Piero Cingari

Markets. Macro. Geopolitics. | Writer @Benzinga | Founder @CountryETF | Connecting the dots before the crowd does.

[PubAffairs EU Debates, News & Opinions 🇪🇺 @PubAffairsEU]

#Eurozone: #ECB hostage to oil prices? #Lagarde leaves door open for a September hike, by @pierocingari | Euronews
https://t.co/4Sh299VrP6

[Unofficial Trump on X @trump_repost]

Liberty has prevailed here because of the culture and the character of the people who declared it, defended it, and preserved it—We reach a milestone like no other and celebrate with joyful hearts and soaring spirits...

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

For the record.

The Market Has Already Moved On

A leadership change is already
underway, but most investors are still clinging to the last trade. Everyone is crowded into semiconductors and memory, propped up by passive flows and a sell-side still extrapolating an era of outsized earnings surprises that is now behind us. The big earnings revision cycle in semiconductors and AI power is over.

The bottleneck trade is crowded and over-owned, and that playbook is exhausted. Semis now represent 20% of the S&P 500. A period of digestion is needed.

The market is broadening. Beneath the surface, the median stock is delivering double-digit earnings growth, with second-quarter earnings tracking toward 25% year-over-year. This is a rolling recovery, not a narrow AI story.

The AI cycle is not over, but it is evolving. Hyperscalers may be near a bottom and are beginning to convert capex into revenue, extending the cycle. But the bottleneck trade, owning semiconductors and AI Power, is no longer sufficient.

The era of massive upside earnings surprises is over IMHO

These stocks are crowded, expectations are elevated, and future earnings beats are unlikely to surprise as they have.

Leadership is rotating. Equal-weight indices, small caps, and domestic cyclicals are gaining traction, supported by improving earnings and still-muted positioning. Policy is reinforcing the shift, with a more Hamiltonian focus on domestic investment and productive capital.
Liquidity is also changing. Credit creation is moving from the Fed to the private sector, with bank deregulation playing a key role.

This is a more selective regime.
Investors can wait, or adapt. The market has already decided.

[Piero Cingari @pierocingari]

🚨 The market is no longer debating whether the Fed will hike — only when.

After May payrolls crushed expectations (172K vs. 85K est.) and inflation accelerated to 3.8%, rate-hike odds have surged.

📈 Fed funds futures now price:
• 96% chance of at least one hike by Dec. 2026
• 64% chance of another hike by July 2027

The "higher for longer" narrative just got a lot longer.

[Country ETF Tracker @CountryEtf]

Austria's $EWO ETF: +15.85% YTD. 9th best country globally.

One company explains it: AT&S — makes IC substrates for AI chip packaging. Up +373% YTD.

4.9% of the fund. Responsible for 28% of its return.

Europe's only top-5 global IC substrate manufacturer. Nobody is talking about this.

Full story → [link in comments] #AI #ETF

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Gold is sitting right at its 200-day moving average.

Yes, the last time we were here turned out to be a great buying opportunity…. but I try not to get too fixated on technical levels alone.

What stands out to me is how dramatically sentiment has shifted.

Just a few months ago, gold was one of the market’s favorite trades.

Today, it feels almost completely forgotten.

Not to steal from Buffett, but I'm starting to get greedy while others are becoming fearful.

https://t.co/P4sfxoqBM9

[Country ETF Tracker @CountryEtf]

🌍 The U.S. stock market isn't even in the Top 10.

Over the last 12 months, the S&P 500 $SPY returned +28.2% — strong, but only enough for 20th place among country ETFs.

Here are the world's best-performing country ETFs:

🔟 Turkey $TUR 🇹🇷 +33.5%
9️⃣ Greece $GREK 🇬🇷 +33.8%
8️⃣ Thailand $THD 🇹🇭 +38.2%
7️⃣ Austria $EWO 🇦🇹 +40.4%
6️⃣ Finland $EFNL 🇫🇮 +41.5%
5️⃣ Colombia $COLO 🇨🇴 +44.0%
4️⃣ Israel $EIS 🇮🇱 +55.3%
3️⃣ Peru $EPU 🇵🇪 +80.6%
2️⃣ Taiwan $EWT 🇹🇼 +102.7%
1️⃣ South Korea $EWY 🇰🇷 +247.5% 🚀
The AI boom made headlines in Silicon Valley.
The biggest stock market winner was Seoul.

📊 Want the full ranking of 50+ country ETFs? Link in comments 👇

#ETFs #Investing #Stocks #AI #SouthKorea #Taiwan #SP500 #Markets

[Piero Cingari @pierocingari]

The S&P 500 has closed higher 9 sessions in a row.

A 10th would mark the rarest streak since September 1995 — just 8 times in 55 years.

After those 8 → 12M avg +2.14% vs +9.08% normal. 6M avg −0.7% vs +4.5% normal.

A streak this hot rarely keeps paying above-than-average returns.

Except for 1995: here's why --> https://t.co/e6txu9GgZx

@Benzinga

[Country ETF Tracker @CountryEtf]

Colombia's $COLO ETF is up +8.8% today — best day since March 2020.

Why? Right-wing outsider De la Espriella won the first round.

Runoff vs Petro's candidate on June 21.

Colo trades at 8.85x forward P/E – a sharp discount to world equities – and 6.76% yield, among the highest globally.

Markets asking: is this the next Milei trade?

Full breakdown → in comments #Colombia #COLO

[Country ETF Tracker @CountryEtf]

🚨 BREAKING: iShares South Korea ETF $EWY jumped 9.7% today, pushing its 2026 gain above 100%

With still 7 months left, that's simply insane!

Top-performing country ETFs in 2026 so far:

🇰🇷 South Korea $EWY +105.5%
🇹🇼 Taiwan $EWT +60.6%
🇳🇴 Norway $ENOR +30.9%
🇮🇱 Israel $EIS +24.6%
🇹🇭 Thailand $THD +22.0%
🇫🇮 Finland $EFNL +21.3%
🇳🇱 Netherlands $EWN +17.8%
🇵🇪 Peru $EPU +16.9%
🇦🇹 Austria $EWO +16.0%
🇯🇵 Japan $EWJ +14.9%

[Country ETF Tracker @CountryEtf]

Europe's Hidden AI Winner? Why The Netherlands Is Starting To Look Like South Korea

The Netherlands has become the South Korea of Europe.

4 Dutch semiconductor stocks explain 92% of EWN's entire 2026 return.

Link of the story in comments 👇

[Piero Cingari @pierocingari]

🚨 30-Year Treasury Yields Hit 19-Year Highs

The bond market just delivered the loudest warning since 2007.

Will it be enough to stop the AI-driven chip rally?

[Piero Cingari @pierocingari]

https://t.co/Rr3z0pasMX

[Piero Cingari @pierocingari]

🚨 ‼️ BofA's Hartnett Says $SOXX Is Trading Like French Stocks At The Peak Of The 1700's Mississippi Bubble

The warning comes as the SOXX has staged a near-vertical rally, fueled by relentless AI optimism, massive capex spending and momentum-driven inflows.

Link to the full story in comments.

@Benzinga

[Piero Cingari @pierocingari]

🚨 BofA's Michael Hartnett just compared the $SOXX rally to the 1720 Mississippi bubble.

Semis now trade 62% above their 200-day moving average → in 300+ years of data, only France 1720 (73%) and the Nasdaq in March 2000 (55%) ever got here.

Both ended the same way.

[Piero Cingari @pierocingari]

🚨 A Fed rate hike is now more likely than not by December 2026.

CME FedWatch — implied probability of the 3.75-4.00 band:

→ Sep 2026: 17%
→ Oct 2026: 32.5%
→ Dec 2026: 56.4%
→ Mar 2027: 96.7%

[Piero Cingari @pierocingari]

🚨 Time to rethink the Fed rate path.

April CPI landed at 3.8%, the hottest reading since May 2023. Core inflation climbed to 2.8%, also topping estimates.

This is no longer just energy. Services ex-shelter — the Fed's favorite gauge — re-accelerated to 0.45% MoM.

The disinflation trade is dead.

The next Fed move might be a hike, not a cut.

https://t.co/0dqngc8oFk

@Benzinga

[Piero Cingari @pierocingari]

@KobeissiLetter What's the ticker on TradingView?

[Piero Cingari @pierocingari]

Jordi Visser shared some intriguing thoughts on how he sees the AI trade moving forward from chipmakers to other beneficiaries of what he calls the "Benchmark Arbitrage."

Micron $MU and memory stocks like $SNDK have already sent a loud message.
Who's next on getting the marginal dollar from hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta? 👇

https://t.co/y29pgT3lta

"Your margin was my opportunity. Your CapEx is my opportunity."

@jvisserlabs @Benzinga