Perseverance Capital 💡

former banker, PE and corporate development & finance guy.
man of endless ideas.

[Perseverance Capital 💡 @perseverancecap]

$FISV the multi-bagger stock case, after recent Investor Day and ai partnerships with powerhouses Open Ai, Sierra and Cognition.

1. Massive, Underpenetrated TAMs for @Fiserv

Fiserv operates across two huge end markets — Merchant Solutions (~$290B TAM) and Financial Solutions (~$140B TAM) — with modest market share today and unmatched capabilities amplified by AI, giving it a long runway of durable growth.

2. Clover: The Crown Jewel with Compounding Upside @clovercommerce

Clover is Fiserv's cloud-based POS and small business operating platform, and it's far from mature. The company's medium-term outlook (2027–2029) targets 15–20% Clover GPV growth and 10–15% Clover revenue growth, driven by same-store sales, net new merchant conversions, and value-added services (VAS) adoption. Clover VAS now represents 27% of Clover revenue, led by software attach and Clover Capital lending — a sign the platform is moving up the value stack.

3. "Constant Compounder" Financial Model

Fiserv provides mission-critical services under long-dated contracts and generates strong free cash flow — the hallmarks of what management calls a "constant compounder."

Free cash flow conversion hit 93% in 2025, and the company has consistently returned capital to shareholders. In 2024 alone, Fiserv repurchased 33.9 million shares for $5.5 billion — a massive reduction in share count that mechanically boosts EPS over time.

4. AI as a Moat Amplifier, Not a Threat, with Partnerships with Open AI, Sierra and Cognition

As AI comes to banking and commerce, the disruption is concentrating at the application or surface layer, while routing, clearing, settlement, and compliance require deep integration, licensing, regulatory approval, and the payment rails themselves globally — exactly where Fiserv lives. This makes its infrastructure harder to displace, not easier. sec

5. The "One Fiserv" Platform Modernization

Fiserv built a single cloud-native platform with a unified multi-acquirer gateway (CommerceHub), a single payment switch, and a single ledger (Finxact) as the entry point for all merchant solutions — processing $4.6 trillion in volume. This consolidation removes redundant costs and opens upsell opportunities. The modern Finxact core saw accounts grow over 70% recently, showing early traction.

6. Medium-Term Re-Acceleration Setup

Management's medium-term outlook (2027–2029) calls for 6–8% adjusted revenue CAGR in Merchant Solutions, accelerating from the current transition-year pace. Management characterizes 2026 as a transition year, with early signs of stabilization emerging from service initiatives. A re-acceleration into 2027 could be a significant catalyst.

7. Embedded Finance & New Revenue Frontiers

Fiserv's multi-party commerce platform (CommerceHub) enables platforms to onboard sellers, accept payments, monetize, and manage payouts — processing $65B+ in GPV and growing 15%+ year over year. On top of that, Fiserv is actively building in embedded finance and stablecoin infrastructure — early-stage bets that could be significant.

$QQQ $SPY #fintech #ai #OpenAi #Cognition #Sierra #agent #stablecoin #value #growth #multibagger

https://t.co/XNLYiTuGrw

[包叔 @baoshu88]

梁文峰：我们现在大概是两万张H 等效，接下来几个月我们还会有大批量的机器买过来，基本上都是英伟达。

[大漂亮| C Labs @giantcutie666]

梁文峰实录现在国内被全网删帖，打听了一下说是涉嫌泄密，可以总结为“某为的卡，又贵又卡”：

华为的超节点,华为的 950 超节点,在性能和价格上可以完全平替英伟达的 GB200、GB300。价格肯定要贵,但贵得有限。

价格贵百分之五十、百分之一百,贵百分之一百无所谓,贵百分之两百都无所谓。比如贵百分之一百,我觉得已经可以认为在价格上可以平替了。

在任务上也是可以平替的,所有 GB300 能做的任务,华为超节点都能做,延时什么都一样。

唯一的代价是,四张华为卡顶一张英伟达的卡,同时落后两年。四张顶一张这个可以理解。

落后两年的意思是,四张华为 950 能顶一张 GB300。落后两年是时间上落后两年。

华为 950 超节点是今年 Q3 还是 Q4 的货,英伟达 GB200 是两年前 Q3 的货,差两年。英伟达今年 Q3 可能已经有新一代了。

所以我们跟美国在芯片上的差距,我认为生态上以后不会再有差距,但是在芯片上是四倍加两年。

国产芯片产能问题今年、明年、后年都会卡，但五年后一定能解决。中美AI差距约12到18个月，但国内只用了美国二十分之一的算力。人才根本不缺，差的就是卡。

目标是“把差距缩到6个月、3个月”。公司一半的核心研究员都在标数据——这是现阶段最重要的事。高端数据瓶颈不是钱，是时间。

[The AI Therapist @TheAIShrink]

@prosperousguy $FISV is the quiet compounder that outperforms the hype cycle.
unfilled gaps don't matter when your cash flow compounding doubles every 3 years.
boring wins

[Fiserv @Fiserv]

Proud to share Fiserv has been recognized by @CNBC as one of the World’s Top Fintech Companies for the fourth consecutive year — a reflection of our payments leadership and the associates who help unite commerce and finance for clients around the world.

https://t.co/tyywvhqlSE

[王局志安 @wangzhian8848]

梁文峰四小时交流会内容：
1，英伟达那套生态一年内就废了，华为的卡一年后完全能平替英伟达，贵一倍两倍都无所谓。
2，谁想着靠AI暴利谁就死，拿得少的人一定打败拿得多的人，OpenAI就是因为想独占才被围攻。
3，奇点不是什么爆炸，是个漫长的温水煮青蛙过程，而且顺序不能乱——先解决持续学习，再到自我迭代，最后才做机器人。
4，Ai技术路线是这样：语言模型 → 思维链(CoT) → Agent → 持续学习 → 智能奇点(自我迭代) → 具身智能，现在处于Agent走一半，持续学习是下一个必须跨过去的坎，跨过去才能进入AI自己迭代自己的奇点阶段。
5，克制是核心战略，主动放弃C端流量争夺战，不做超级App，短期商业化只是保底，全部资源主线聚焦AGI。
6，中美AI差距就一年，但国内只用了人家二十分之一的算力，人才根本不缺，差的就是卡。
7，公司一半的核心研究员都在标数据，这就是现阶段最重要的事，高端数据瓶颈不是钱，是时间。
8，最坏情况技术冻结了，光卖API也够撑起一家上市公司，商业化根本不用愁。
9，不加班、没KPI、没组织架构，全靠愿景驱动，因为做研究就得松弛，逼太紧反而没用。
10，国产芯片产能问题今年明年后年都卡，但五年后肯定解决了。
11，国内几十家做基模的公司太多了，最后就剩三四家，而且谁也别想有暴利。
12，视频生成、3D、世界模型这些东西跟智能上限没关系，纯粹是商业噱头，坚决不做。
13，员工期权拿够、团队稳住，AGI（通用人工智能）就一定能成，其他全是小事，最多晚个一年半载。
14，中国AI最终拼的是“系统性便宜”，就跟制造业一样，成本优势是结构性的。
15，持续学习要是先做出来了，通用智能就很简单，让AI自己帮自己研究就行。

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: House officially passes bill barring members of Congress & their families from purchasing individual stocks, with 13 Democrats joining all Republicans.

[Perseverance Capital 💡 @perseverancecap]

$FISV is being traded as if a quant funds’ damaged toy

[Codie Sanchez @Codie_Sanchez]

The less you've built, the more you criticize.

[Bill Gurley @bgurley]

@UnderSecE How do you characterize this?

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

We are in the Singularity

[Perseverance Capital 💡 @perseverancecap]

cannot hedge if getting bombed

[Michael (Hedge Fund Manager) @HedgeFundFomo]

Just bought a vacation home in Iran

I also own 3,000 shares of Lockheed Martin

I'm perfectly hedged

[Perseverance Capital 💡 @perseverancecap]

I am an American X user who’s traveling in China…

I am constantly being labeled as spam…

what why…

[Bob's Payment Stock Substack @bobspaysubstack]

Nowhere did I say they would definitely accept a bid of $73, simply that there’s more of a possibility they do starting at that level. And, yes, if you run a DCF on $PYPL $GPN $FISV and $FOUR where they sustain growth near recent levels they will show all of those companies significantly undervalued. If only it was easy as that…

[Perseverance Capital 💡 @perseverancecap]

@PolitlcsUK cannot blame the guy

[Garry Tan @garrytan]

Great reminder to stay frosty

[Alec MacGillis @AlecMacGillis]

This is pretty bleak.

[PaymentExecutive @pymtexecutive]

🏦 The biggest debit rails story in years just landed — and it sent @Visa and @Mastercard stocks sliding.

July 7: @WSJ reports @JPMorgan, @BankofAmerica, @WellsFargo, and @PNC explored buying @Fiserv's STAR and Accel debit networks.

The play: own the network → bypass the Durbin Amendment's fee caps. The same blueprint @CapitalOne used in the $50.6B Discover acquisition.

Market reaction:
📉 $V: -2.3% premarket
📉 $MA: -1.8% premarket
📈 $FI: jumped on deal speculation

The backdrop makes the logic clear:
→ Fiserv stock down ~70% from 2025 highs — distressed seller signal
→ V/MA received preliminary approval on a $38B interchange settlement — 10bps fee cut mandated over 5 years
→ Stablecoin rails (Open USD, x402) compressing long-term card economics further

Several banks have since said they're unlikely to proceed. But the conversation has been started.

28 years in payments — once banks realize they can own the rails, they don't forget it.

#DebitRails #Durbin #Fiserv #Interchange #Fintech $FI $V $MA

[Anshu @anshuc]

extremely unprofessional. if kimi wants to make it as a frontier lab, they need to act like one: perhaps silently route people to worse models, and maybe write a blog post about the collapse of humanity

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Trump officials are reportedly weighing blocking U.S. access to top Chinese AI models.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: China is accelerating efforts to stop its severe equity selloff, deploying two major state funds to buy domestic equities and stabilize capital markets, per Bloomberg.