pierregas

Tweet about what I love ❤️ football ⚽️ investment in equities and digital asset 📈 running 👟 travel 🧳 cafe ☕️

[pierregas @pierregas]

@insane_analyst Totally true

[pierregas @pierregas]

Last night was tough tough situation for every AI investors.

[pierregas @pierregas]

@bot @bot anything to do to improve our routine with this update

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

So on optical vs. photonics... Memory like $MU / $SKHY is in it's current supercycle.

-> RBC channel checks for example projects 80-100% HBM ASP hikes for 2027.

-> Per $NVDA ER, Hyperscaler capex goes up in 2027. Then you have 68% of hyperscaler capex per Trendforce going to DRAM/NAND.

-> 50-70% for next 3-5 years already allocated toward LTAs.

So supercycle is here... demand visibility is high and the price hikes are still ongoing.

As photonics like $SMTC to $AAOI, I expect to cook heavily in 2027 since we're already seeing widespread optical shortages in 2026.

Plus, you're going from $67.7B in 2026 (per GS) to $131.4B TAM in 2027 for optical modules...

Which impacts the DSPs/TIAs/lasers/fiber suppliers before CPO scale up really takes off in 2028.

I don't think we'll ever see the same scale of memory price hikes, but I do think there's a lot room for more for MC growth in optical supply chains (given smaller starting point eg. $1B CW laser supplier vs $1T memory maker).

But still there's room for price hikes on laser content (eg. $15–$20 for 4 70 mW lasers per GS note) since starting point is really cheap... and one component, like cheap InP substrates can break hundreds of billions worth of supply chains downstream.

We're already seeing laser price hikes tho from CIOE channel checks confirmed by both Innolight / $SIVE from the Serenity's follower channel checks.

So entering uncharted territory.

TLDR: Messy thought but, memory has near term earnings power, midst of current supercycle.

The next "memory" ASP hikes I'm seeing is clearly legacy memory (DDR2/DDR3/SLC NAND) from cascading bottlenecks. It just looks to be an extension of the memory theme.

Maybe MLCC looks similar in terms of earlier cycles.

If we were to track supercycle impact on the supply chain in the space...

I'm confident next thematic one looks to be photonics entering 2027.

[pierregas @pierregas]

ซึ่งก่อนหน้านี้ถ้าเกิดรูปแบบนี้ขึ้น หุ้นกลุ่มเหล่านี้โดดลงก่อนเลย

มองได้หลายมุมว่า rotation ที่เกิดขึ้นก่อนหน้านี้ ต้องเริ่มวนกลับมา growth แล้ว เพราะว่า valuation ของกลุ่มอื่นก็เริ่มตึง

รวมถึงเริ่มมีข่าวว่าการที่เศรษฐกิจแข็งแกร่ง ทำให้ secular AI Capex จะมีต่อไป

[pierregas @pierregas]

จุดกลับตัวของหุ้นกลุ่มเซมิอาจจะเริ่มขึ้นแล้วเมื่อคืน หลังจากที่

- Non farm payroll ออกมาดีกว่าคาด
- Bond yield สหรัฐฯ ขึ้นต่อ

ทั้งหมดนี้ทำให้ โอกาสการขึ้นดอกเบี้ยของเฟด เกิดเร็วขึ้น

ซึ่งไม่ดีต่อหุ้น growth หุ้น small cap
แต่เมื่อคืนหุ้นเซมิกลับบวกแรง (1/2)

[pierregas @pierregas]

@psvit ผมเห็นถึงความโตขึ้นของแต่ละ model ที่ผ่านการเทรน การด่า รับ feedback จนเด๋วนี้ตอบแล้วไม่รุ้จะว่าอะไร 55
Poke AI ก็เป็นอีกอันที่คุยสนุกครับ เหมือนเพื่อนเลย

[pierregas @pierregas]

@BrentfordHive Money ball’s GOAT

[pierregas @pierregas]

Memory memory memory

[pierregas @pierregas]

Single digit multiple doesn’t justify at all after all of this 😮‍💨😮‍💨

[Jukan @jukan05]

BofA’s Vivek Arya made an excellent point, which I’d like to share.

Is open-source AI bearish for memory?

Closed models amortize global demand across shared HBM pools concentrated in a handful of data centers, whereas open models create a new memory footprint with every deployment. If 10,000 companies self-host the same open model, the model weights must be replicated across 10,000 separate HBM pools, with each deployment also requiring its own KV cache. As 128K–1M token contexts become commonplace in 2026, the KV cache alone can exceed 40GB per active session.

Low-cost Chinese APIs drive greater inference demand, broader enterprise self-hosting, and more memory sockets worldwide. In short, closed models concentrate memory demand, while open models multiply it.

[pierregas @pierregas]

Once deleveraging process ends,
hyperscalers keep raising their guidance, Cramer tell investors to be careful with tech position.

Then….

[pierregas @pierregas]

🤯🤯

[Jukan @jukan05]

This is absolutely insane lol. This is South Korea’s DRAM unit-price data for July 1–20, and the upward momentum is accelerating even further.

[pierregas @pierregas]

ขอเถอะคนนี้

[David Ornstein @David_Ornstein]

🚨 Youri Tielemans move from Aston Villa to Manchester United through £35m release clause in midfielder’s contract. #AVFC had no wish to sell + offered new deal but left with little choice due to mechanism & #MUFC set to proceed on transfer @TheAthleticFC https://t.co/KbWwD1jxov

[Sky Sports News @SkySportsNews]

🗣️ "I learned a lot, I made some mistakes, and I am sorry for that."

Ruben Amorim apologises to Manchester United fans after he was dismissed by the club in January following 14 months at Old Trafford.

[pierregas @pierregas]

Bring back the trophy brooooooo

[England @England]

John Stones 🕺😂

The energy in the changing room last night 🔥

[pierregas @pierregas]

What a night with Semiconductor stocks ! 2nd day of bloodbath, still see plenty of flooding in negative headlines

[pierregas @pierregas]

@psvit ช่วงนี้ข่าวเรื่อง memory ค่อนข้างนัวเนียเลยทีเดียว

[pierregas @pierregas]

@psind707 น่าจะใช่ครับ