Peter Zhang

Real Estate PE investor. Value Investor.

[Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” @Mr_Neutral_Man]

If you ever wonder why buying $CPT at a 4.4% dividend is likely better than the 10-year US Treasury at 5.3%. I have a free write up for you

The simple answer, AFFO/sh (REIT FCF) CAGR of 4.4% over 10 years and current AFFO yield of around 6%

https://t.co/NpCWXb3JGc

Can't believe I just came around to writing this one!!!

Also insane AFFO/Sh growth in SoCal Warehouse in the past decade, just unbelievable!!

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

@Mr_Neutral_Man @redwood_ryan_a So true. new unsecured bond in low 5 and and the REITs can build on 6%, still positive leverage. And we can buy at 7% cap at public market, even better. The valuation here is probably public markets < private market < replacement cost. The type of situation Sam Zell would love:)

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

@Mr_Neutral_Man Thanks for sharing. Best read on REIT sector.:)

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

This is a good one:)

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

This is a historic joke! The guy needs to go back to middle school!

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

Indeed. After went through all magic of value-adds, RE related techs and so-called proactive management, went I looked back the deals works and those don’t, the real magic is buying cheap and sit tight as long as you pick the right assets without leverage risk.

[Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” @Mr_Neutral_Man]

Run some IRR models for RE deals. Know what drives returns. In short, entry cap rates probably drives the bulk of the returns. In short, buy cheap. In most RE in normal environments, rent growth is good, but a 200 bp spread over market cap rates will drive the bulk of returns.

That’s what makes this market so interesting. It’s there for the taking, but ppl don’t want it.

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

@InvestInJapan Another important thing is the KPI is not based on stock price but on Earnings Yield. Simple, but not easy:)

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

@Mr_Neutral_Man That is a valuable perspective, thanks for sharing!

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

@DaBao_ I’m in Beijing and drop me a message. Would love to meet up

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

@PrivateEyeCap Thanks for sharing! Just in time:)

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

@100xCompounding Thanks for the sharing

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

@100xCompounding Great! Thanks for the sharing

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

@ValuePraya @taranvirkaonke I’m wondering how can they keep come up with new but different concepts and keep operating them well? What do you think is the core ability to originate new concepts? A problem 1978 and many others fails to solve

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

@Bonhoeffer_KDS @EquityBrian That’s just explanation on the delta between historical IRR/BV, as we can’t find Burford-only number before 2017. Nothing on the future. From 2021, growth it’s 10%, from 2017, it’s 20%. If from 2009, we may find the 26% they disclosed. But true, the trend don’t look so good.

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

@Bonhoeffer_KDS @EquityBrian Those return matrix is from 2009 to 2024, unlevered asset level. Over the past 5 yrs, BV grow around 10%. But if you go back to 2017, the earliest year Burford-only basis number is available, total assets grow at 20%. I think if we can go back to 2009, we can find higher return

[Josh Young @JoshYoung]

The divergence between oil prices and OECD inventories is widening. Eventually, either inventories or prices will increase a lot.

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

@Mr_Neutral_Man Long Slow Distance, a long-distance running exercise to increase cardio endurance and improve adaptability of muscles/ joint. Low intensity, the key is time not strength. It’s very helpful to build cardio foundations, no matter you jogging, cycling, or even fast walking.

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

@Mr_Neutral_Man how about $CUBE ?

[Stocks & Stones | Mathieu Martin @Stocks_Stones]

This is an excellent piece on the concept of boom-and-bust cycles. I can't help but think about the Canadian cannabis industry, which has had a massive bust over the last few years.

The new winners in that space are starting to emerge!

[Peter Zhang @peter_longzhang]

@Mr_Neutral_Man @missingmiddle On the 4Q24 call, I think it’s the first time they said they are finalizing the 141 Livingston renewal which around 11% of the company 4Q24 NOI. That’s also helpful. But do you think they will strategically default on 250 Livingston?