Trade deficits = bearish?
The data says no.
Over 40 years, the trade deficit, stocks, and the economy have moved together, not apart.
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Market Crash Indicator: The 30y:2y Treasury Yield Ratio closed Dec above 50 on the RSI, which has been 4/4 calling the crashes since 1980 - the barn door is wide open and calls for risk-off: Be aware of whipsaws, fakeouts, fakedowns etc. Bulls rarely go down easy or as expected
A wild ride for the U.S. dollar in 2025 - seen clearly through the Elliott wave lens 🧵
In December 2024, our Elliott wave analysis suggested the U.S. dollar’s rally wasn’t finished yet - but it was close.
Short-term waves pointed to one more meaningful push higher.