Pierre

Development planning expert | Decades in the uncomfortable trenches of demography, sociology, macroeconomics, housing policy & sustainable development | Charts

[Pierre @PHfloor]

Housing starts swing wildly. Annoying I know.

Linear trend always “up,” polynomial shows the cycle (better fit with data).

Can we get to the mythical supply-sider green line where volatility is suppressed + more supply + more empty units...which presumably drives price⬇️?

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@xpertpyramid That's right, tell your councilors to fix this.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

The fee and regulatory burden in Vancouver is causing these brutal results.

[Abundant Housing Vancouver @ahvancouver]

Development fees both add to & overlap with other barriers, especially zoning & permitting processes. Add more costs like inclusionary zoning, offsite improvement costs, & even code changes cancelling out fee reductions & analysis is even more complex.
https://t.co/OHbYyRa98M
1/2

[Pierre @PHfloor]

Pretty wild how home experienced a historic price spike during that population collapse between 2020-2021.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@kvss1992 @Coffee__Capital In the end, CAD goes up when it's more in demand for whatever reason.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@kvss1992 @Coffee__Capital Maybe we are in a foreign home buyer ban, tariff regime now.

But no one really knows.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@oakridge604 Doesn't more experience mean better productivity?

Don't cut yourself short.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

What the hell, Australia productivity in the crapper too?

[Marko Matvikov @MarkoMatvikov]

Productivity isn’t about working harder.

It’s about producing more from the effort already being put in.

Australians may be working harder than ever, but we’re getting less output for that effort.

This means lower profits, slower wage growth, weaker public finances and less prosperity to go around.

So when population grows but productivity falls, living standards go backwards.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@UrbanHealthProf But below market rate emphasis for both right?

[Pierre @PHfloor]

Is what the collaborative is talking about in the room with us right now?

Build Canada Homes mandate👇

[Patrick Condon @pmcondon2]

Folks. Please think about this as an economic development strategy: https://t.co/4GNXEpyH87

"Investing in the renewal and new construction of public housing has the power to shape the region’s future, delivering far-reaching gains over 25 years."

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@UrbanHealthProf Oh really? Do tell...give us a rundown.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@deerpointmacro Good point.

I'm far less worried about this metric than others.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

Anyone got ideas on how we can help with the cyclical nature of this--but more importantly--the secular funk the US finds itself in?

[Ben Phillips @BenPhillips_ANU]

There are people who take quarterly labour productivity changes seriously. These are basically random numbers! Best not to. GDP itself not a lot better. (Seasonally adjusted shown). Longer term trends are interesting tho.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@SnarkyTrader Maybe we need to include mechanized processes in the data.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@LcpVan Also, can you plan a neighborhood that these boys might like better...

[Syntheticus Humanitus @TheChaosWeeber]

I used to live there, its isolated and kind of shit

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@LcpVan I know, and you have to be deep into your career as a UBC administrator to earn $300K/yr. And by then, housing isn't even an issue for you.

As my mom used to always say: "Vancouver est chère". If she only knew what chère means today.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@LcpVan Who do you predict will pick up the tab going forward?

Can't believe industry has been putting up with this for as long as it has.

Anybody running for office there on the slogan, "we all have to chip in to pay for growth"

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@LcpVan Still, I find this chart impressive, and yes projects are taking longer to complete.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@LcpVan You're right on all fronts.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@oakridge604 I support the completion of the grocery store in my neighborhood.

[Pierre @PHfloor]

Walkable Vancouver with a grocery store, parking for grocery store patrons and occupant of the apartments if they choose to own are car.

All packaged into one. 🤯

[The City Mentor @TheCityMentor]

"Walkable city" doesn't necessarily mean car-free

But a key feature of walkable cities is that you can live next to or above a grocery store

And if you do, why would you need to drive?

[Pierre @PHfloor]

@oakridge604 Brutal...

Have you considered moving?