Paul Warner

Frmr. Republican. Believer in the corrupting force of power and money. Pragmatism, evidence, and principle over ideology. Christian. Dog-lover and Vizsla owner.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

How long will Trump supporters be able to sustain their faux-surprise?

"I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!"

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@Water46333865 @A_May_MD If it’s a really good drug, like this one, a bad team can only screw it up so much. You have educated and excited prescribers driving demand.

Also true the other way - really good teams can’t salvage a drug with limited benefit.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@btcbabey @A_May_MD They have a timing problem now. Crohn’s doesn’t read out until relatively shortly before they launch in UC. So if someone buys them after Crohn’s data, a lot of money was somewhat wasted on commercialization efforts. But I suspect $9B CVRs are also a hard sell.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@btcbabey @A_May_MD That would be a massive CVR. What’s the value split on UC vs Crohn’s for this asset? I could be wrong here, but that might be one of the biggest CVRs in history?

[Hunter Biden @HunterBiden]

Yes I sold paintings. About $225,000 a year over four years. The whole of my business while my father was President. Congress investigated it.

If you’re outraged about that, where is all your outrage now?

Kushner's Affinity Partners holds roughly $5 to $6 billion. Close to 99% of it comes from foreign sovereign wealth funds. Saudi Arabia. The UAE. Qatar. Over $90M in fees annually.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@DoodadDoctor @stockflixx @princetongb Gotcha. And what’s your view now?

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@VogonAmbassador @adamfeuerstein LOL, he’s just pointing out some wisdom. There are numerous cases where people expected positive results because an oncology study was delayed. Presumably because people in the active arm were doing better. I myself have been burned on one of these cases. It’s a fact.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@DoodadDoctor @stockflixx @princetongb Why are you short $CAPR? I’ve got a lot riding on it, so I’m genuinely curious.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@LACaldwellDC They’re perplexed? I’m perplexed how they can be this hopelessly dim.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@LPDonovan This is performative. You can’t really be this stupid.

Trump is politicizing this momentous anniversary. It’s obvious and it’s gross.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@exfatloss @maxmarchione LOL, now the true colors come out. Ignorant, ill-informed, arrogant, childish, and rude.

Good luck changing the world with n=1 is king. I’m sure it will totally be successful. It’s so well-reasoned.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@exfatloss @maxmarchione Seems you don’t accept basic logical principles. It’s all starting to make more sense.

People are obese because of studies? LOL.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@baseballcrank @TacosFromGod The court *is* packed. With a bunch of entitled and detached right-wingers running roughshod over the Constitution and legislatures nationwide.

Spare me.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@norapeterson_1 @ivanburazin Yes, everyone should eat less and eat healthier. Everyone knows this. It’s not a knowledge problem. It is a psychological and physiological behavior change problem. When you understand that, you realize begging people to eat better just doesn’t work for most people.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@exfatloss @maxmarchione The anecdotal evidence fallacy (or anecdotal fallacy) is a logical error that occurs when someone uses a personal story, isolated exception, or unrepresentative example as proof for a broad, general claim.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@exfatloss @maxmarchione Looking at your blog, it absolutely looks like you are restricting calories. Show me studies that back up your claims. Also show me studies that your approach is scalable across the US population.

You keep making the same basic logical fallacy…

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@mimi_teaching @agingroy Sure, it’s theoretically possible. Nobody has ever said otherwise.

But the vast majority won’t and even if they do for a short time, it’s not sustainable. Behavior change is hard!

I hear this argument so often, and it’s really bad.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@exfatloss @maxmarchione Listen to what you are saying! “Listen to my anecdotal and exceptional experience rather than generations of experts and extensive studies”. You’re rejecting the scientific method and embracing a whole list of basic logical fallacies.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@exfatloss @maxmarchione Again, claiming behavioral change is easy is un-serious. This has been studied extensively, and it’s just not the case. Sure, it can happen, and well-designed programs help. But the evidence is overwhelming that it is anything but easy. Especially at scale acrosss society.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@exfatloss @maxmarchione Is that because they are stupid and uninformed? Or because behavioral change is very, very hard?

If you have adopted a healthy diet, that’s awesome. I’m happy for you. Not a scalable solution.

The best answer available to us is GLP-1s. Medicine willpower.

[Paul Warner @phwarner]

@exfatloss @maxmarchione LOL, you don’t sound like you care. If you did, you’d definitely care about what scientists think and what the evidence of well-designed studies say. That you lean on anecdote and silly seed oil theories makes it clear the actual evidence and reality is irrelevant to you.