Software is like aluminum.
Aluminum used to be a rare luxury metal. Kings were served their meals on it.
Then someone discovered that aluminium could be extracted from bauxite.
Now we wrap our sandwiches in it.
The aluminum industry is way bigger than it was back then, but the aluminum artisans who made plates for kings went out of business.
Today, the only way to make money in the aluminum industry is using cheap electricity at massive scale.
Nobody has a moat just because they can make aluminum anymore.
AI is doing this to software.
There will be more software than ever, but the ability to make it (including taste) will no longer be valuable.
Software isn't going away—it's margins and the artisans who make it are.
Cancer, Alzheimer's, and heart disease? Maybe.
Mental illness? How are you going to convince (some) people that they have the wrong worldview about reality? I don't see that happening ever, let alone within ten years.
New METR report came out and found out that all the good weather is almost over. Winter is accelerating. Forecasts furthermore suggest we may cross some unprecedented critical thresholds whereby liquid water may become solid, introducing novel governance problems.
I've been using Fable 5.2 for the last couple of days, and it's definitely my favorite model. But I have a feeling that Astra 6.1 (or whatever the next one is) will change that again.
If you found product-market fit, and know the dominant design paradigm(s) that you want your software to have, which you may have not known while searching for PMF, I think a complete rewrite in this day and age is quite reasonable.
In 10 years as CEO of two startups, I can't count how many times engineers pitched me a complete rewrite of our codebase.
It always reminded me of Steve Blank's Startup Suicide: Rewriting the Code and Joel Spolsky's Things You Should Never Do. Joel compared rewriting software from scratch to demolishing a building instead of renovating it. I always agreed and pushed back hard on rewrites.
But AI has completely changed my mind.
When you can coordinate a swarm of thousands of coding agents, the economics are completely different. Suddenly there's an enormous premium on having an agent-native codebase: super fast CI, minimal dependencies, clean architecture, every decision documented, and everything optimized for agents rather than humans.
For the first time in my career, I'm starting to think a complete rewrite might actually be the right call.