Chantal Reed @phylliscottage - Twitter Profile

Chantal Reed @phylliscottage

19 days ago

@vintage831 @ASTS_SpaceMob Thats it!

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Leo Edge

@LeoCapital_01

28 days ago

$ASTS closed at $68 today. Here's my clear eyed take on it. First, the most important fact: this is the ENTIRE space sector, not ASTS. Of 28 space stocks that ran into the SpaceX IPO, only SpaceX itself and ONE other are up since. The whole group is down ~17% on average. Virgin Galactic, Rocket Lab, Redwire, Planet, Firefly - all crushed. There's a mechanical reason the whole sector is bleeding that most people miss: space stocks are being used as the short hedge against SpaceX. $SPCX has a tiny 4.2% float - almost impossible to short directly. So funds wanting to bet against an overvalued SpaceX short the liquid public space names instead. Jefferies was reportedly courting exactly these SpaceX bears. That means ASTS is getting sold not on its own merits, but as a proxy hedge against a completely different company. You're being shorted as someone else's insurance policy. So when I see accounts taking victory laps, claiming they "called the ASTS bear thesis" and it's "overvalued, blah blah" - let's be honest about what happened. They didn't call an ASTS-specific top. They got lucky riding a sector-wide unwind, amplified by funds shorting the whole basket to hedge SpaceX. Calling the tide going out isn't the same as calling which boat is leaking. What's actually driving it: SpaceX itself. SPCX peaked at $225 on June 16 and has since crashed 31% - $620B in market cap erased in four sessions, down 16% in a single day Monday. When the flagship craters on its own overvaluation (104.7x sales, -45% margins, Morningstar fair value $63), and funds are shorting the sector to hedge it, the entire basket gets dragged down. ASTS is collateral damage in someone else's trade. Here's what everyone shorting the stock is missing: while the stock fell, ASTS the BUSINESS had one of its best execution stretches yet. BB8-10 launched and reached orbit. BB11-13 confirmed for August - a second Block 2 batch in ~8 weeks. The Rakuten JV in Japan. BB37 in production. Radar testing for the Space Force. The execution has been relentless. The stock and the business are telling completely different stories right now. And notice who's showing up at these levels - InvestorPlace & Navellier's team - flipping to "buy the dip" on the exact names the bears are declaring dead. Smart money circles when sentiment capitulates. The long-term thesis hasn't moved an inch: spectrum moat, carrier JVs, sovereignty tailwind, defense pipeline, a constellation actively deploying. None of that changed because SpaceX's IPO bubble deflated and funds used the sector as a hedge. This is noise. Painful noise, but noise. I won't pretend red doesn't hurt - it does. But I separate the tape from the business, and the business is executing better than the chart suggests by a mile. Sectors wash out. Then the names that actually execute separate from the ones that don't. I know which one I'm holding through it.. $ASTS 🛰️

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