Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹

Private investor. Trading derivatives. ECB watcher. Sometimes I “recycle” junk bonds.

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

It's all about Physics
Lufthansa spot – “Sempre ospiti, mai solo passeggeri”

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

@biancoresearch Using human shields, coercing or using civilians to protect military targets from attack, is a defined war crime under international law (Rome Statute)

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

@jeuasommenulle According to my numbers, the total capital ratio is below the requirement

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

@jeuasommenulle 🤣

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

@marcodifonzo Chissà come mai…

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

🌮🌮🌮
Trump's team game planning for potential Iran peace talks https://t.co/F8a2d5p144

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

@RyanDetrick Yep!

[George Noble @gnoble79]

In 45 years on Wall Street, I've never seen anything like this.

Sam Altman just convinced 3 of the world's smartest investors to fund his losses.

$110 billion. But ZERO profit in sight.

The largest private funding round in history.

Let me explain why this is borderline criminal & what you have to understand as an investor:

Amazon. Nvidia. SoftBank.

3 of the world's most sophisticated investors just handed OpenAI $110 billion at an $840 billion valuation.

That's more than double the $40 billion OpenAI raised last year.

For context: all US venture capital combined invested $170 billion into American startups in all of 2023.

Altman just raised 65% of that. Alone. In one round.

And the company STILL isn't profitable.

Let's look at the actual numbers:

OpenAI burned $8 billion in 2025. They project burning $17 billion in 2026. $35 billion in 2027. $47 billion in 2028.

Cumulative losses before any projected path to profitability: over $115 billion.

Meanwhile, Amazon's $50 billion comes with strings attached. $35 billion is contingent on OpenAI either achieving AGI or completing its IPO by year end.

Read that again.

$35 billion is conditioned on ACHIEVING AGI.

They're literally writing checks against a scientific breakthrough that may not happen on any predictable timeline.

This is what peak cycle financing looks like.

The circular logic every investor should understand:

Amazon invests $50 billion in OpenAI.

OpenAI commits to spending $100 billion on Amazon Web Services.

Nvidia invests $30 billion.

OpenAI commits to buying 3 gigawatts of Nvidia compute.

These aren't arms-length investments. They're vendor financing dressed up as venture capital.

Amazon and Nvidia are essentially paying OpenAI to buy their own products.

The $840 billion valuation prices in a future that doesn't exist yet.

At $13 billion in 2025 revenue, that's 65x revenue.

Even in 2021 - the most speculative bubble in recent tech history - Snowflake peaked at 50-80x revenue.

And Snowflake was actually profitable.

J.P. Morgan calculates that the AI industry needs $650 billion in annual revenue just to generate a 10% return on total infrastructure buildout.

The entire industry currently generates a fraction of that.

I've seen cycles my entire 45-year career.

The 1980s defense build-up. The dot-com bubble. The 2008 mortgage machine.

The pattern is always the same:

When the biggest players start financing each other's growth through circular investment structures, you're not witnessing a revolution...

You're watching the LAST PHASE of a credit cycle.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said OpenAI is going to be "one of the very big winners long term."

Maybe.

But $840 billion assumes they've already won.

Stock prices follow earnings. Always have. Always will.

And right now, OpenAI's earnings are deeply, structurally, massively negative.

The IPO is coming. The hype will peak. And the question every serious investor needs to answer is simple:

At what price does this actually make sense?

Sam Altman doesn’t know either - he just keeps raising money faster than he can burn it.

This can’t end well.

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

🇦🇷🇺🇸

[Javier Milei @JMilei]

Thank you @secscottbessent for your strong support for Argentina, and thank you President Donald Trump @realDonaldTrump for your vision and powerful leadership. Together, as the closest of allies, we will make a hemisphere of economic freedom and prosperity. We will work hard every day to provide opportunity for our people.

Cc: @Potus

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

#MakeArgentinaGreatAgain

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

The @USTreasury has concluded 4 days of intensive meetings with Minister @LuisCaputoAR and his team in DC. We discussed Argentina’s strong economic fundamentals, including structural changes already underway that will generate significant dollar-denominated exports and foreign exchange reserves.

Argentina faces a moment of acute illiquidity. The international community – including @IMFNews – is unified behind Argentina and its prudent fiscal strategy, but only the United States can act swiftly. And act we will.

To that end, today we directly purchased Argentine pesos.

Additionally, we have finalized a $20 billion currency swap framework with Argentina’s central bank. The U.S. Treasury is prepared, immediately, to take whatever exceptional measures are warranted to provide stability to markets.

I emphasized to Minister Caputo that @POTUS @realDonaldTrump’s America First economic leadership is committed to strengthening our allies who welcome fair trade and American investment.

I continue to hear from American business leaders who, thanks to President Milei’s leadership, are eager to tie the American and Argentine economies more closely together. The Trump administration is resolute in our support for allies of the United States, and to that end we also discussed Argentina’s investment incentives, and U.S. tools to powerfully support investment in our strategic partners.

Minister Caputo informed me of his close coordination with the IMF on Argentina’s commitments under its program. Argentina’s policies, when anchored on fiscal discipline, are sound. Its exchange rate band remains fit for purpose.

We reviewed the broad political consensus in Argentina for the second half of President @JMilei’s term. I was encouraged by their focus on achieving fiscally sound economic freedom for the people of Argentina via lower taxes, higher investment, private sector job creation, and partnering with allies. As Argentina lifts the dead weight of the state and stops spending into inflation, great things are possible.

The success of Argentina’s reform agenda is of systemic importance, and a strong, stable Argentina which helps anchor a prosperous Western Hemisphere is in the strategic interest of the United States. Their success should be a bipartisan priority.

I look forward to the meeting between President Trump and President Milei on October 14, and to seeing Minister Caputo again on the margins of the IMF Annual Meetings.

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

Il figlio di Liliana Segre: «Francesca Albanese agisce più da militante che da giurista. È ossessionata da mia madre» https://t.co/eJeAalnT3M

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

How do say in Spanish Argentina is our 51st star? 🇦🇷🇺🇸

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

Yesterday, @POTUS and I spoke extensively with President @JMilei and his senior team in New York.  As President Trump has stated, we stand ready to do what is needed to support Argentina and the Argentine people.

Under President Milei, Argentina has taken important strides toward stabilization. He has achieved impressive fiscal consolidation and a broad liberalization of prices and restrictive regulations, laying the foundation for Argentina’s historic return to prosperity.
The @USTreasury stands ready to purchase Argentina’s USD bonds and will do so as conditions warrant. We are also prepared to deliver significant stand-by credit via the Exchange Stabilization Fund, and we have been in active discussions with President Milei’s team to do so.

The Treasury is currently in negotiations with Argentine officials for a $20 billion swap line with the Central Bank. We are working in close coordination with the Argentine government to prevent excessive volatility.

In addition, the United States stands ready to purchase secondary or primary government debt and we are working with the Argentine government to end the tax holiday for commodity producers converting foreign exchange.

Argentina has the tools to defeat speculators, including those who seek to destabilize Argentina’s markets for political objectives. I have also been in touch with numerous US companies who intend to make substantial foreign direct investments in Argentina multiple sectors in the event of a positive election outcome.

The Trump Administration is resolute in our support for allies of the United States, and President Trump has given President Milei a rare endorsement of a foreign official, showing his confidence in his government’s economic plans and the geopolitical strategic importance of the relationship between the United States and Argentina. Immediately after the election, we will start working with the Argentine government on its principal repayments.

I will be watching developments closely, and the Treasury remains fully prepared to do what is necessary.

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

How do you say Offshore Quantitive Easing in Spanish/Argentinian? 🇺🇸🇦🇷

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

Argentina is a systemically important U.S. ally in Latin America, and the @USTreasury stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina.

All options for stabilization are on the table. 1/4

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

This is just the last piece of a sequence that leads to the uselessness of the data itself. #NonFarmPayroll #NFP

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

BLS REPORTS TECHNICAL ISSUES AHEAD OF JOBS DATA

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its data retrieval tools are down ahead of the September 5 jobs report release at 8:30 a.m. ET. It hasn’t indicated whether the outage will delay publication.

The employment report is one of the most closely watched economic indicators, shaping markets and Fed policy

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

What cut(s)? #FED

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

US IMPORT PRICES MOM ACTUAL 0.4% (FORECAST 0.1%, PREVIOUS 0.1%) $MACRO

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

@TradingThomas3 Biden economy

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

@Fullcarry RIP 25bps too. Fed should hike (I am serious)

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

What cut(s)? #FED

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

*US JULY PRODUCER PRICES RISE 3.3% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%
*US JULY PRODUCER PRICES RISE 0.9% M/M; EST. +0.2%

*US JULY CORE PPI RISES 0.9% M/M; EST. +0.2%
*US JULY CORE PPI RISES 3.7% Y/Y; EST. +2.9%

[Physicaccio 🇪🇺🇮🇹 @physicaccio]

I think US government bonds can no longer be considered risk-free. I believe EGBs deserve that status.