Peter Walker

Head of Insights @Cartainc | New data on startups out multiple times per week

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

State of Seed Startups - data from 10,000+ seed rounds from 2021-Q3 2025.

Valuations. Round Sizes. SAFEs vs priced. Dilution. Ai vs non-AI. Graduation Rates. SF vs everybody. Founder ownership. Hiring (+ AI/ML equity packages).

Full report: https://t.co/8d6TnQqBie

Data in 🧵

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@Super_PK_ Ah yea - well it’s not complete yet. 9 years is…60% done in VC these days.

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

Let's check in on how VCs are performing (past 9 vintage years).

1) Power law is alive and well. Gaps between top 10% and top 5% are wide.

2) 2021 is shaping up to have been a terrible year to be investing as a VC

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@Super_PK_ Yes. Top quartile isn’t good enough.

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@Kaare_Wagner DPI available here: https://t.co/TOjusBPbM7

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@hateag End up? We’re already there. Every institutional LP I know models venture to at least a 15-yr time horizon, sometimes 20.

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@julianweisser Huzzah!

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@vc @Trace_Cohen …maybe 😇

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@classonde This is from funds who use Carta as their fund admin. So we have absolutely everything for each one of those funds.

Carta is more than just cap tables these days :)

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@AaronLCannon These are not returns.

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@thogge @garrytan Ppl assume top quartile is good enough in venture but it very rarely is.

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@grantbelden @rexsalisbury Agreed!

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@grantbelden @rexsalisbury Because DPI after 5 years is pretty meaningless. The older vintages, more fair

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@hateag It always does :)

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@rexsalisbury don't want to make it too bleak now

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@MosesSternstein iz a gud chart tho

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@hateag We track that too. https://t.co/TOjusBPbM7

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@arian_ghashghai Building niche products is where it’s at tho

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@nunzi46 @endowment_eddie Not all the data*

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

@AdamDraper I don’t want any funding, just the honor of having beaten you.