGT Trader @CGT_Trader]

$BTC

Binance is once again buying aggressively during the weekend.

Sunday scam pump, or are they already frontrunning next week?

[XxX @jeffreywiill]

Pretty much can just walk away for 2 weeks until this thing folds

[carlisle @0xcarlisle]

meant to get liquidated, printed instead

[aaalex.hl @aaalex]

Like this if you're too poor and your trade is stuck waiting in line

[andy @perpafinil]

you know what fuck it

one Lincoln doesn't even look far away ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be

[Yoddha @CryptoYoddha]

$ETH above $5K in the next 6 months or I cut my d**k

[andy @perpafinil]

thank god im not on perps cuz i wouldve been sl, another ad for options

but $BTC got brutally rejected on that ~83500 range

i think it'll go swing back down to ~81000 to 80500 where it creates two swing lows

[andy @perpafinil]

thesis: 🦋🦋

joking but i see another retest at around ~80,500 to 80,000 range -- 10/10 is coming up, and i dont see really anything to be 'bullish' about; macro news have been absolutely abysmal, while retail isn't any better. A correction is needed.

[andy @perpafinil]

asia bloodbath 🔜

[Stacy Muur @stacy_muur]

Binance will temporarily suspend trading on 10/10 this year...

You just can't make this up.

[RunnerUSD @RunnerXBT]

maybe we actually deserve a second 10/10

[Tulip King 🌷 @tulipking]

Derive ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be is trading at ~65x fees post citrini if you annualize this last month. In theory that's expensive but not when you look at growth:

* SEP '25, $663M notional, $142k fees, $35M mcap, 35% buyback, ~20x fees

* SEP '26, ~$5B notional (up 7.5x), $705k fees (up 5x), $388M mcap, 35% buyback, ~46x fees

Looking forward, Derive just launched their V3 in the first week of this month and passed a vote to raise buybacks from 35% to 50%. When you're evaluating the fair value of the protocol, it should be based on what you expect the future earnings potential of the protocol to be

All else held equal, if Derive can 5x fees again, then you're really looking at a forward ratio of just 9x. That seems incredibly reasonable to me. But that's not what I'm pricing in. I fully believe right now is the moment for options. The growth could be spectacular:

> For some context from 2023 to 2024 perps volume on Hyperliquid increased 10x from $52B to $560B (a 10x, similar to the year Derive just had). Then from 2024 to 2025 perps volume went up another 5x BUT fees went up a blistering 88x from $11M to $971M ! When you're the leading protocol in the category your volume is typically healthier with a lot of revenue producing volume (revenue isn't 1:1 with volume, different types of trades, leverage, liquidations, different markets, etc... impact how this works)

I raise the hl example because I want to be full hearted about what **could** happen with Derive. Would I be surprised to see them 10x'ing, 20x'ing, or even more for their fees? No.

In that scenario what should Derive trade at? Say you want a 20x multiple on the leading options dex that just did a 10x of fees, Derive would be trading at ~$1.6B (about $1.50 per coin). Scenario's where Derive can more than 10x fees or command an even higher premium on the back of a rising options super cycle get you to prices in the $5-$10 range [within a year!]

All of this is just to say that the current price for Derive seems pretty damn fair to me. If the Citrini post teleported the coin to $2, I'd be a seller right now. But we're sitting at a pretty reasonable spot if you're debating at least building a starter position while you watch this thing in the long run.

Last thing, yes this is all based on execution. You're absolutely making a bet that onchain options will grow largely this coming year & that Derive will likely not keep it's 90% share but that it will remain the largest player. But the good thing is you can just watch the metrics and be patient. There will be months that perform better than expected. There will be months that perform worse than expected. Such is life. For now I'd say let's all patiently watch Q4 in light of all these cool updates Derive just made and keep evaluating with reasonable eyes. If Derive crushes it, buy and hold. If they flop, sell. Just be patient before making either choice

With respect to competition:

* Jeff has pretty much confirmed Hyperliquid is not building vanilla options and will be sticking to Binary options for the foreseeable future. That's fine, he's gonna make a gazillion dollars just by winning the perps market, but binary options are inferior to vanilla options so I'm not worried about the competition. And if he does lock in on vanilla options, it's fine. I hold a bunch of Hype and am happy to ride that thing to $1,000

* The Lighter team says they're launching vanilla options in late Q4. First, we'll see if they're on time. Then we'll see if they can compete. I'm not going to sell the leading options protocol with 90% share in the middle of an options supercycle just because of some boogyman

* Variational, Hypercall, and any others all seem kinda small and irrelevant at this point. I'll make an opinion on them if they start to matter

note: the stats screenshot shows October which is still less than 1/3rd over. There were also some low metrics in the first week of October as traders were waiting for a successful V3 migration (makes sense) before putting size back into options trading and market making. So don't worry too much about the last candle on these charts

[PILTR @PILTR_XBT]

$BTC pre weekend update

The initial selloff was primarily a long squeeze. We tested dVWAP, followed by what I wanted to see: buying initiative that initially translated into higher prices.
-> spot locally participated as well

I was interested in longs, even around dVWAP, but the aggression was relatively modest and follow-through faded quickly, was not really convincing, which we see right now...

Since then, price has been driven mainly by existing positioning, with participants closing contracts and reducing exposure ahead of the weekend.
We're now back at dVWAP / daily POC, where some renewed selling aggression was initially absorbed.
-> but the read here is more or less unmeaningful for me

volume is drying up and participation remains limited. Not particularly interesting to me opening stuff into market close

Below daily POC, I see little reason to favor bulls. Above us, equilibrium remains my next POI.
For a potential long, I'd rather see a more aggressive sweep of the lows, followed by failed selling pressure and evidence of trapped shorts.

No reason to force a trade in these conditions.
That's it for me today, guys. Enjoy your weekend!

[Kaz @XBTkaz]

$BTC

Price is slowly bouncing after a decent drop from yesterday,

And we got a 2hr OB + 0.382 level above, which imo is gonna give us the continuation towards lower.

Though the thing to notice here is that if price dumps into our monthly reversal pivot window (14-16),

In that case might see a LTF bounce from there before going even lower.

Overall in short, I don't think we are done with the downside yet and expecting the next 1-2 weeks to be bearish as well.

[andy @perpafinil]

a dollar doesn't look too far away here 👀

ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be

[andy @perpafinil]

@tulipking 🫡 options supercycle

[andy @perpafinil]

gotta get back on perps now, its time to 3x lev the shit out of ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be

[Moritz @moritzpike]

update 7 hours later: +30%

I got filled way too small to celebrate tho @pear_protocol