![Domahhhh's tweet photo. A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 -- the person or entity -- who is singlehandedly rocketing up the price of Trump on prediction markets around the world.
Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive guy! We'll get back to that.
I'll also explain that large bettors unloading millions on Republicans right before election day is nothing new under the sun.
- BIG TRUMP PRICE MOVES -
Trump has hit 60% to win, and 36% to win the popular vote. Both prices now have at least a 5% Fredi premium (maybe more like 8%? either way, just a guess). So betting on Trump will be ~5% more expensive, and betting on Kamala will be ~5% less expensive due to a single trader.
Why is there a premium off a single trader? He's bet $25 million (and counting) -- all of it on Trump. He has dumped in a large portion of that in the past two weeks. And by wanting so much Trump in a short time span, he is skewing the supply/demand equation; there is nowhere near enough demand for that much Kamala at the current prices, so the price has to move a lot to accomodate the demand for Trump. And then the price moves on every market around the world as people arbitrage it.
How'd I get to $25m? Because Fredi is not just loading up his account and making bets. Fredi9999 is, I believe, creating new Polymarket accounts so it doesn't look like a single trader. Fredi9999 the OG account, second account PrincessCaro, third account Michie, and the most recent account Theo. Mark-to-market, the accounts have $28m in positions from those $25m in bets.
How are they connected? The accounts all receive very large deposits from Kraken (usually denominated as exactly $500k or $1m deposits), and immediately start betting on Trump everywhere (and only Trump, 0 interest in anything else on the site). Theo received a large deposit, and plowed it into Trump winning the popular vote, sending it from 26% to 39% in a few hours.
I pinged @fozzydiablo about these four accounts, who posted his findings here, showing patterns that definitely imply the same user is controlling all 4 accounts:
https://t.co/dSYfZgWefM
One interesting note is none of the accounts appear to receive deposits on weekends, which would suggest that the person is not necessarily crypto native and is wiring the money to Kraken from a bank. Why they're doing it piecemeal is anybody's guess.
- MONSIEUR WHALE? -
As far as WHO is betting $25 million on Trump -- all of the accounts are names or nicknames with no apparent geographic connection. You could maybe see a German connection in the names, or maybe Swiss as a melting pot.
But the real clues (or maybe misleading clues) came when Fredi and Michie both started commenting on the site, sometimes inexplicably silly comments that misunderstood basic statistical concepts or misspelled random words. Sometimes a lot of bravado about how confident they are that Trump will win and how badly the prices are wrong.
Small sample of comments below -- one where he suggests you can arbitrage Pennsylvania & the general election. And one where he implies each state is an uncorrelated independent event. You can see the uncommon spacing around punctuation which strongly implies a French speaker. The French also use ellipses much more than other languages utilize them.
Fredi uses a mix of British and American english in their comments, sometimes using the 'ou' in a word like favourite and sometimes dropping it. They called math "maths" which is the British version. All in all, AI thinks the writing/spelling/weird misspellings points to a Frenchman who has learned British English and spent time in America.
Or maybe it's all a LARP and somebody is just having fun pretending with all of this, trying to seem unsophisticated on purpose. Maybe it's connected to Elon or some other huge GOP megadonor. I have no idea, and it's a bit of a game to figure out what is going on here.
Maybe it's actually GCR despite GCR saying it's not him. GCR's guess is it is someone trying to send Bitcoin skyrocketing, which is as good an explanation as any (Bitcoin has skyrocketed along with Trump's odds).
Why do I care about this? Good question! It's important to know who you're betting against. Is this a super smart trading firm and I should be scared? Is this an idiot betting on what he wants to happen and I should be happy? Is this just a lame attempt to give the impression that Trump is winning by a lot with 0 other motives? It's hard to figure out what is going on here. Almost always the answer in similar situations is not some big conspiracy, and it's actually pretty simple. So my best guess is it is a wildly risky-loving uber-wealthy Frenchman who is pretty damn sure that Trump is going to win. But this is also a situation without precedent. $25m all-in on Trump is a massive, massive bet. A little bit of obfuscation in the accounts is also in play. There's undoubtedly some interesting story underlying all of this.
-FIRST CONTACT & J'ACCUSE! -
I responded to a Michie comment on the site and asked to talk with him.
After a few days, he acquiesced and created a brand new Discord account to talk with me. He joined the Polymarket discord and gave his biography for unclear reasons in a channel that no one uses.
I DMed him and some small talk ensued, initially about Trump, and he very quickly got annoyed that I thought Trump could win the popular vote and still lose (it's very unlikely, but not that far-fetched, and what I would consider by far the funniest outcome possible). He accused me of insulting his intelligence, etc. etc. Arrogant for no reason in particular.
So I just decided to ask him directly about the account connections. Not received well!
And his whole vibe was standoffish and rude, and I also called him out on it -- in what I thought was a very tame and teasing manner. Apparently not, because it quickly went to 100.
J'accuse! A racist in our midst! I've been found out. He then deleted his Discord account that he had created hours earlier. Pretty short temper for a guy with $25m on the line lol.
(Side note, I've been to France a few times and it's always been very pleasant, so I don't actually think French people are rude. Maybe he is from French-speaking Montreal, though, a city brimming with impossibly rude people).
Anyway, to cap off this bizarre encounter, ChatGPT definitely thinks this person is French now, because of his use of "And so ?" in the conversation which would correlate to "Et alors ?" a common phrase in French. It also took the ""What this tweet shouldl make me feel ?" as a bungled way of saying "Que devrais-je ressentir ?"
Whoever or whatever Fredi is, maybe a Frenchman betting a boatload or a Frenchman as the point man of some scheme, Fredi clearly wants it all to remain a mystery and doesn't have any patience for someone with an alternate view.
- CONSERVATIVES LOVE INACCURATE PREDICTION MARKETS -
Conservatives have a storied and varied relationship with prediction markets.
They are enamored and obsessed with the lore that nobody predicted Trump or Brexit, and the polls were all wrong (and they're right). This has become their raison d'etre in betting, and the events around which all bets on politics now rotate -- polls are cited when they agree, and polls are declared always wrong then they disagree. This interesting strategy of 'I can't be wrong' has had mixed results and some colossal embarrassments (like the 2022 "Red Wave" that never materialized and was very profitable to bet against).
I find that left-leaning folks are more analytical in their betting, and tend to worry that they're going to lose on a near constant basis.
But to the point here -- one single bettor ramming through huge bets to prop up a Republican presidential candidate has occurred twice before, back in the olden days.
I remember in 2008, I would stay up at all hours with one eye on Call of Duty and the other eye on the order book waiting for a single bettor to show up. In an instant, bids would come barreling in on McCain and push his price up massively. It was a feeding frenzy to see who could match him first, before he disappeared again. A brand-new-on-the-scene Nate Silver was noticing it and writing about it, and Paul Krugman wrote about it as well. The bettor probably flushed around $1m in bets down the drain on McCain:
https://t.co/9IApRSBUfy
And then again in 2012, there was a gigantic bettor buying Romney up that @rajivatbarnard wrote about. This time $4 million:
https://t.co/dtpWKQhzwW
Both times those people got BTFO. And if the point was to prop up the candidates, I don't think the price movements mattered a single iota to a single vote.
This doesn't mean that the $25m man Fredi will get BTFO, only that one person barreling in with huge bets pushing the odds around doesn't necessarily equate with specialized knowledge. It could just be a fool.
The odds are not reality, and the odds are probably not efficient. The odds will be wrong in predictable ways, but for most people including probably myself, the predictable way won't be apparent until the dust has settled. And then with the benefit of hindsight, it'll be forever obvious that of course [insert winner] was the smart bet because [insert reason]. Maybe Fredi has the answer already.
- FIN -
P.S. If you have any tips on who Fredi is, feel free to let me know!](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaBu4XnXUAADMJq.jpg)
![Domahhhh's tweet photo. A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 -- the person or entity -- who is singlehandedly rocketing up the price of Trump on prediction markets around the world.
Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive guy! We'll get back to that.
I'll also explain that large bettors unloading millions on Republicans right before election day is nothing new under the sun.
- BIG TRUMP PRICE MOVES -
Trump has hit 60% to win, and 36% to win the popular vote. Both prices now have at least a 5% Fredi premium (maybe more like 8%? either way, just a guess). So betting on Trump will be ~5% more expensive, and betting on Kamala will be ~5% less expensive due to a single trader.
Why is there a premium off a single trader? He's bet $25 million (and counting) -- all of it on Trump. He has dumped in a large portion of that in the past two weeks. And by wanting so much Trump in a short time span, he is skewing the supply/demand equation; there is nowhere near enough demand for that much Kamala at the current prices, so the price has to move a lot to accomodate the demand for Trump. And then the price moves on every market around the world as people arbitrage it.
How'd I get to $25m? Because Fredi is not just loading up his account and making bets. Fredi9999 is, I believe, creating new Polymarket accounts so it doesn't look like a single trader. Fredi9999 the OG account, second account PrincessCaro, third account Michie, and the most recent account Theo. Mark-to-market, the accounts have $28m in positions from those $25m in bets.
How are they connected? The accounts all receive very large deposits from Kraken (usually denominated as exactly $500k or $1m deposits), and immediately start betting on Trump everywhere (and only Trump, 0 interest in anything else on the site). Theo received a large deposit, and plowed it into Trump winning the popular vote, sending it from 26% to 39% in a few hours.
I pinged @fozzydiablo about these four accounts, who posted his findings here, showing patterns that definitely imply the same user is controlling all 4 accounts:
https://t.co/dSYfZgWefM
One interesting note is none of the accounts appear to receive deposits on weekends, which would suggest that the person is not necessarily crypto native and is wiring the money to Kraken from a bank. Why they're doing it piecemeal is anybody's guess.
- MONSIEUR WHALE? -
As far as WHO is betting $25 million on Trump -- all of the accounts are names or nicknames with no apparent geographic connection. You could maybe see a German connection in the names, or maybe Swiss as a melting pot.
But the real clues (or maybe misleading clues) came when Fredi and Michie both started commenting on the site, sometimes inexplicably silly comments that misunderstood basic statistical concepts or misspelled random words. Sometimes a lot of bravado about how confident they are that Trump will win and how badly the prices are wrong.
Small sample of comments below -- one where he suggests you can arbitrage Pennsylvania & the general election. And one where he implies each state is an uncorrelated independent event. You can see the uncommon spacing around punctuation which strongly implies a French speaker. The French also use ellipses much more than other languages utilize them.
Fredi uses a mix of British and American english in their comments, sometimes using the 'ou' in a word like favourite and sometimes dropping it. They called math "maths" which is the British version. All in all, AI thinks the writing/spelling/weird misspellings points to a Frenchman who has learned British English and spent time in America.
Or maybe it's all a LARP and somebody is just having fun pretending with all of this, trying to seem unsophisticated on purpose. Maybe it's connected to Elon or some other huge GOP megadonor. I have no idea, and it's a bit of a game to figure out what is going on here.
Maybe it's actually GCR despite GCR saying it's not him. GCR's guess is it is someone trying to send Bitcoin skyrocketing, which is as good an explanation as any (Bitcoin has skyrocketed along with Trump's odds).
Why do I care about this? Good question! It's important to know who you're betting against. Is this a super smart trading firm and I should be scared? Is this an idiot betting on what he wants to happen and I should be happy? Is this just a lame attempt to give the impression that Trump is winning by a lot with 0 other motives? It's hard to figure out what is going on here. Almost always the answer in similar situations is not some big conspiracy, and it's actually pretty simple. So my best guess is it is a wildly risky-loving uber-wealthy Frenchman who is pretty damn sure that Trump is going to win. But this is also a situation without precedent. $25m all-in on Trump is a massive, massive bet. A little bit of obfuscation in the accounts is also in play. There's undoubtedly some interesting story underlying all of this.
-FIRST CONTACT & J'ACCUSE! -
I responded to a Michie comment on the site and asked to talk with him.
After a few days, he acquiesced and created a brand new Discord account to talk with me. He joined the Polymarket discord and gave his biography for unclear reasons in a channel that no one uses.
I DMed him and some small talk ensued, initially about Trump, and he very quickly got annoyed that I thought Trump could win the popular vote and still lose (it's very unlikely, but not that far-fetched, and what I would consider by far the funniest outcome possible). He accused me of insulting his intelligence, etc. etc. Arrogant for no reason in particular.
So I just decided to ask him directly about the account connections. Not received well!
And his whole vibe was standoffish and rude, and I also called him out on it -- in what I thought was a very tame and teasing manner. Apparently not, because it quickly went to 100.
J'accuse! A racist in our midst! I've been found out. He then deleted his Discord account that he had created hours earlier. Pretty short temper for a guy with $25m on the line lol.
(Side note, I've been to France a few times and it's always been very pleasant, so I don't actually think French people are rude. Maybe he is from French-speaking Montreal, though, a city brimming with impossibly rude people).
Anyway, to cap off this bizarre encounter, ChatGPT definitely thinks this person is French now, because of his use of "And so ?" in the conversation which would correlate to "Et alors ?" a common phrase in French. It also took the ""What this tweet shouldl make me feel ?" as a bungled way of saying "Que devrais-je ressentir ?"
Whoever or whatever Fredi is, maybe a Frenchman betting a boatload or a Frenchman as the point man of some scheme, Fredi clearly wants it all to remain a mystery and doesn't have any patience for someone with an alternate view.
- CONSERVATIVES LOVE INACCURATE PREDICTION MARKETS -
Conservatives have a storied and varied relationship with prediction markets.
They are enamored and obsessed with the lore that nobody predicted Trump or Brexit, and the polls were all wrong (and they're right). This has become their raison d'etre in betting, and the events around which all bets on politics now rotate -- polls are cited when they agree, and polls are declared always wrong then they disagree. This interesting strategy of 'I can't be wrong' has had mixed results and some colossal embarrassments (like the 2022 "Red Wave" that never materialized and was very profitable to bet against).
I find that left-leaning folks are more analytical in their betting, and tend to worry that they're going to lose on a near constant basis.
But to the point here -- one single bettor ramming through huge bets to prop up a Republican presidential candidate has occurred twice before, back in the olden days.
I remember in 2008, I would stay up at all hours with one eye on Call of Duty and the other eye on the order book waiting for a single bettor to show up. In an instant, bids would come barreling in on McCain and push his price up massively. It was a feeding frenzy to see who could match him first, before he disappeared again. A brand-new-on-the-scene Nate Silver was noticing it and writing about it, and Paul Krugman wrote about it as well. The bettor probably flushed around $1m in bets down the drain on McCain:
https://t.co/9IApRSBUfy
And then again in 2012, there was a gigantic bettor buying Romney up that @rajivatbarnard wrote about. This time $4 million:
https://t.co/dtpWKQhzwW
Both times those people got BTFO. And if the point was to prop up the candidates, I don't think the price movements mattered a single iota to a single vote.
This doesn't mean that the $25m man Fredi will get BTFO, only that one person barreling in with huge bets pushing the odds around doesn't necessarily equate with specialized knowledge. It could just be a fool.
The odds are not reality, and the odds are probably not efficient. The odds will be wrong in predictable ways, but for most people including probably myself, the predictable way won't be apparent until the dust has settled. And then with the benefit of hindsight, it'll be forever obvious that of course [insert winner] was the smart bet because [insert reason]. Maybe Fredi has the answer already.
- FIN -
P.S. If you have any tips on who Fredi is, feel free to let me know!](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaBux34XAAAJrkL.jpg)
![Domahhhh's tweet photo. A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 -- the person or entity -- who is singlehandedly rocketing up the price of Trump on prediction markets around the world.
Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive guy! We'll get back to that.
I'll also explain that large bettors unloading millions on Republicans right before election day is nothing new under the sun.
- BIG TRUMP PRICE MOVES -
Trump has hit 60% to win, and 36% to win the popular vote. Both prices now have at least a 5% Fredi premium (maybe more like 8%? either way, just a guess). So betting on Trump will be ~5% more expensive, and betting on Kamala will be ~5% less expensive due to a single trader.
Why is there a premium off a single trader? He's bet $25 million (and counting) -- all of it on Trump. He has dumped in a large portion of that in the past two weeks. And by wanting so much Trump in a short time span, he is skewing the supply/demand equation; there is nowhere near enough demand for that much Kamala at the current prices, so the price has to move a lot to accomodate the demand for Trump. And then the price moves on every market around the world as people arbitrage it.
How'd I get to $25m? Because Fredi is not just loading up his account and making bets. Fredi9999 is, I believe, creating new Polymarket accounts so it doesn't look like a single trader. Fredi9999 the OG account, second account PrincessCaro, third account Michie, and the most recent account Theo. Mark-to-market, the accounts have $28m in positions from those $25m in bets.
How are they connected? The accounts all receive very large deposits from Kraken (usually denominated as exactly $500k or $1m deposits), and immediately start betting on Trump everywhere (and only Trump, 0 interest in anything else on the site). Theo received a large deposit, and plowed it into Trump winning the popular vote, sending it from 26% to 39% in a few hours.
I pinged @fozzydiablo about these four accounts, who posted his findings here, showing patterns that definitely imply the same user is controlling all 4 accounts:
https://t.co/dSYfZgWefM
One interesting note is none of the accounts appear to receive deposits on weekends, which would suggest that the person is not necessarily crypto native and is wiring the money to Kraken from a bank. Why they're doing it piecemeal is anybody's guess.
- MONSIEUR WHALE? -
As far as WHO is betting $25 million on Trump -- all of the accounts are names or nicknames with no apparent geographic connection. You could maybe see a German connection in the names, or maybe Swiss as a melting pot.
But the real clues (or maybe misleading clues) came when Fredi and Michie both started commenting on the site, sometimes inexplicably silly comments that misunderstood basic statistical concepts or misspelled random words. Sometimes a lot of bravado about how confident they are that Trump will win and how badly the prices are wrong.
Small sample of comments below -- one where he suggests you can arbitrage Pennsylvania & the general election. And one where he implies each state is an uncorrelated independent event. You can see the uncommon spacing around punctuation which strongly implies a French speaker. The French also use ellipses much more than other languages utilize them.
Fredi uses a mix of British and American english in their comments, sometimes using the 'ou' in a word like favourite and sometimes dropping it. They called math "maths" which is the British version. All in all, AI thinks the writing/spelling/weird misspellings points to a Frenchman who has learned British English and spent time in America.
Or maybe it's all a LARP and somebody is just having fun pretending with all of this, trying to seem unsophisticated on purpose. Maybe it's connected to Elon or some other huge GOP megadonor. I have no idea, and it's a bit of a game to figure out what is going on here.
Maybe it's actually GCR despite GCR saying it's not him. GCR's guess is it is someone trying to send Bitcoin skyrocketing, which is as good an explanation as any (Bitcoin has skyrocketed along with Trump's odds).
Why do I care about this? Good question! It's important to know who you're betting against. Is this a super smart trading firm and I should be scared? Is this an idiot betting on what he wants to happen and I should be happy? Is this just a lame attempt to give the impression that Trump is winning by a lot with 0 other motives? It's hard to figure out what is going on here. Almost always the answer in similar situations is not some big conspiracy, and it's actually pretty simple. So my best guess is it is a wildly risky-loving uber-wealthy Frenchman who is pretty damn sure that Trump is going to win. But this is also a situation without precedent. $25m all-in on Trump is a massive, massive bet. A little bit of obfuscation in the accounts is also in play. There's undoubtedly some interesting story underlying all of this.
-FIRST CONTACT & J'ACCUSE! -
I responded to a Michie comment on the site and asked to talk with him.
After a few days, he acquiesced and created a brand new Discord account to talk with me. He joined the Polymarket discord and gave his biography for unclear reasons in a channel that no one uses.
I DMed him and some small talk ensued, initially about Trump, and he very quickly got annoyed that I thought Trump could win the popular vote and still lose (it's very unlikely, but not that far-fetched, and what I would consider by far the funniest outcome possible). He accused me of insulting his intelligence, etc. etc. Arrogant for no reason in particular.
So I just decided to ask him directly about the account connections. Not received well!
And his whole vibe was standoffish and rude, and I also called him out on it -- in what I thought was a very tame and teasing manner. Apparently not, because it quickly went to 100.
J'accuse! A racist in our midst! I've been found out. He then deleted his Discord account that he had created hours earlier. Pretty short temper for a guy with $25m on the line lol.
(Side note, I've been to France a few times and it's always been very pleasant, so I don't actually think French people are rude. Maybe he is from French-speaking Montreal, though, a city brimming with impossibly rude people).
Anyway, to cap off this bizarre encounter, ChatGPT definitely thinks this person is French now, because of his use of "And so ?" in the conversation which would correlate to "Et alors ?" a common phrase in French. It also took the ""What this tweet shouldl make me feel ?" as a bungled way of saying "Que devrais-je ressentir ?"
Whoever or whatever Fredi is, maybe a Frenchman betting a boatload or a Frenchman as the point man of some scheme, Fredi clearly wants it all to remain a mystery and doesn't have any patience for someone with an alternate view.
- CONSERVATIVES LOVE INACCURATE PREDICTION MARKETS -
Conservatives have a storied and varied relationship with prediction markets.
They are enamored and obsessed with the lore that nobody predicted Trump or Brexit, and the polls were all wrong (and they're right). This has become their raison d'etre in betting, and the events around which all bets on politics now rotate -- polls are cited when they agree, and polls are declared always wrong then they disagree. This interesting strategy of 'I can't be wrong' has had mixed results and some colossal embarrassments (like the 2022 "Red Wave" that never materialized and was very profitable to bet against).
I find that left-leaning folks are more analytical in their betting, and tend to worry that they're going to lose on a near constant basis.
But to the point here -- one single bettor ramming through huge bets to prop up a Republican presidential candidate has occurred twice before, back in the olden days.
I remember in 2008, I would stay up at all hours with one eye on Call of Duty and the other eye on the order book waiting for a single bettor to show up. In an instant, bids would come barreling in on McCain and push his price up massively. It was a feeding frenzy to see who could match him first, before he disappeared again. A brand-new-on-the-scene Nate Silver was noticing it and writing about it, and Paul Krugman wrote about it as well. The bettor probably flushed around $1m in bets down the drain on McCain:
https://t.co/9IApRSBUfy
And then again in 2012, there was a gigantic bettor buying Romney up that @rajivatbarnard wrote about. This time $4 million:
https://t.co/dtpWKQhzwW
Both times those people got BTFO. And if the point was to prop up the candidates, I don't think the price movements mattered a single iota to a single vote.
This doesn't mean that the $25m man Fredi will get BTFO, only that one person barreling in with huge bets pushing the odds around doesn't necessarily equate with specialized knowledge. It could just be a fool.
The odds are not reality, and the odds are probably not efficient. The odds will be wrong in predictable ways, but for most people including probably myself, the predictable way won't be apparent until the dust has settled. And then with the benefit of hindsight, it'll be forever obvious that of course [insert winner] was the smart bet because [insert reason]. Maybe Fredi has the answer already.
- FIN -
P.S. If you have any tips on who Fredi is, feel free to let me know!](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaBuoQSWAAACdpV.png)
Olivia
Online
James Piette
@PietteJ
I am a nerd, but not a geek... I think. PhD in Stats from @Wharton.
Flipadelphia
Joined July 2011
425 Following
271 Followers
1.6K Posts
@HighyieldHarry I tend to disagree with that sentiment when you are young. You don’t know enough to know what you enjoy.
Reese Witherspoon spoke about it recently.
Lean into your talents, not your dreams.
You can read that as stick to your strengths, not your passions.
https://t.co/65v7vBcTBN
@PlusEVAnalytics They already do that, so I find it hard to believe the platform will attract much liquidity for this purpose.
Likely for positive PR.
Many startups have tried to build this exact marketplace and failed FWIW.
@HarryDCrane I‘m down if yall have room
@betlikeharout Baseball.
The most competitive, easiest-to-model market on the planet, and I’m including soccer.
Constantly a battle, and the margins are so thin thanks to synthetic holds being so low, it’s often difficult to even evaluate if you actually have edge when you‘re up.
Who to follow
Ron Yurko
@Stat_Ron
Assistant Teaching Professor, Director of Carnegie Mellon #SportsAnalytics Center https://t.co/bH22Ka8HwC @CMU_StatDS
Luke Benz
@recspecs730
Statistician @EliLillyandCo | PhD @HarvardBiostats | @Yale ('19)
Interests: Sports/Stats/Health
John Ezekowitz
@JohnEzekowitz
Formerly analytics consultant for @suns. Now working for Big Spreadsheet.
Advisor to https://t.co/AHCGnsIXsB
Chief Data Officer: The Shotgun Start
12 pt touchdown, those are the best.
Thanks crappy play-by-play data!
@PlusEVAnalytics Incentives are typically offered by the GMs, not the agents, as a way to circumvent cap considerations.
https://t.co/ze29OCzLE0
@PlusEVAnalytics You’re telling me ice cream doesn’t make people more likely to drown?
@HarryDCrane @nytimes I believe that guy was discovered by someone unaffiliated with polymarket on Twitter
https://t.co/201spTR1fY
A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 -- the person or entity -- who is singlehandedly rocketing up the price of Trump on prediction markets around the world.
Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive guy! We'll get back to that.
I'll also explain that large bettors unloading millions on Republicans right before election day is nothing new under the sun.
- BIG TRUMP PRICE MOVES -
Trump has hit 60% to win, and 36% to win the popular vote. Both prices now have at least a 5% Fredi premium (maybe more like 8%? either way, just a guess). So betting on Trump will be ~5% more expensive, and betting on Kamala will be ~5% less expensive due to a single trader.
Why is there a premium off a single trader? He's bet $25 million (and counting) -- all of it on Trump. He has dumped in a large portion of that in the past two weeks. And by wanting so much Trump in a short time span, he is skewing the supply/demand equation; there is nowhere near enough demand for that much Kamala at the current prices, so the price has to move a lot to accomodate the demand for Trump. And then the price moves on every market around the world as people arbitrage it.
How'd I get to $25m? Because Fredi is not just loading up his account and making bets. Fredi9999 is, I believe, creating new Polymarket accounts so it doesn't look like a single trader. Fredi9999 the OG account, second account PrincessCaro, third account Michie, and the most recent account Theo. Mark-to-market, the accounts have $28m in positions from those $25m in bets.
How are they connected? The accounts all receive very large deposits from Kraken (usually denominated as exactly $500k or $1m deposits), and immediately start betting on Trump everywhere (and only Trump, 0 interest in anything else on the site). Theo received a large deposit, and plowed it into Trump winning the popular vote, sending it from 26% to 39% in a few hours.
I pinged @fozzydiablo about these four accounts, who posted his findings here, showing patterns that definitely imply the same user is controlling all 4 accounts:
https://t.co/dSYfZgWefM
One interesting note is none of the accounts appear to receive deposits on weekends, which would suggest that the person is not necessarily crypto native and is wiring the money to Kraken from a bank. Why they're doing it piecemeal is anybody's guess.
- MONSIEUR WHALE? -
As far as WHO is betting $25 million on Trump -- all of the accounts are names or nicknames with no apparent geographic connection. You could maybe see a German connection in the names, or maybe Swiss as a melting pot.
But the real clues (or maybe misleading clues) came when Fredi and Michie both started commenting on the site, sometimes inexplicably silly comments that misunderstood basic statistical concepts or misspelled random words. Sometimes a lot of bravado about how confident they are that Trump will win and how badly the prices are wrong.
Small sample of comments below -- one where he suggests you can arbitrage Pennsylvania & the general election. And one where he implies each state is an uncorrelated independent event. You can see the uncommon spacing around punctuation which strongly implies a French speaker. The French also use ellipses much more than other languages utilize them.
Fredi uses a mix of British and American english in their comments, sometimes using the 'ou' in a word like favourite and sometimes dropping it. They called math "maths" which is the British version. All in all, AI thinks the writing/spelling/weird misspellings points to a Frenchman who has learned British English and spent time in America.
Or maybe it's all a LARP and somebody is just having fun pretending with all of this, trying to seem unsophisticated on purpose. Maybe it's connected to Elon or some other huge GOP megadonor. I have no idea, and it's a bit of a game to figure out what is going on here.
Maybe it's actually GCR despite GCR saying it's not him. GCR's guess is it is someone trying to send Bitcoin skyrocketing, which is as good an explanation as any (Bitcoin has skyrocketed along with Trump's odds).
Why do I care about this? Good question! It's important to know who you're betting against. Is this a super smart trading firm and I should be scared? Is this an idiot betting on what he wants to happen and I should be happy? Is this just a lame attempt to give the impression that Trump is winning by a lot with 0 other motives? It's hard to figure out what is going on here. Almost always the answer in similar situations is not some big conspiracy, and it's actually pretty simple. So my best guess is it is a wildly risky-loving uber-wealthy Frenchman who is pretty damn sure that Trump is going to win. But this is also a situation without precedent. $25m all-in on Trump is a massive, massive bet. A little bit of obfuscation in the accounts is also in play. There's undoubtedly some interesting story underlying all of this.
-FIRST CONTACT & J'ACCUSE! -
I responded to a Michie comment on the site and asked to talk with him.
After a few days, he acquiesced and created a brand new Discord account to talk with me. He joined the Polymarket discord and gave his biography for unclear reasons in a channel that no one uses.
I DMed him and some small talk ensued, initially about Trump, and he very quickly got annoyed that I thought Trump could win the popular vote and still lose (it's very unlikely, but not that far-fetched, and what I would consider by far the funniest outcome possible). He accused me of insulting his intelligence, etc. etc. Arrogant for no reason in particular.
So I just decided to ask him directly about the account connections. Not received well!
And his whole vibe was standoffish and rude, and I also called him out on it -- in what I thought was a very tame and teasing manner. Apparently not, because it quickly went to 100.
J'accuse! A racist in our midst! I've been found out. He then deleted his Discord account that he had created hours earlier. Pretty short temper for a guy with $25m on the line lol.
(Side note, I've been to France a few times and it's always been very pleasant, so I don't actually think French people are rude. Maybe he is from French-speaking Montreal, though, a city brimming with impossibly rude people).
Anyway, to cap off this bizarre encounter, ChatGPT definitely thinks this person is French now, because of his use of "And so ?" in the conversation which would correlate to "Et alors ?" a common phrase in French. It also took the ""What this tweet shouldl make me feel ?" as a bungled way of saying "Que devrais-je ressentir ?"
Whoever or whatever Fredi is, maybe a Frenchman betting a boatload or a Frenchman as the point man of some scheme, Fredi clearly wants it all to remain a mystery and doesn't have any patience for someone with an alternate view.
- CONSERVATIVES LOVE INACCURATE PREDICTION MARKETS -
Conservatives have a storied and varied relationship with prediction markets.
They are enamored and obsessed with the lore that nobody predicted Trump or Brexit, and the polls were all wrong (and they're right). This has become their raison d'etre in betting, and the events around which all bets on politics now rotate -- polls are cited when they agree, and polls are declared always wrong then they disagree. This interesting strategy of 'I can't be wrong' has had mixed results and some colossal embarrassments (like the 2022 "Red Wave" that never materialized and was very profitable to bet against).
I find that left-leaning folks are more analytical in their betting, and tend to worry that they're going to lose on a near constant basis.
But to the point here -- one single bettor ramming through huge bets to prop up a Republican presidential candidate has occurred twice before, back in the olden days.
I remember in 2008, I would stay up at all hours with one eye on Call of Duty and the other eye on the order book waiting for a single bettor to show up. In an instant, bids would come barreling in on McCain and push his price up massively. It was a feeding frenzy to see who could match him first, before he disappeared again. A brand-new-on-the-scene Nate Silver was noticing it and writing about it, and Paul Krugman wrote about it as well. The bettor probably flushed around $1m in bets down the drain on McCain:
https://t.co/9IApRSBUfy
And then again in 2012, there was a gigantic bettor buying Romney up that @rajivatbarnard wrote about. This time $4 million:
https://t.co/dtpWKQhzwW
Both times those people got BTFO. And if the point was to prop up the candidates, I don't think the price movements mattered a single iota to a single vote.
This doesn't mean that the $25m man Fredi will get BTFO, only that one person barreling in with huge bets pushing the odds around doesn't necessarily equate with specialized knowledge. It could just be a fool.
The odds are not reality, and the odds are probably not efficient. The odds will be wrong in predictable ways, but for most people including probably myself, the predictable way won't be apparent until the dust has settled. And then with the benefit of hindsight, it'll be forever obvious that of course [insert winner] was the smart bet because [insert reason]. Maybe Fredi has the answer already.
- FIN -
P.S. If you have any tips on who Fredi is, feel free to let me know!
![Domahhhh's tweet photo. A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 -- the person or entity -- who is singlehandedly rocketing up the price of Trump on prediction markets around the world.
Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive guy! We'll get back to that.
I'll also explain that large bettors unloading millions on Republicans right before election day is nothing new under the sun.
- BIG TRUMP PRICE MOVES -
Trump has hit 60% to win, and 36% to win the popular vote. Both prices now have at least a 5% Fredi premium (maybe more like 8%? either way, just a guess). So betting on Trump will be ~5% more expensive, and betting on Kamala will be ~5% less expensive due to a single trader.
Why is there a premium off a single trader? He's bet $25 million (and counting) -- all of it on Trump. He has dumped in a large portion of that in the past two weeks. And by wanting so much Trump in a short time span, he is skewing the supply/demand equation; there is nowhere near enough demand for that much Kamala at the current prices, so the price has to move a lot to accomodate the demand for Trump. And then the price moves on every market around the world as people arbitrage it.
How'd I get to $25m? Because Fredi is not just loading up his account and making bets. Fredi9999 is, I believe, creating new Polymarket accounts so it doesn't look like a single trader. Fredi9999 the OG account, second account PrincessCaro, third account Michie, and the most recent account Theo. Mark-to-market, the accounts have $28m in positions from those $25m in bets.
How are they connected? The accounts all receive very large deposits from Kraken (usually denominated as exactly $500k or $1m deposits), and immediately start betting on Trump everywhere (and only Trump, 0 interest in anything else on the site). Theo received a large deposit, and plowed it into Trump winning the popular vote, sending it from 26% to 39% in a few hours.
I pinged @fozzydiablo about these four accounts, who posted his findings here, showing patterns that definitely imply the same user is controlling all 4 accounts:
https://t.co/dSYfZgWefM
One interesting note is none of the accounts appear to receive deposits on weekends, which would suggest that the person is not necessarily crypto native and is wiring the money to Kraken from a bank. Why they're doing it piecemeal is anybody's guess.
- MONSIEUR WHALE? -
As far as WHO is betting $25 million on Trump -- all of the accounts are names or nicknames with no apparent geographic connection. You could maybe see a German connection in the names, or maybe Swiss as a melting pot.
But the real clues (or maybe misleading clues) came when Fredi and Michie both started commenting on the site, sometimes inexplicably silly comments that misunderstood basic statistical concepts or misspelled random words. Sometimes a lot of bravado about how confident they are that Trump will win and how badly the prices are wrong.
Small sample of comments below -- one where he suggests you can arbitrage Pennsylvania & the general election. And one where he implies each state is an uncorrelated independent event. You can see the uncommon spacing around punctuation which strongly implies a French speaker. The French also use ellipses much more than other languages utilize them.
Fredi uses a mix of British and American english in their comments, sometimes using the 'ou' in a word like favourite and sometimes dropping it. They called math "maths" which is the British version. All in all, AI thinks the writing/spelling/weird misspellings points to a Frenchman who has learned British English and spent time in America.
Or maybe it's all a LARP and somebody is just having fun pretending with all of this, trying to seem unsophisticated on purpose. Maybe it's connected to Elon or some other huge GOP megadonor. I have no idea, and it's a bit of a game to figure out what is going on here.
Maybe it's actually GCR despite GCR saying it's not him. GCR's guess is it is someone trying to send Bitcoin skyrocketing, which is as good an explanation as any (Bitcoin has skyrocketed along with Trump's odds).
Why do I care about this? Good question! It's important to know who you're betting against. Is this a super smart trading firm and I should be scared? Is this an idiot betting on what he wants to happen and I should be happy? Is this just a lame attempt to give the impression that Trump is winning by a lot with 0 other motives? It's hard to figure out what is going on here. Almost always the answer in similar situations is not some big conspiracy, and it's actually pretty simple. So my best guess is it is a wildly risky-loving uber-wealthy Frenchman who is pretty damn sure that Trump is going to win. But this is also a situation without precedent. $25m all-in on Trump is a massive, massive bet. A little bit of obfuscation in the accounts is also in play. There's undoubtedly some interesting story underlying all of this.
-FIRST CONTACT & J'ACCUSE! -
I responded to a Michie comment on the site and asked to talk with him.
After a few days, he acquiesced and created a brand new Discord account to talk with me. He joined the Polymarket discord and gave his biography for unclear reasons in a channel that no one uses.
I DMed him and some small talk ensued, initially about Trump, and he very quickly got annoyed that I thought Trump could win the popular vote and still lose (it's very unlikely, but not that far-fetched, and what I would consider by far the funniest outcome possible). He accused me of insulting his intelligence, etc. etc. Arrogant for no reason in particular.
So I just decided to ask him directly about the account connections. Not received well!
And his whole vibe was standoffish and rude, and I also called him out on it -- in what I thought was a very tame and teasing manner. Apparently not, because it quickly went to 100.
J'accuse! A racist in our midst! I've been found out. He then deleted his Discord account that he had created hours earlier. Pretty short temper for a guy with $25m on the line lol.
(Side note, I've been to France a few times and it's always been very pleasant, so I don't actually think French people are rude. Maybe he is from French-speaking Montreal, though, a city brimming with impossibly rude people).
Anyway, to cap off this bizarre encounter, ChatGPT definitely thinks this person is French now, because of his use of "And so ?" in the conversation which would correlate to "Et alors ?" a common phrase in French. It also took the ""What this tweet shouldl make me feel ?" as a bungled way of saying "Que devrais-je ressentir ?"
Whoever or whatever Fredi is, maybe a Frenchman betting a boatload or a Frenchman as the point man of some scheme, Fredi clearly wants it all to remain a mystery and doesn't have any patience for someone with an alternate view.
- CONSERVATIVES LOVE INACCURATE PREDICTION MARKETS -
Conservatives have a storied and varied relationship with prediction markets.
They are enamored and obsessed with the lore that nobody predicted Trump or Brexit, and the polls were all wrong (and they're right). This has become their raison d'etre in betting, and the events around which all bets on politics now rotate -- polls are cited when they agree, and polls are declared always wrong then they disagree. This interesting strategy of 'I can't be wrong' has had mixed results and some colossal embarrassments (like the 2022 "Red Wave" that never materialized and was very profitable to bet against).
I find that left-leaning folks are more analytical in their betting, and tend to worry that they're going to lose on a near constant basis.
But to the point here -- one single bettor ramming through huge bets to prop up a Republican presidential candidate has occurred twice before, back in the olden days.
I remember in 2008, I would stay up at all hours with one eye on Call of Duty and the other eye on the order book waiting for a single bettor to show up. In an instant, bids would come barreling in on McCain and push his price up massively. It was a feeding frenzy to see who could match him first, before he disappeared again. A brand-new-on-the-scene Nate Silver was noticing it and writing about it, and Paul Krugman wrote about it as well. The bettor probably flushed around $1m in bets down the drain on McCain:
https://t.co/9IApRSBUfy
And then again in 2012, there was a gigantic bettor buying Romney up that @rajivatbarnard wrote about. This time $4 million:
https://t.co/dtpWKQhzwW
Both times those people got BTFO. And if the point was to prop up the candidates, I don't think the price movements mattered a single iota to a single vote.
This doesn't mean that the $25m man Fredi will get BTFO, only that one person barreling in with huge bets pushing the odds around doesn't necessarily equate with specialized knowledge. It could just be a fool.
The odds are not reality, and the odds are probably not efficient. The odds will be wrong in predictable ways, but for most people including probably myself, the predictable way won't be apparent until the dust has settled. And then with the benefit of hindsight, it'll be forever obvious that of course [insert winner] was the smart bet because [insert reason]. Maybe Fredi has the answer already.
- FIN -
P.S. If you have any tips on who Fredi is, feel free to let me know!](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GaBvBOAX0AAZ540.jpg)
@drob So matter of taste, understood!
@marshal How do y'all differ from Turing?
That's the dream.
As got a lead in the 9th, blew it, then after pitching just last night, Miller got brought in the 10th to secure victory.
Starting to build himself a resume for Best Closer in Baseball.
Medieval Mason Miller has just gone medieval your ass.
@RufusPeabody What makes this unique from just doing brier between your model and close is that your look at specifically the "selection bias" of the wagers you chose.
To be clear, I like the xROI a lot; I'm just trying to think of a way to answer this probabilistically.
Great work!
@RufusPeabody Thought about this more.
Yes, you need to make assumptions, but doesn't have to be expected return.
It could be internal model probabilities.
Setting the null to your model, the problem is "classic stats", asking is your model-defined probability distribution truth?
Very intelligent, not so disciplined
Once again, politicians sticking their nose into sports having unattended consequences.
PIT @ BUF was rotation 145, now 153 after postponement.
Software engineers must remap odds feeds, bet slips, and more.
But NY Gov Hochul favors "safety" and "lives" over developer time.
Sad.
@UnabatedSports Beta-binomial has wonderful properties for "quick-and-dirty" modeling.
See CLV calculations in subscription / discrete time settings.
Incredibly accurate and could be fit in Excel!
https://t.co/10lybSGlNy
@RufusPeabody As George Box famously said, all models are wrong, but some are useful.
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