Phurichai R

Tinker, tailor, soldier, central banker.

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

News-based sentiment indices built with LLMs closely track hard-data benchmarks, uncover growth and inflation drivers, and improve forecasting performance
https://t.co/0T8PIPE0Dc

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

Indirect effects through exchange rate shifts, supply chain disruptions and heightened uncertainty could further exacerbate the macroeconomic effects of tariffs.
https://t.co/pnv4XlEGK8

#BISBulletin

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

Tariffs affect the global economy most directly through trade, threatening to lower output growth globally and raise inflation in some cases.
https://t.co/pnv4XlEGK8

#BISBulletin

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

A new monetary policy conditions index integrates both conventional and unconventional policy tools. It consistently measures #MonetaryPolicy over time and across regimes, capturing the role of #BalanceSheets even beyond the effective lower bound. https://t.co/a5kSaGwmzD

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

Exchange rates move the real economy via many channels. New firm-level evidence reveals that near term, it’s firm cash flows – not trade competitiveness – due to sticky dollar pricing. This implies that invoicing-weighted FX matters more than trade weights https://t.co/lbaL7iYw0f

[VoxEU @voxeu]

A #CBDC interest rate rule tied to credit effectively stabilises real and financial activity, reducing volatilities in capital flows and exchange rates.
M Kumhof, @marco_pinchetti @CFMUK @bankofengland, @phurichai @bankofthailand, @asokol_econ @economics
https://t.co/v3hfgxw56S

[Marco Pinchetti @marco_pinchetti]

How can central banks use CBDCs as a stabilisation tool, to manage business cycle and capital flow volatility? We explain it in a recent VoxEU column with Michael Kumhof, Andrej Sokol
@asokol_econ, and Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul
@phurichai. Paper here: https://t.co/8vw32fY4s9

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

#CBDCs could provide central banks with a new policy tool to counteract shocks, particularly those with a financial origin https://t.co/1SH5rDhHJI

[Hyun Song Shin @HyunSongShin]

Inspired by the debate between @nfergus and @adam_tooze on the current state of globalisation, I devoted my lecture at Columbia this week to take the pulse on global value chains:

"Global value chains under the shadow of Covid"

https://t.co/Mc1KjWLKMQ

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

Looking ahead, a continued easing in #Bottlenecks should reduce pressure on #Inflation but risks of more protracted #Bottlenecks or new shocks cannot be ruled out #Bottlenecks or new shocks cannot be ruled out #BISBulletin https://t.co/CGfvGeRMo1

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

The intricacy of global production networks is one reason #Bottlenecks have taken so long to ease. High market concentration, eg in the chip industry, is another contributing factor #BISBulletin https://t.co/CGfvGeRMo1

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

Global #SupplyChain disruptions have been easing slowly, but some #Bottlenecks remain #BISBulletin https://t.co/CGfvGeRMo1

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

🎙️ What will global growth look like once the disruptions of the #Covid19 pandemic come to an end? Find out in the latest BISness podcast with economist @Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul and host @KristaMHughes #podcast https://t.co/gfM76yPfDu

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

House prices kept rising through the pandemic in advanced economies, breaking with typical post-recession patterns. Various factors have been supporting demand, but pose risks if they reverse #HousePrices #MonetaryPolicy #BISBulletin https://t.co/vsHKcOyG7N

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

#HousePrices were buoyed in the period through 2021 by rapid economic recovery, fiscal support and negative real interest rates. Support also came from pandemic-induced demand for space, supply constraints and investor demand #MonetaryPolicy #BISBulletin https://t.co/vsHKcOyG7N

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

How #MonetaryPolicy responds to inflation will be relevant when assessing #HousingMarket risks. Moderate rate hikes could help dampen speculative demand #BISBulletin https://t.co/vsHKcOh5gf

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

The BIS Quarterly Review is out https://t.co/BEevD7JBZu

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

#MonetaryPolicy may play a role in the secular decline of real #InterestRates, argue Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul @phurichai and a co-author. The private sector and #CentralBank misinterpret the effects of their own actions, staring into a "hall of mirrors" https://t.co/dYmsxkofq4

[Hyun Song Shin @HyunSongShin]

Bottlenecks started out as disruptions to supply, but they have morphed into something more

Key point to bear in mind: in aggregate at least, supply has caught up to pre-pandemic levels in key sectors like semi-conductors as well as in raw materials and shipping

[Hyun Song Shin @HyunSongShin]

The inflation surge has brought #bottlenecks under the spotlight

Today's #BIS_Bulletin takes a closer look at what's going on and what we might encounter going forward

A short thread follows
https://t.co/0NjE72Pd1l